2006
Authors
Barbosa, S; Silva, ME; Fernandes, MJ;
Publication
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
Abstract
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is one of the most important climatic patterns in the Northern Hemisphere. Indices based on the normalised pressure difference between Iceland and a Southern station, such as Lisbon or Gibraltar, have been defined in order to describe NAO temporal evolution. Although exhibiting interannual and decadal variability, the signals are statistically rather featureless and therefore it is difficult to discriminate between different types of stochastic models. In this study, Lisbon and Gibraltar NAO winter indices are analysed using the discrete wavelet transform discrete wavelet transform(DWT). A multi-resolution analysis (MRA) is carried out for a scale-based description of the indices and the wavelet spectrum is used to identify and estimate long-range dependence. The degree of association of the two NAO indices is assessed by estimating the wavelet covariance for the two signals. The scale-based approach inherent to the discrete wavelet methodology allows a scale-by-scale comparison of the signals and shows that although the short-term temporal pattern is very similar for both indices, the long-term temporal structure is distinct. Furthermore, the degree of persistence or 'memory' is also distinct: the Lisbon index is best described by a long-range dependent (LRD) process, while the Gibraltar index is adequately described by a short-range process. Therefore, while trend features in the Lisbon NAO index may be explainable by long-range dependence alone, with no need to invoke external factors, for the Gibraltar index such features cannot be interpreted as resulting only from internal variability through long-range dependence. Copyright (C) 2006 Royal Meteorological Society.
2006
Authors
Barbosa, SM; Fernandes, MJ; Silva, ME;
Publication
PHYSICA A-STATISTICAL MECHANICS AND ITS APPLICATIONS
Abstract
Sea level is an important parameter in climate and oceanographic applications. In this work the scaling behavior of sea level is analyzed from time series of sea level observations. The wavelet domain is particularly attractive for the identification of scaling behavior in an observed time series. The wavelet spectrum from a scale-by-scale wavelet analysis of variance reproduces in the wavelet domain the power laws underlying a scaling process, allowing the estimation of the scaling exponent from the slope of the wavelet spectrum. Here the scaling exponent is estimated in the wavelet domain for time series of sea level observations in the North Atlantic: at coastal sites from tide gauges, covering 50 years of monthly measurements, and in the open ocean from satellite altimetry, covering 12 years of satellite measurements at 10 days intervals. Both tide gauge and altimetry time series exhibit scaling behavior. Furthermore, the degree of stochastic persistence is spatially coherent and distinct at the coast and in the open ocean. Near the coast, the stochastic structure of the sea level observations is characterized by long-range dependence with a moderate degree of persistence. Larger values of the scaling exponent, consistent with weaker persistence, are concentrated in the northern Atlantic. At mid-latitudes the stochastic dependence of sea level observations is characterized by strong persistence in the form of strong long-range and 1/f dependence.
2007
Authors
Barbosa, SM; Fernandes, MJ; Silva, ME;
Publication
DYNAMIC PLANET: MONITORING AND UNDERSTANDING A DYNAMIC PLANET WITH GEODETIC AND OCEANOGRAPHIC TOOLS
Abstract
A comparative study is carried out for sea level observations in the North Atlantic from tide gauges and satellite altimetry. Monthly tide gauge records from 12 stations in both sides of the North Atlantic from January 1993 to December 2003 and monthly time series of sea level anomalies derived from TOPEX measurements are considered. The degree of association between tide gauge and altimetry observations is analysed for different scales by computing the correlation between the sea level components resulting from a multiresolution analysis based on the maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform. A similar correlation analysis is carried out to assess the relationship between the sea level observations and climate variables: sea surface temperature, precipitation rate and wind speed. The results show that altimetry and tide gauge observations are strongly correlated, as expected, but also that the relation is scale dependent, with covariability driven by the seasonal signal for most stations. For all variables the obtained correlation patterns exhibit significant spatial variability reflecting the diversity of local conditions affecting coastal sea level.
2008
Authors
Barbosa, SM; Silva, ME; Fernandes, MJ;
Publication
TELLUS SERIES A-DYNAMIC METEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY
Abstract
Sea level is a key variable in the context of global climate change. Climate-induced variability is expected to affect not only the mean sea level but also the amplitude and phase of its seasonal cycle. This study addresses the changes in the amplitude and phase of the annual cycle of coastal sea level in the extra-tropical North Atlantic. The physical causes of these variations are explored by analysing the association between fluctuations in the annual amplitude of sea level and in ancillary parameters [atmospheric pressure, sea-surface temperature and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) winter index]. The annual cycle is extracted through autoregressive decomposition, in order to be able to separate variations in seasonality from long-term interannual variations in the mean. The changes detected in the annual sea level cycle are regionally coherent, and related to changes in the analysed forcing parameters. At the northern sites, fluctuations in the annual amplitude of sea level are associated with concurrent changes in temperature, while atmospheric pressure is the dominant influence for most of the sites on the western boundary. The state of the NAO influences the annual variability in the Southern Bight, possibly through NAO-related changes in wind stress and ocean circulation.
2009
Authors
Barbosa, SM; Silva, ME; Fernandes, MJ;
Publication
THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
Abstract
Atmospheric pressure varies within a wide range of scales and thus a multi-scale description of its variability is particularly appealing. In this study, a scale-by-scale analysis of the global sea-level pressure field is carried out from reanalysis data. Wavelet-based analysis of variance is applied in order to describe the variability of the pressure field in terms of patterns representing the contribution of each scale to the overall variance. Signals at the seasonal scales account for the largest fraction of sea-level pressure variance (typically more than 60%) except in the Southern Ocean, in the Equatorial Pacific and in the North Atlantic. In the Southern Ocean and over the North Atlantic, high-frequency signals contribute to a considerable fraction (30-50%) of the overall variance in sea-level pressure. In the Equatorial Pacific, large-scale variability, associated with ENSO, contributes up to 40% of the total variance.
2009
Authors
Barbosa, SM; Silva, ME;
Publication
ESTUARINE COASTAL AND SHELF SCIENCE
Abstract
Long-term sea-level variability in Chesapeake Bay is examined from long tide gauge records in order to assess the influence of climate factors on sea-level changes in this complex estuarine system. A time series decomposition method based on autoregression is applied to extract flexible seasonal and low-frequency components from the tide gauge records, allowing to analyse long-term sea-level variability not only by estimating linear trends from the records, but also by examining fluctuations in seasonal and long-term patterns. Long-term sea-level variability in Chesapeake Bay shows considerable decadal variability. At the annual scale, variability is mainly determined by atmospheric factors, specifically atmospheric pressure and zonal wind, but no systematic trends are found in the amplitude of the annual cycle. On longer time scales, precipitation rate, a proxy for river discharge, is the main factor influencing decadal sea-level variability. Linear trends in relative sea-level heights range from 2.66 +/- 0.075 mm/year (at Baltimore) to 4.40 +/- 0.086 mm/year (at Hampton Roads) for the 1955-2007 period. Due to the gentle slope of most of the bay margin, a sea-level increase of this magnitude poses a significant threat in terms of wetland loss and consequent environmental impacts.
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