2015
Authors
Hora, J; Campos, P;
Publication
EXPERT SYSTEMS
Abstract
This study reviews performance criteria adequate to validate simulation models through the comparison of two quantitative data sets, concerning historical and simulated data. The criteria reviewed were organized according to its characteristics into the groups: error-based measures, information theory measures, information criteria, parametric tests, non-parametric tests, distance-based measures and combined measures. Each criterion is reviewed through its mathematic definition, its applications in literature and the identification of its advantages and drawbacks. The features assessed by each criterion are identified and discussed. This study provides a concise outline over the criteria reviewed, which can be used as a guide to help developers of simulation models into the decision on the most appropriate criteria to validate their models.
2015
Authors
Martins, J; Camanho, A; Oliveira, M; Gaspar, M;
Publication
INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS IN OPERATIONAL RESEARCH
Abstract
This paper presents a management model developed to promote the sustainability of artisanal fisheries, considering socioeconomic and environmental dimensions. The management of artisanal fisheries faces many challenges, including the lack of appropriate tools to support policy makers and stakeholders in the decision-making process. The model presented in this study is based on system dynamics and allows the simulation of the behavior of the artisanal dredge fishery on the south coast of Portugal, including four main species and two fleets. Two scenarios were simulated to assess the impact of regulatory measures on the system sustainability: scenario 1 simulated a permanent reduction of fishing effort, returning an improvement of biologic and economic sustainability; scenario 2 simulated the closure of one species for a period of one year to allow its recovery. It was found that although the revenue of fisheries decreases in that year, the system is able to return to the average levels of revenue three years after the closure. The study aimed to guide decision makers in the selection of the most appropriate measures toward the preservation of marine ecosystems and socioeconomic stability of fishing communities. The developed system dynamics model, combining available data with knowledge of fisheries experts, proved to be a useful scientific tool to identify management policies and organizational structures leading to greater success. This technique can be applied to the study of other fishery systems worldwide.
2015
Authors
Hora, J; Dias, TG; Camanho, A;
Publication
Studies in Big Data
Abstract
This study pursues the operational improvement of urban transportation services. Non-foreseen events lead to the occurrence of delays, which are further propagated during the daily operations of bus services. This paper applies an optimization model to obtain robust schedules of bus lines. The model builds a new schedule which minimizes delays and anticipations from a set of observations. The decision variables are the slack time to be allocated at each segment of two subsequent stops. The solutions obtained are assessed with two robustness measures: price of robustness (i.e. the deviations from schedule) and the percentage of absorbed delays. The results obtained in a real-world case study (a bus line operating in Porto) are promising. © 2015, Springer International Publishing Switzerland.
2015
Authors
Sousa, C; Silva, E; Lopes, M; Ramos, A;
Publication
Operations Research and Big Data: IO2015-XVII Congress of Portuguese Association of Operational Research (APDIO)
Abstract
This paper addresses the problem of determining the cutting patterns of metal sheets, which arises in a manufacturer of metal cages, in order to minimize the waste, the number of cuts performed, the number of metal sheets used or a weighted combination of the three. A two stage approach, to solve a 2D guillotine cutting stock problem with single and multiple stock sizes, is presented and compared with the company approach and state-of-the-art algorithms. The results show great improvement compared to the company approach and a very good performance compared to state-of-the-art algorithms.
2015
Authors
Pires, M; Amorim, P; Liz, J; Pratas, J;
Publication
Operations Research and Big Data: IO2015-XVII Congress of Portuguese Association of Operational Research (APDIO)
Abstract
The design of retail backroom storage has a great impact on in-store operations, customer service levels and store life-cycle costs. Moreover, backroom storage in modern retail stores is crucial to several functions, such as acting as a buffer against strong demand lifts yielded by an increasing promotional activity, seasonal peak demand and e-commerce activities. Despite having similar functions to a distribution center, backroom storage facilities have particularities that deserve a distinct analysis. In this paper we aim to draw attention to the lack of research about this topic.
2015
Authors
Real, AC; Borges, J; Sarsfield Cabral, JS; Jones, GV;
Publication
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY
Abstract
Temperature and water status profiles during the growing season are the most important factors influencing the ripening of wine grapes. To model weather influences on the quality and productivity of the vintages, it is necessary to partition the growing season into smaller growth intervals in which weather variables are evaluated. A significant part of past and ongoing research on the relationships between weather and wine quality uses calendar-defined intervals to partition the growing season. The phenology of grapevines is not determined by calendar dates but by several factors such as accumulated heat. To examine the accuracy of different approaches, this work analyzed the difference in average temperature and accumulated precipitation using growth intervals with boundaries defined by means of estimated historical phenological dates and intervals defined by means of accumulated heat or average calendar dates of the Douro Valley of Portugal. The results show that in situations where there is an absence of historical phenological dates and/or no available data that makes the estimation of those dates possible, it is more accurate to use grapevine heat requirements than calendar dates to define growth interval boundaries. Additionally, we analyzed the ability of the length of growth intervals with boundaries based on grapevine heat requirements to differentiate the best from the worst vintage years with the results showing that vintage quality is strongly related to the phenological events. Finally, we analyzed the variability of growth interval lengths in the Douro Valley during 1980-2009 with the results showing a tendency for earlier grapevine physiology.
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