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Publications

Publications by CPES

2026

A federated Artificial Intelligence testing and experimentation facility for the European energy sector

Authors
Sarmas, E; Lucas, A; Acosta, A; Ponci, F; Rodriguez, P; Marinakis, V;

Publication
ENGINEERING APPLICATIONS OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

Abstract
The application of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the energy sector offers new opportunities for developing flexible, efficient, and sustainable infrastructures. Nevertheless, real-world deployment is still constrained by the lack of large-scale, integrated environments that can evaluate advanced algorithms under realistic operating conditions while ensuring regulatory compliance. This paper presents EnerTEF (which stands for Energy Testing and Experimentation Facility), a federated platform for testing and experimentation in the energy sector designed to address this gap. We introduce a unified TEF architecture that enables full-stack evaluation of intelligent systems, including predictive modeling, optimization, learning under data distribution shifts and federated learning across geographically distributed sites. The framework integrates high-fidelity digital twins, a privacy-preserving data exchange framework and regulatory sandboxing to support transparent, explainable and robust AI development. EnerTEF demonstrates how such a framework can be deployed in critical energy domains through three real-world scenarios including short-term hydropower generation forecasting, coordination between distribution network operators and distributed energy resources and real-time optimization of self-consumption for municipal buildings. Results show that EnerTEF effectively enables the development of novel AI models, improves cross-context generalizability and supports innovation for complex energy infrastructures, ultimately creating a practical, scalable path for addressing different energy-related problems and heterogeneous data.

2025

Probabilistic Estimation of the Quality-of-Service Indexes in Distribution Networks

Authors
Branco, JPTS; Macedo, P; Fidalgo, JN;

Publication
2025 21ST INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON THE EUROPEAN ENERGY MARKET, EEM

Abstract
Ensuring reliable and high-quality electricity service is critical for consumers and Distribution System Operators (DSO). The DSO's Plan for Development and Investment in the Distribution Network (PDIDN) plays a pivotal role in enhancing network reliability and resilience while balancing technical and financial aspects. This study proposes a novel probabilistic approach for quality-of-service (QoS) estimation in distribution systems, addressing the limitations of traditional deterministic methods. Leveraging Bayesian regression, specifically the Spike and Slab technique, the model incorporates prior knowledge to improve the prediction of key QoS indicators such as SAIDI, SAIFI, and TIEPI. Using historical network data, the model demonstrates superior predictive accuracy and robustness, offering realistic confidence intervals for strategic planning. This method enables informed investments, enhances regulatory compliance, and supports renewable integration. The findings underline the potential of probabilistic modeling in advancing QoS forecasting, encouraging its application in other areas of electric network management.

2025

Analysis and Optimization of Battery Energy Storage Systems in Energy Markets

Authors
Baptista, G; Fidalgo, JN;

Publication
2025 21ST INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON THE EUROPEAN ENERGY MARKET, EEM

Abstract
This article explores the optimization of Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) in energy markets, emphasizing their role in decarbonization by storing excess renewable energy and mitigating grid constraints. BESS enables energy transition by facilitating energy arbitrage, frequency regulation, and grid stabilization, essential for integrating variable renewable sources. Focusing on the UK energy market, the study highlights the favorable policies and investments driving BESS deployment. It examines revenue streams, including Day-Ahead and Intraday markets, ancillary services, and balancing mechanisms, particularly dynamic services like frequency regulation. Challenges such as gas market volatility and regulatory hurdles are also discussed. The proposed market optimization model simulates BESS operations, revealing consistent revenue potential influenced by market conditions and regulatory frameworks. The study underscores BESSs critical role in stabilizing grids, supporting renewables, and enhancing energy security while calling for further research on equipment degradation and broader impacts on energy systems and pricing.

2025

The Impact of Daylight Saving Time on Energy Consumption: A Comprehensive Analysis Across European Countries

Authors
Fidalgo, JNM; Ferreira, J; Leitão, S;

Publication

Abstract

2025

Sampling-Interval Bias in Distribution Loss Estimation: Theory and Validation on Real Networks

Authors
Fidalgo, JN; Paulos, JP; Soares, I;

Publication

Abstract

2025

Fuzzy Logic Estimation of Coincidence Factors for EV Fleet Charging Infrastructure Planning in Residential Buildings

Authors
Carvalhosa, S; Ferreira, JR; Araújo, RE;

Publication
ENERGIES

Abstract
As electric vehicle (EV) adoption accelerates, residential buildings-particularly multi-dwelling structures-face increasing challenges to electrical infrastructure, notably due to conservative sizing practices of electrical feeders based on maximum simultaneous demand. Current sizing methods assume all EVs charge simultaneously at maximum capacity, resulting in unnecessarily oversized and costly electrical installations. This study proposes an optimized methodology to estimate accurate coincidence factors, leveraging simulations of EV user charging behaviors in multi-dwelling residential environments. Charging scenarios considering different fleet sizes (1 to 70 EVs) were simulated under two distinct premises of charging: minimization of current allocation to achieve the desired battery state-of-charge and maximization of instantaneous power delivery. Results demonstrate significant deviations from conventional assumptions, with estimated coincidence factors decreasing non-linearly as fleet size increases. Specifically, applying the derived coincidence factors can reduce feeder section requirements by up to 86%, substantially lowering material costs. A fuzzy logic inference model is further developed to refine these estimates based on fleet characteristics and optimization preferences, providing a practical tool for infrastructure planners. The results were compared against other studies and real-life data. Finally, the proposed methodology thus contributes to more efficient, cost-effective design strategies for EV charging infrastructures in residential buildings.

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