Abstract
Background: E-commerce has emerged as a good response to the pandemic of COVID-19. However, the costs of providing a service, which includes a driver and a vehicle, in a regular vehicle that can transport goods that need positive cold (0 & DEG; to 5 & DEG;C) are very high. Objectives: This paper aims to investigate how a big Portuguese retailer company can reduce its dependence on refrigerated vehicles, simplifying operations and reducing the costs of transporting positive and negative cold food. Methods/Approach: This research was carried out in a food retailer Portuguese company, more precisely in a Dark Store dedicated to the online channel. The study was developed based on the AS-IS/TO-BE process analysis methodology, starting with the analysis of the current situation, giving rise to the so-called AS-IS model. Results: It was possible to reduce costs associated with transporting positive cold goods. As a result, there are 30% fewer costs associated with order transportation. With an additional 10% in space optimization with the gain of space within the galley of each vehicle. Conclusions: The costs of transporting positive and negative cold foods were decreased, and substituting vehicles with room temperature transport reduced the need for refrigerated vehicles.

Abstract
Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases. (C) 2021 The Author( s). Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of International Institute of Forecasters.

Abstract
The magnitude of the subprime crisis effects caused recessions in several economies, giving rise to the global financial crisis. The scale of this major shock and the different recovery profiles of European economies motivated this paper. The main objective is to look for evidence of contagion between the North American financial market (S&P500) and the financial markets of Portugal (PSI20), Spain (IBEX35), Greece (ATHEX) and Italy (FTSEMIB), in the South of Europe, and the financial markets of Sweden (OMXS30), Denmark (OMX2C0), Finland (OMXH25) and Norway (OsloOBX), in the North of Europe. Considering the period from January 1, 2003 to December 31, 2013, the ARMA-GARCH models were estimated to remove the autoregressive and conditional heteroscedastic effects from the time series of the daily returns. Then, the copula models were used to estimate the dependence relationships between the European stock indexes and the North American stock index, from the pre -crisis subperiod to the crisis subperiod. The results indicate financial contagion of the subprime crisis for all analyzed European countries. The North European markets intensified the relations of financial integration (both in negative and positive shocks) with the North American market, apart from the Danish against the Portuguese. In addition to the contribution made by the joint application of the ARMA-GARCH models, the findings are useful to identify channels of financial contagion between markets and to warn about the effects of possible new crisis, which will require different levels of adaptation by the companies' financial managers and intervention by the authorities.

Abstract
Socioeconomic changes have caused profound transformations in forest landscapes and increased abandonment of rural areas, leading to fuel accumulation and higher landscape homogeneity, and consequently, raising the rural fires risk. Rural fires risk is also fueled by climate change, due to heat waves and lack of precipitation. In this context, rural communities inhabiting forest areas are those who suffer the most, because rural fires, land degradation and climate change can disturb their food and economic strategy. These communities already suffer from underdeveloped rural infrastructure, and services, lack of labor and education opportunities, that trigger poverty and migration. Given this accelerating pace of change and increasing uncertainty, many fields of knowledge have been dedicated to contributing towards a more sustainable and inclusive future. In service research, transformative service research (TSR) literature plays a central role on understanding problems and finding solutions that improve well-being and create uplifting change through services. Similarly, the fire research field highlights the need for an integrated perspective to analyze all the aspects involved in rural fires occurrence, whether they are of an environmental or economic nature, or a sociological or demographic nature. This study aims to explore new services to cocreate value with forest-related rural communities, thus helping to manage forest areas and mitigate rural fires risks. A qualitative methodology was employed involving 28 participants related to fire management and forest areas and communities, including actors from industries, public entities, academics, the third sector. The data collected through individual interviews were transcribed, coded, and analyzed following a thematic analysis approach, with NVivo software support. Overall, the study emphasizes the need for an endogenous and adapted set of services to cocreate value with vulnerable communities in forest areas, which consequently enable rural fires mitigation. Given the high level of land abandonment and accumulation of residual materials that increases the risk of rural fires, the development of valuing and recovery solutions is a priority. Finally, this research can also help decision-makers and stakeholders to generate and support services that cocreate value with rural communities to a sustainable, safe and inclusive future.

Abstract
Fire is a traditional method used for the elimination of residual materials from agricultural and forestry activities, but its improper and negligent use increases the risk to cause significant social, economic, and environmental impacts. Translating the nature and magnitude of the risk, a mental model approach has been used for a deeper understanding of what can be done to reduce future socioeconomic and environmental impacts. Considering the rural fire risk context, in this study we applied the mental model approach to (1) explore the different perspectives of experts on rural fire risks, focusing on the burning problem, and (2) systematize the aggregated knowledge of experts on the subject. Semi-structured interviews that included real-time interactions with the proposed mental model on the MURAL platform were remotely conducted with twenty-eight experts with in-depth involvement and experience in fire and forest management in Portugal, including actors from industry, academics, third sector, and public entities. The experts' contributions were periodically validated by the research team and included in the reference mental model to translate the aggregated knowledge of the expert community. The data collected was transcribed, coded, and analyzed following a thematic analysis approach with NVivo software support. After nine iterations, the expert's mental model was concluded encompassing the burning motivators, alternative solutions, associated risks before and during the burning, underlying causes, natural elements and factors, and impacts. Overall, the study provides an in-depth and holistic understanding of rural fire risks, focusing on burning, which is essential for identifying incorrect beliefs and existing risk factors that are often neglected. The participatory and dynamic process of actors' knowledge systematization on burning risks through a mental model allowed the identification of divergent perspectives between expert groups, especially concerning the effectiveness of the current legislation on the use of fire, indicating the need to improve the dialogue between experts. Moreover, the study shows how risk communication campaigns do not replace technical monitoring closer to the population and recognize the importance and need of sensitization and communication actions to disseminate the use of available alternatives to overcome traditional habits of rural communities. Still, it indicates that successful alternative solutions of burning may be achieved with strong local and sectoral involvement. Finally, this research provides a baseline to help decision-makers and stakeholders identify the most relevant variables about rural fire risks to build effective risk communications strategies and mitigate social and environmental impacts in the future.

Abstract
Climate change increases the average temperature and reduces precipitation, leading to an increased risk of rural fires around the world, but mainly in regions with a Mediterranean climate, such as Portugal. Despite the high risk of rural fires, fire is still a traditional land management practice. Beyond fire misused risk, the accumulation of fuel loads, due to the high population dispersion and lower interaction of communities with the land, also drives rural fires risks. Thus, researchers have sought to understand the key features of communication practices to achieve the most desired natural risk management results in relation to rural fires. According to the Committee on Risk Perception and Communication, in 1989, risk communication is defined as “an interactive process of exchanging information and opinions between individuals, groups, and institutions�. However, there is a need for dialogue between the responsible for communication and relevant stakeholders. The Carnegie Mellon mental-models approach encompasses participatory processes to translate the nature and magnitude of the risk, allowing for a deeper understanding of what can be done to mitigate social and environmental impacts in the future. Considering rural fires risks and risk communication challenges, this study aims to design an effective risk communication plan oriented to the rural population, in the context of rural fires. For this objective to be achieved, the mental models approach was developed, exploring the underlying reasons for resistance to behavioral change and defining guidelines to support the design of new risk communication strategies, including the dissemination of new behaviors and practices that mitigate the ignition of rural fires. This systemic approach has been applied and tested in the rePLANT project, whose purpose is the development of research activities, innovation and transfer of knowledge and technology, to increase sustainable forest management, the competitiveness of the Portuguese forestry sector and reduce the impact of rural fires. Preliminary findings show what must be communicated about rural fires risk, how must be communicated, target audiences' profiles, the role of actors for effective risk communication on rural fires, attributes of good risk communication on rural fires, evaluation of the risk communication results. Finally, it is expected that this research provides guidelines to help decision-makers and stakeholders to design an effective risk communication plan oriented to prevent traditional burning practices, as well as to mitigate socioeconomic and environmental impacts in the future. This approach also highlights the importance of exploring the underlying reasons for resistance to behavioral change and defining guidelines to support the design of new risk communication strategies.