Abstract
Accounting for the increasing uncertainties related to forecast of renewables is becoming an essential requirement while assessing the security of future power system scenarios. Project iTesla in the Seventh Framework Program (FP7) of the European Union (EU) tackles these needs and reaches several major objectives, including the development of a security platform architecture. In particular, the platform implements a stochastic dependence model to simulate a reasonable cloud of plausible 'future' states - due to renewable forecast - around the expected state, and evaluates the security on relevant states after sampling the cloud of uncertainty. The paper focuses on the proposed model for the uncertainty and its exploitation in power system security assessment process and it reports the relevant validation results. Copyright © 2019 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

Abstract
This paper presents a generic framework to evaluate and compare the quality of the uncertainties provided by probabilistic forecasts of power system state when used to perform security assessment for branch overloads. Besides exploiting advanced univariate and multivariate metrics that are traditionally used in weather prediction, the evaluation is complemented by assessing the benefits from exploiting probabilistic forecasts over the current practices of using deterministic forecasts of the system operating conditions. Another important feature of this framework is the provision of parameters tuning when applying flow probabilistic forecasts to perform security assessment for branch overloads. The quality and scalability of this framework is demonstrated and validated on recent historical data of the French transmission system. Although being developed to address branch overload problems, with proper adaptations, this work can be extended to other power system security problems.

Abstract
This work consists in assessing a real islanded power system from a dynamic security point of view, to support the planned installation, in the near future, of a hydro power plant with pumped storage, aiming to increase the integration of renewable energy. The analysed hydro power plant will include a Pelton turbine as it is a high-head hydro facility. Due to economic reasons, the adopted water pumping technology consists in fixed speed pumps coupled to induction motors with direct grid connection. It was possible to verify through detailed simulations of this power system's time domain behaviour that, even though the expected installation of this new power plant will bring additional frequency stability constraints, a robust technical solution may be found dealing with the new constraints without increasing the complexity of operation in this islanded power system. The conclusions obtained from this specific case are also valid for similar isolated power systems, namely when hydro pumping stations are being considered to increase time-variable renewable generation penetration.

Abstract
In this paper, a validation framework is proposed to evaluate the quality of uncertainty forecasts, when used to perform branch flow security assessment. The consistency between probabilistic forecasts and observations and the sharpness of the uncertainty forecasts is verified with advanced metrics widely used in weather prediction. The evaluation is completed by assessing the added value of exploiting uncertainty forecasts over the TSO current practices of using deterministic forecasts. For electric power industry, this proposed validation framework provides a way to compare the performance among alternative uncertainty models, when used to perform security assessment in power systems. The quality of the proposed metrics is illustrated and validated on historical data of the French transmission system.

Abstract
This paper addresses the dynamic stability analysis of an islanded power system regarding the installation of a reversible hydro power plant for increasing renewable energy integration. Being a high-head facility, the hydro power plant consists of separated pumps and turbines (Pelton type). In order to properly support the identification of hydro pumps connection requirements and the technology to be used, different options were taken into consideration, namely: fixed speed pumps coupled to induction machines directly connected to the grid and adjustable speed pumps supplied by a drive system. Extensive numerical simulations of the power system's dynamic behaviour response allowed the evaluation of the hydro power plant's role for the purpose of grid stability conditions. These simulations showed that the high head hydro power installation provides a marginal contribution to system frequency regulation when explored in turbine operation mode, leading to a reversible power station with a single penstock. Moreover, due to the significant additional system load introduced by the hydro pumping units, the obtained results clearly indicate that supplementary regulation flexibility is required to attend the need of assuring the stable operation of the system in case of critical disturbances such as grid faults. The study case demonstrates that, although the foreseen operation of a reversible hydro power plant creates new security challenges to overcome in an autonomous power system, robust technical solutions can be identified without increasing, from the local system operator's perspective, the operation complexity of the power system.