Cookies Policy
The website need some cookies and similar means to function. If you permit us, we will use those means to collect data on your visits for aggregated statistics to improve our service. Find out More
Accept Reject
  • Menu
Publications

Publications by Alberto Pinto

2025

Striking a balance: navigating the trade-offs between predictive accuracy and interpretability in machine learning models

Authors
Arantes, M; González Manteiga, W; Torres, J; Pinto, A;

Publication
ELECTRONIC RESEARCH ARCHIVE

Abstract
Sales forecasting is very important in retail management. It helps with decisions about inventory, staffing, and planning promotions. In this study, we looked at how to balance the accuracy of predictions with how easy it is to understand the machine learning models used in sales forecasting. We used public data from Rossmann stores to study various factors like promotions, holidays, and store features that affect daily sales. We compared a complex, highly accurate model (XGBoost) with simpler, easier-to-understand linear regression models. To find a middle ground, we created a hybrid model called LR XGBoost. This model changes a linear regression model to match the predictions of XGBoost. The hybrid model keeps the strong predictive power of complex models but makes the results easier to understand, which is important for making decisions in retail. Our study shows that our hybrid model offers a good balance, providing reliable sales forecasts with more transparency than standard linear regression. This makes it a valuable tool for retail managers who need accurate forecasts and a clear understanding of what influences sales. The model’s consistent performance across datasets also suggests it can be used in various retail settings to improve efficiency and help with strategic decisions. © 2025 the Author(s), licensee AIMS Press. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0)

2025

A Statistical Duality for Random Matching of Agents

Authors
Yannacopoulos, A; Oliveira, B; Ferreira, M; Martins, J; Pinto, A;

Publication
MATHEMATICAL METHODS IN THE APPLIED SCIENCES

Abstract
We propose a statistical duality among the preferences and endowments of the agents. Under this duality, the logarithmic prices of random trades among agents in a decentralized economy converge in expectation to the logarithm of the Walrasian equilibrium price in a centralized economy.

2023

Preface

Authors
Accinelli, E; Hernández-Lerma, O; Hervés-Beloso, C; Neme, A; Oliveira, BMPM; Pinto, AA; Yannacopoulos, AN;

Publication
Journal of Dynamics and Games

Abstract

2025

The Application of Machine Learning and Deep Learning with a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for Pedestrian Modeling: A Systematic Literature Review (1999-2023)

Authors
Reyes-Norambuena, P; Pinto, AA; Martínez, J; Yazdi, AK; Tan, Y;

Publication
SUSTAINABILITY

Abstract
Among transportation researchers, pedestrian issues are highly significant, and various solutions have been proposed to address these challenges. These approaches include Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) and machine learning (ML) techniques, often categorized into two primary types. While previous studies have addressed diverse methods and transportation issues, this research integrates pedestrian modeling with MCDA and ML approaches. This paper examines how MCDA and ML can be combined to enhance decision-making in pedestrian dynamics. Drawing on a review of 1574 papers published from 1999 to 2023, this study identifies prevalent themes and methodologies in MCDA, ML, and pedestrian modeling. The MCDA methods are categorized into weighting and ranking techniques, with an emphasis on their application to complex transportation challenges involving both qualitative and quantitative criteria. The findings suggest that hybrid MCDA algorithms can effectively evaluate ML performance, addressing the limitations of traditional methods. By synthesizing the insights from the existing literature, this review outlines key methodologies and provides a roadmap for future research in integrating MCDA and ML in pedestrian dynamics. This research aims to deepen the understanding of how informed decision-making can enhance urban environments and improve pedestrian safety.

2024

Bounded Rational Players in a Symmetric Random Exchange Market

Authors
Yusuf, A; Oliveira, B; Pinto, A; Yannacopoulos, AN;

Publication
MATHEMATICS

Abstract
A model of Edgeworthian economies is studied, in which participants are randomly chosen at each period to exchange two goods to increase their utilities, as described by the Cobb-Douglas utility function. Participants can trade deviating from their bilateral equilibrium, provided that the market and the trade follow appropriate symmetry conditions. The article aims to study the convergence to equilibrium in a situation where individuals or small groups of participants trade in a market, and prices are determined by interactions between the participants rather than by demand and supply alone. A dynamic matching and bargaining game is considered, with statistical duality imposed on the market game, ensuring that each participant has a counterpart with opposite preferences. This guaranties that there is sufficient incentive for trade. It is shown that, in each period, the expected logarithm of the trading price in the Edgeworthian economy equals the expected Walrasian price. This demonstrates that, under symmetry conditions, the trading price in the Edgeworthian economy is related to the Walrasian price, indicating convergence of the trading price in the Edgeworthian economy towards the Walrasian price. The study suggests that, under the right conditions, the decentralized trading model leads to price convergence similar to what would be expected in a more classical Walrasian economy, where prices balance demand and supply.

2024

Game Theory for Predicting Stocks' Closing Prices

Authors
Freitas, JC; Pinto, AA; Felgueiras, O;

Publication
MATHEMATICS

Abstract
We model the financial markets as a game and make predictions using Markov chain estimators. We extract the possible patterns displayed by the financial markets, define a game where one of the players is the speculator, whose strategies depend on his/her risk-to-reward preferences, and the market is the other player, whose strategies are the previously observed patterns. Then, we estimate the market's mixed probabilities by defining Markov chains and utilizing its transition matrices. Afterwards, we use these probabilities to determine which is the optimal strategy for the speculator. Finally, we apply these models to real-time market data to determine its feasibility. From this, we obtained a model for the financial markets that has a good performance in terms of accuracy and profitability.

  • 11
  • 28