2018
Authors
Castanon, R; Campos Fernandez, FAC; Domenech Martinez, SD; Collado, JV;
Publication
2018 15TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON THE EUROPEAN ENERGY MARKET (EEM)
Abstract
Environmental policies could accelerate the replacement of Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles (ICEV) by Plug-in-Electric Vehicles (PEV) in many countries. However, in countries where these policies are still not implemented (for example those with no significant PEV subsidies like Spain), technical and economic criteria can also be relevant to assess the future PEV penetration. This work develops a new long-term expansion model that computes the share of PEV and ICEV based on economic criteria, including the impact of PEV on the electricity price and generation mix. The model minimizes the power and transport system costs (investment, operation and maintenance costs, etc.) considering electricity and private transportation needs. Results provide insight on the combined evolution of the renewable generation and of the PEV and ICEV future fleets in Spain, considering environmental constraints such as those imposed by the European Commission.
2018
Authors
Domenech, S; Campos, FA; Villar, J;
Publication
2018 15TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON THE EUROPEAN ENERGY MARKET (EEM)
Abstract
Capacity generation expansion problems have traditionally been represented with low time resolution models due to their high computational cost, very often using blocks of hours with similar demand. However, the current transformation of the power system with the new generation and consumption technologies, the flexibility and reserve requirements, and the expected new behavioral consumption patterns, requires more complex and detailed models with higher time resolution to provide accurate investment decisions and allow for closer analyses. In particular, these challenges require chronological hourly models with constraints linking all the years of the planning horizon, compromising in most cases the computational feasibility. This paper presents a new approach to synthetize a reduced representative time period for capacity expansion problems, for being used in detailed chronological hourly models, while keeping them computationally feasible. The representative period is synthetized by selecting, with a genetic algorithm, those real days that minimizes the distance between the duration curves of a set of relevant variables (such as demand, renewable generation, ramps, etc.) computed for the original and for the representative periods. Results show that investments decisions with the representative period are very similar to those obtained with the full planning horizon, while computational times are strongly reduced.
2018
Authors
Domenech Martinez, SD; Campos Fernandez, FAC; Abbad, MR; Collado, JV;
Publication
2018 15TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON THE EUROPEAN ENERGY MARKET (EEM)
Abstract
Power systems of most EU countries will face substantial changes driven mainly by the EU Clean Energy Package and the expected increasing role of customers making use of demand response and distributed self-generation and self-storage resources (self-DG&S). This work aims to analyze the impact of these two factors on the long term evolution of both utility scale centralized generation and storage (CG&S), and self-DG&S. An hourly resolution generation expansion model based on cost minimization for CG&S and expenses' minimization for self-DG&S is used. Four case studies covering the period 2018-2047 for a real sized system (the Spanish one) are presented. Results highlight a strong synergy between battery costs and solar photovoltaic investments, while wind power seems to be better complemented by peaker thermal units.
2019
Authors
Martinez, F; Campos, A; Domenech, S; Villar, J;
Publication
2019 16TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON THE EUROPEAN ENERGY MARKET (EEM)
Abstract
Among conventional generation technologies in Spain, Combined Cycle Gas Turbines (CCGT) is the one that has experienced the largest development over the first decade of the 21st century. However, despite its promising future, multiple factors (such as the renewable generation increase, demand decline, adverse regulatory policies, etc.) have compromised their competitive position, reducing their capacity factor and undermining their financial viability. Because of those issues, electricity companies are giving up on new CCGTs investments, or even considering closing or mothballing some of their recently built plants. However, many still claim for the necessity of maintaining flexible backup technologies to cope with the variability of renewable energies, as a transition technology until energy storage or other future technologies emerge. This paper makes a profitability analysis of CCGTs in the Spanish electric power sector under different scenarios of RES penetration, carbon plants decommissioning, CO2 emission costs and EV penetration.
2019
Authors
Martinez, SD; Collado, JV;
Publication
2019 16TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON THE EUROPEAN ENERGY MARKET (EEM)
Abstract
Many Generation Expansion Problems (GEP) models have been proposed in the literature based on agent-based equilibria or cost-minimization, integrated in bilevel or single-level models. In the simplest (and unrealistic) single-level cost minimization GEP with only the balance constraint, it can be proved that optimal generation investments are recovered through the system marginal cost, meaning that the Net Present Value (NPV) is 0. However, in more complex representations with additional constraints (such as technical or minimum capacity system constraints) non-profitable investments might occur, i.e., their NPV can go below 0. The aim of this work is to provide insights on how introducing complexity into GEP models affects the investments with and without imposing positive NPV as new constraints. The non-linearities in the NPV formulation are solved with a novel iterative algorithm. The main conclusion from the case studies is that the cost minimization GEP model forcing positive NPV can help to better represent the behavior of energy market players and simulate oligopolistic energy markets without explicitly representing profit maximization.
2020
Authors
Martinez, SD; Campos, FA; Villar, J; Rivier, M;
Publication
ELECTRIC POWER SYSTEMS RESEARCH
Abstract
Power systems will face important structural changes in the near future due to the empowerment of consumers, who may resort on self-consumption, and reduce their purchases of electricity from the grid. The avoided costs of purchasing energy, as compared to the investment costs of installing their own self-generation capacity, could be one of the drivers of the consumers' decision making. The system expansion will therefore result from the interaction of the traditional market agents, maximizing their profits by investing in and operating centralized generation assets, and the new active consumers, minimizing their expenses while meeting their energy needs. This paper presents a Nash equilibrium model that considers centralized and behind-the-meter distributed generation expansion, by representing the operation and investments decisions of both types of agents with their own conceptually different strategies. To simplify the resolution, the equilibrium model is transformed into an equivalent minimization problem from its Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions. The model application to Spain-like system case example allows to assess the impact of the network access-tariff (whether being mainly volumetric-based or power-based) and the impact of the big industrial market power on the generation expansion, for the time horizon 2019-2037.
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