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Publications

2020

Power system flexibility improvement with a focus on demand response and wind power variability

Authors
Dadkhah, A; Vahidi, B; Shafie khah, M; Catalao, JPS;

Publication
IET RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION

Abstract
Unpredictable system component contingencies have imposed vulnerability on power systems, which are under high renewables penetration nowadays. Intermittent nature of renewable energy sources has made this unpredictability even worse than before and calls for excellent adaptability. This study proposes a flexible security-constrained structure to meet the superior flexibility by coordination of generation and demand sides. In the suggested model, demand-side flexibility is enabled via an optimum real-time (RT) pricing program, while the commitment of conventional units through providing up and down operational reserves improves the flexibility of supply-side. The behaviour of two types of customers is characterised to define an accurate model of demand response and the effect of customers' preferences on the optimal operation of power networks. Conclusively, the proposed model optimises RT prices in the face of contingency events as well as wind power penetration. System operators together with customers could benefit from the proposed method to schedule generation and consumption units reliably.

2020

Day-ahead charging operation of electric vehicles with on-site renewable energy resources in a mixed integer linear programming framework

Authors
Sengor, I; Erenoglu, AK; Erdinc, O; Tascikaraoglu, A; Catalao, JPS;

Publication
IET SMART GRID

Abstract
The large-scale penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) into the power system will provoke new challenges needed to be handled by distribution system operators (DSOs). Demand response (DR) strategies play a key role in facilitating the integration of each new asset into the power system. With the aid of the smart grid paradigm, a day-ahead charging operation of large-scale penetration of EVs in different regions that include different aggregators and various EV parking lots (EVPLs) is propounded in this study. Moreover, the uncertainty of the related EV owners, such as the initial state-of-energy and the arrival time to the related EVPL, is taken into account. The stochasticity of PV generation is also investigated by using a scenario-based approach related to daily solar irradiation data. Last but not least, the operational flexibility is also taken into consideration by implementing peak load limitation (PLL) based DR strategies from the DSO point of view. To reveal the effectiveness of the devised scheduling model, it is performed under various case studies that have different levels of PLL, and for the cases with and without PV generation.

2020

Speeding up the detection of invasive aquatic species using environmental DNA and nanopore sequencing

Authors
Egeter, B; Veríssimo, J; Lopes-Lima, M; Chaves, C; Pinto, J; Riccardi, N; Beja, P; Fonseca, NA;

Publication

Abstract
AbstractTraditional detection of aquatic invasive species, via morphological identification is often time-consuming and can require a high level of taxonomic expertise, leading to delayed mitigation responses. Environmental DNA (eDNA) detection approaches of multiple species using Illumina-based sequencing technology have been used to overcome these hindrances, but sample processing is often lengthy. More recently, portable nanopore sequencing technology has become available, which has the potential to make molecular detection of invasive species more widely accessible and to substantially decrease sample turnaround times. However, nanopore-sequenced reads have a much higher error rate than those produced by Illumina platforms, which has so far hindered the adoption of this technology. We provide a detailed laboratory protocol and bioinformatic tools to increase the reliability of nanopore sequencing to detect invasive species, and we test its application using invasive bivalves. We sampled water from sites with pre-existing bivalve occurrence and abundance data, and contrasting bivalve communities, in Italy and Portugal. We extracted, amplified and sequenced eDNA with a turnaround of 3.5 days. The majority of processed reads were = 99 % identical to reference sequences. There were no taxa detected other than those known to occur. The lack of detections of some species at some sites could be explained by their known low abundances. This is the first reported use of MinION to detect aquatic invasive species from eDNA samples. The approach can be easily adapted for other metabarcoding applications, such as biodiversity assessment, ecosystem health assessment and diet studies.

2020

A Novel Ensemble Algorithm for Solar Power Forecasting Based on Kernel Density Estimation

Authors
Lotfi, M; Javadi, M; Osorio, GJ; Monteiro, C; Catalao, JPS;

Publication
ENERGIES

Abstract
A novel ensemble algorithm based on kernel density estimation (KDE) is proposed to forecast distributed generation (DG) from renewable energy sources (RES). The proposed method relies solely on publicly available historical input variables (e.g., meteorological forecasts) and the corresponding local output (e.g., recorded power generation). Given a new case (with forecasted meteorological variables), the resulting power generation is forecasted. This is performed by calculating a KDE-based similarity index to determine a set of most similar cases from the historical dataset. Then, the outputs of the most similar cases are used to calculate an ensemble prediction. The method is tested using historical weather forecasts and recorded generation of a PV installation in Portugal. Despite only being given averaged data as input, the algorithm is shown to be capable of predicting uncertainties associated with high frequency weather variations, outperforming deterministic predictions based on solar irradiance forecasts. Moreover, the algorithm is shown to outperform a neural network (NN) in most test cases while being exceptionally faster (32 times). Given that the proposed model only relies on public locally-metered data, it is a convenient tool for DG owners/operators to effectively forecast their expected generation without depending on private/proprietary data or divulging their own.

2020

A drift detection method based on dynamic classifier selection

Authors
Pinage, F; dos Santos, EM; Gama, J;

Publication
DATA MINING AND KNOWLEDGE DISCOVERY

Abstract
Machine learning algorithms can be applied to several practical problems, such as spam, fraud and intrusion detection, and customer preferences, among others. In most of these problems, data come in streams, which mean that data distribution may change over time, leading to concept drift. The literature is abundant on providing supervised methods based on error monitoring for explicit drift detection. However, these methods may become infeasible in some real-world applications-where there is no fully labeled data available, and may depend on a significant decrease in accuracy to be able to detect drifts. There are also methods based on blind approaches, where the decision model is updated constantly. However, this may lead to unnecessary system updates. In order to overcome these drawbacks, we propose in this paper a semi-supervised drift detector that uses an ensemble of classifiers based on self-training online learning and dynamic classifier selection. For each unknown sample, a dynamic selection strategy is used to choose among the ensemble's component members, the classifier most likely to be the correct one for classifying it. The prediction assigned by the chosen classifier is used to compute an estimate of the error produced by the ensemble members. The proposed method monitors such a pseudo-error in order to detect drifts and to update the decision model only after drift detection. The achievement of this method is relevant in that it allows drift detection and reaction and is applicable in several practical problems. The experiments conducted indicate that the proposed method attains high performance and detection rates, while reducing the amount of labeled data used to detect drift.

2020

Multivariate Analysis to Assist Decision-Making in Many-objective Engineering Optimization Problems

Authors
Santos, F; Costa, L;

Publication
COMPUTATIONAL SCIENCE AND ITS APPLICATIONS - ICCSA 2020, PT III

Abstract
Data processing (or the transformation of data into knowledge and/or information) has become an indispensable tool for decision-making in many areas of engineering. Engineering optimization problems with many objectives are common. However, the decision-making process for these problems is complicated since there are many trade-offs that are difficult to identify. Thus, in this work, multivariate statistical methods, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Cluster Analysis (CA), have been studied and applied to analyze the results of many objective engineering optimization problems. PCA reduces the number of objectives to a very small number, CA through the similarities and dissimilarities, creates groups of solutions, i.e., bringing together in the same group solutions with the same characteristics and behaviors. Two engineering optimization problems with many objectives are solved: a mechanical problem consisting in the optimal design of laminated plates, with four objectives and a problem of optimization of the radar waveform, with nine objectives. For the problem of the design of laminated plates through PCA allowed to reduce to two objectives and through CA it was possible to create three distinct groups of solutions. For the problem of optimization of the radar waveform, it was possible to reduce the objectives from nine to two objectives representing the greatest variability of the data, and CA defined three distinct groups of solutions. These results demonstrate that these tools are effective to assist the decision-making processes in the presence of a large number of solutions and/or objectives.

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