Abstract
Cost sensitive prediction is a key task in many real world applications. Most existing research in this area deals with classification problems. This paper addresses a related regression problem: the prediction of rare extreme values of a continuous variable. These values are often regarded as outliers and removed from posterior analysis. However, for many applications (e.g. in finance, meteorology, biology, etc.) these are the key values that we want to accurately predict. Any learning method obtains models by optimizing some preference criteria. In this paper we propose new evaluation criteria that are more adequate for these applications. We describe a generalization for regression of the concepts of precision and recall often used in classification. Using these new evaluation metrics we are able to focus the evaluation of predictive models on the cases that really matter for these applications. Our experiments indicate the advantages of the use of these new measures when comparing predictive models in the context of our target applications.

Abstract
Modelling extreme data is very important in several application domains, like for instance finance, meteorology, ecology, etc.. This paper addresses the problem of predicting extreme values of a continuous variable. The main distinguishing feature of our target applications resides on the fact that these values are rare. Any prediction model is obtained by some sort of search process guided by a pre-specified evaluation criterion. In this work we argue against the use of standard criteria for evaluating regression models in the context of our target applications. We propose. a new predictive performance metric for this class of problems that our experiments show to perform better in distinguishing models that are more accurate at rare extreme values. This new evaluation metric could be used as the basis for developing better models in terms of rare extreme values prediction.

Abstract
The current quality control methodology adopted by the water distribution service provider in the metropolitan region of Porto - Portugal, is based on simple heuristics and empirical knowledge. Based on the domain complexity and data volume, this application is a perfect candidate to apply data mining process. In this paper, we propose a new methodology to predict the range of normality for the values of different water quality parameters. These intervals of normality are of key importance to decide on costly inspection activities. Our experimental evaluation confirms that our proposal achieves good results on the task of forecasting the normal distribution of values for the following 30 days. The proposed method can be applied to other domains with similar network monitoring objectives.

Abstract

Abstract
The early detection of fire is of utmost importance since it is related to devastating threats regarding human lives and economic losses. Unfortunately, fire alarm sensory systems are known to be prone to failures and frequent false alarms, putting people and buildings at risk. In this sense, it is essential to guarantee smoke detectors' correct functioning. Traditionally, these systems have been subject to periodic maintenance plans, which do not consider the state of the fire alarm sensors and are, therefore, sometimes carried out not when necessary but according to a predefined conservative schedule. Intending to contribute to designing a predictive maintenance plan, we propose an online data-driven anomaly detection of smoke sensors that model the behaviour of these systems over time and detect abnormal patterns that can indicate a potential failure. Our approach was applied to data collected from independent fire alarm sensory systems installed with four customers, from which about three years of data are available. For one of the customers, the obtained results were promising, with a precision score of 1 with no false positives for 3 out of 4 possible faults. Analysis of the remaining customers' results highlighted possible reasons and potential improvements to address this problem better. These findings can provide valuable insights for future research in this area.

Abstract