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Publications

2025

Optimizing Credit Risk Prediction for Peer-to-Peer Lending Using Machine Learning

Authors
Souadda, LI; Halitim, AR; Benilles, B; Oliveira, JM; Ramos, P;

Publication
FORECASTING

Abstract
Hyperparameter optimization (HPO) is critical for enhancing the predictive performance of machine learning models in credit risk assessment for peer-to-peer (P2P) lending. This study evaluates four HPO methods, Grid Search, Random Search, Hyperopt, and Optuna, across four models, Logistic Regression, Random Forest, XGBoost, and LightGBM, using three real-world datasets (Lending Club, Australia, Taiwan). We assess predictive accuracy (AUC, Sensitivity, Specificity, G-Mean), computational efficiency, robustness, and interpretability. LightGBM achieves the highest AUC (e.g., 70.77% on Lending Club, 93.25% on Australia, 77.85% on Taiwan), with XGBoost performing comparably. Bayesian methods (Hyperopt, Optuna) match or approach Grid Search's accuracy while reducing runtime by up to 75.7-fold (e.g., 3.19 vs. 241.47 min for LightGBM on Lending Club). A sensitivity analysis confirms robust hyperparameter configurations, with AUC variations typically below 0.4% under +/- 10% perturbations. A feature importance analysis, using gain and SHAP metrics, identifies debt-to-income ratio and employment title as key default predictors, with stable rankings (Spearman correlation > 0.95, p<0.01) across tuning methods, enhancing model interpretability. Operational impact depends on data quality, scalable infrastructure, fairness audits for features like employment title, and stakeholder collaboration to ensure compliance with regulations like the EU AI Act and U.S. Equal Credit Opportunity Act. These findings advocate Bayesian HPO and ensemble models in P2P lending, offering scalable, transparent, and fair solutions for default prediction, with future research suggested to explore advanced resampling, cost-sensitive metrics, and feature interactions.

2025

Leakage-Free Probabilistic Jasmin Programs

Authors
Almeida, JB; Firsov, D; Oliveira, T; Unruh, D;

Publication
PROCEEDINGS OF THE 14TH ACM SIGPLAN INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON CERTIFIED PROGRAMS AND PROOFS, CPP 2025

Abstract
This paper presents a semantic characterization of leakage-freeness through timing side-channels for Jasmin programs. Our characterization covers probabilistic Jasmin programs that are not constant-time. In addition, we provide a characterization in terms of probabilistic relational Hoare logic and prove the equivalence between both definitions. We also prove that our new characterizations are compositional and relate our new definitions to existing ones from prior work, which could only be applied to deterministic programs. To provide practical evidence, we use the Jasmin framework to develop a rejection sampling algorithm and provide an EasyCrypt proof that ensures the algorithm's implementation is leakage-free while not being constant-time.

2025

“Tales of Peso da Régua: The Enigma of the Ancient Vines” Connection between Peso da Régua and Bento Gonçalves through an Immersive Experience in Cibricity

Authors
Sitnievski, N; Schlemmer, E;

Publication
Practitioner Proceedings of the 11th International Conference of the Immersive Learning Research Network

Abstract

2025

Can a large language model replace humans at rating lexical semantic relations strength?

Authors
André Fernandes dos Santos; José Paulo Leal;

Publication
Computational Linguistics

Abstract
Abstract This paper investigates the ability of large language models (LLMs) to evaluate semantic relations between word pairs by examining their alignment with human-generated semantic ratings. Semantic relations represent the degree of connection (e.g., relatedness or similarity) between linguistic elements and are traditionally validated against human-annotated datasets. Due to the challenges of building such datasets and recent progress in LLMs’ capacity to model human-like understanding, we explore whether LLMs can serve as reliable substitutes for traditional human ratings. We conducted experiments using multiple LLMs from OpenAI, Google, Mistral, and Anthropic, evaluating their performance across diverse English and Portuguese semantic relations datasets. We included in the analysis PAP900, a recently published dataset of semantic relations in Portuguese, to examine the influence of prior exposure to the dataset on LLM training. The results show that the LLM predictions correlate strongly with human ratings. The findings reveal the potential of LLMs to supplement or replace traditional semantic measure algorithms and crowd-sourced human annotations in semantic tasks.

2025

Solar energy generation in three dimensions: The hexagonal pyramid

Authors
Andrade, BPB; Andrade, ACB; Lacerda, DP; Piran, FAS;

Publication
SOLAR ENERGY

Abstract
Photovoltaic (PV) panels serve as a standard solution for the collection of solar energy. The flat photovoltaic solar plate design has been the most adopted by the market for its ease of installation. However, this design faces limitations due to geometric constraints and the sun's trajectory through the day. Inspiration was drawn from nature to overcome these limitations by utilizing the tridimensional hexagonal shape observed in honeycomb structures. The used approach aimed to explore a novel design that can reduce the constraints of flat PV panels while maximizing energy output. The unique 3D arrangement of the hexagonal pyramid enables the installation of mirrors inside to ease the reflection of photons and to increase energy production compared to flat panels. Furthermore, this design presents an opportunity to incorporate a water capture and heating system, thereby increasing the system's overall usage.

2025

A Multimodal Agentic AI for the Autonomous Precise Landing of UAVs

Authors
Neves, FSP; Branco, LM; Claro, R; Pinto, AM;

Publication

Abstract
Autonomous landing for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) requires both precision and resilience against environmental uncertainties, capabilities that current approaches struggle to deliver. This paper presents a novel learning-based solution that combines an advanced multimodal transformer-based detector with a reinforcement learning formulation to achieve reliable autonomous landing behavior across varying scenario uncertainties. Beyond the integration of multimodality for robust target detection, this research incorporates a comprehensive analysis of the impact of state representation on decision-making performance. The proposed methodology is validated through extensive simulation studies and real-world field experiments conducted on physical UAV platforms under natural wind disturbances, demonstrating reliable transfer from simulated training environments to controlled outdoor conditions. Field experiments across varying initial conditions and wind stress confirm the system’s robustness, achieving landing precision of 0.10 ± 0.08 meters in outdoor trials, demonstrating centimeter-level accuracy that surpasses the meter-level precision of global positioning systems.

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