Abstract

Abstract
Extreme and rare events, such as spikes in air pollution or abnormal weather conditions, can have serious repercussions. Many of these sorts of events develop through spatio-temporal processes. Timely and accurate predictions are a most valuable tool in addressing their impact. We propose a new set of resampling strategies for imbalanced spatio-temporal forecasting tasks, which introduce bias into formerly random processes. This bias is a combination of a spatial and a temporal weight, which can be either static or relevance-aware, and includes a hyper-parameter that regulates the relative importance of the temporal and spatial dimensions in the selection of observations during under- or over-sampling. We test and compare our proposals against standard versions of the strategies on 10 different geo-referenced numeric time series, using 3 distinct off-the-shelf learning algorithms. Experimental results show that our proposals provide an advantage over random resampling strategies in imbalanced numerical spatio-temporal forecasting tasks.

Abstract

Abstract
The negative impact of false information on social networks is rapidly growing. Current research on the topic focused on the detection of fake news in a particular context or event (such as elections) or using data from a short period of time. Therefore, an evaluation of the current proposals in a long-term scenario where the topics discussed may change is lacking. In this work, we deviate from current approaches to the problem and instead focus on a longitudinal evaluation using social network publications spanning an 18-month period. We evaluate different combinations of features and supervised models in a long-term scenario where the training and testing data are ordered chronologically, and thus the robustness and stability of the models can be evaluated through time. We experimented with 3 different scenarios where the models are trained with 15-, 30-, and 60-day data periods. The results show that detection models trained with word-embedding features are the ones that perform better and are less likely to be affected by the change of topics (for example, the rise of COVID-19 conspiracy theories). Furthermore, the additional days of training data also increase the performance of the best feature/model combinations, although not very significantly (around 2%). The results presented in this paper build the foundations towards a more pragmatic approach to the evaluation of fake news detection models in social networks.

Abstract

Abstract
Antarctic deserts, such as the McMurdo Dry Valleys (MDV), represent extremely cold and dry environments. Consequently, MDV are suitable for studying the environment limits on the cycling of key elements that are necessary for life, like nitrogen. The spatial distribution and biogeochemical drivers of nitrogen-cycling pathways remain elusive in the Antarctic deserts because most studies focus on specific nitrogen-cycling genes and/or organisms. In this study, we analyzed metagenome and relevant environmental data of 32 MDV soils to generate a complete picture of the nitrogen-cycling potential in MDV microbial communities and advance our knowledge of the complexity and distribution of nitrogen biogeochemistry in these harsh environments. We found evidence of nitrogen-cycling genes potentially capable of fully oxidizing and reducing molecular nitrogen, despite the inhospitable conditions of MDV. Strong positive correlations were identified between genes involved in nitrogen cycling. Clear relationships between nitrogen-cycling pathways and environmental parameters also indicate abiotic and biotic variables, like pH, water availability, and biological complexity that collectively impose limits on the distribution of nitrogen-cycling genes. Accordingly, the spatial distribution of nitrogen-cycling genes was more concentrated near the lakes and glaciers. Association rules revealed non-linear correlations between complex combinations of environmental variables and nitrogen-cycling genes. Association rules for the presence of denitrification genes presented a distinct combination of environmental variables from the remaining nitrogen-cycling genes. This study contributes to an integrative picture of the nitrogen-cycling potential in MDV.