2025
Authors
Reiz, C; Gouveia, C; Bessa, RJ; Lopes, JP; Kezunovic, M;
Publication
SUSTAINABLE ENERGY GRIDS & NETWORKS
Abstract
Increased electrification of various critical infrastructures has been recognized as a key to achieving decarbonization targets worldwide. This creates a need to better understand the risks associated with future power systems and how such risks can be defined, assessed, and mitigated. This paper surveys prior work on power system risk assessment and management and explores the various approaches to risk definition, assessment, and mitigation. As a result, the paper proposes how future grid developments should be assessed in terms of risk causes, what methodology may be used to reduce the risk impacts, and how such approaches can increase grid resilience. While we attempt to generalize and classify various approaches to solving the problem of risk assessment and mitigation, we also provide examples of how specific approaches undertaken by the authors in the past may be expanded in the future to address the design and operation of the future electricity system to manage the risk more effectively. The importance of the metrics for risk assessment and methodology for quantification of risk reduction are illustrated through the examples. The paper ends with recommendations on addressing the risk and resilience of the electricity system in the future resilient implementation while achieving decarbonization goals through massive electrification.
2025
Authors
Silva, CAM; Bessa, RJ;
Publication
APPLIED ENERGY
Abstract
The electrification of the transport sector is a critical element in the transition to a low-emissions economy, driven by the widespread adoption of electric vehicles (EV) and the integration of renewable energy sources (RES). However, managing the increasing demand for EV charging infrastructure while meeting carbon emission reduction targets is a significant challenge for charging station operators. This work introduces a novel carbon-aware dynamic pricing framework for EV charging, formulated as a chance-constrained optimization problem to consider forecast uncertainties in RES generation, load, and grid carbon intensity. The model generates day-ahead dynamic tariffs for EV drivers with a certain elastic behavior while optimizing costs and complying with a carbon emissions budget. Different types of budgets for Scope 2 emissions (indirect emissions of purchased electricity consumed by a company) are conceptualized and demonstrate the advantages of a stochastic approach over deterministic models in managing emissions under forecast uncertainty, improving the reduction rate of emissions per feasible day of optimization by 24 %. Additionally, a surrogate machine learning model is proposed to approximate the outcomes of stochastic optimization, enabling the application of state-of-the-art explainability techniques to enhance understanding and communication of dynamic pricing decisions under forecast uncertainty. It was found that lower tariffs are explained, for instance, by periods of higher renewable energy availability and lower market prices and that the most important feature was the hour of the day.
2025
Authors
Gonçalves, C; Bessa, RJ; Teixeira, T; Vinagre, J;
Publication
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON SUSTAINABLE ENERGY
Abstract
Accurate power forecasting from renewable energy sources (RES) is crucial for integrating additional RES capacity into the power system and realizing sustainability goals. This work emphasizes the importance of integrating decentralized spatio-temporal data into forecasting models. However, decentralized data ownership presents a critical obstacle to the success of such spatio-temporal models, and incentive mechanisms to foster data-sharing need to be considered. The main contributions are a) a comparative analysis of the forecasting models, advocating for efficient and interpretable spline LASSO regression models, and b) a bidding mechanism within the data/analytics market to ensure fair compensation for data providers and enable both buyers and sellers to express their data price requirements. Furthermore, an incentive mechanism for time series forecasting is proposed, effectively incorporating price constraints and preventing redundant feature allocation. Results show significant accuracy improvements and potential monetary gains for data sellers. For wind power data, an average root mean squared error improvement of over 10% was achieved by comparing forecasts generated by the proposal with locally generated ones.
2025
Authors
Almeida, MF; Soares, FJ; Oliveira, FT;
Publication
2025 21ST INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON THE EUROPEAN ENERGY MARKET, EEM
Abstract
This paper presents an optimization model for electric vehicle (EV) fleet charging under MIBEL (Iberian Electricity Market). The model integrates EV charging with day-ahead forecasting for grid energy prices, photovoltaic (PV) generation, and local power demand, combined with a battery energy storage system (BESS) to minimize total charging costs, reduce peak demand, and maximize renewable use. Simulations across Baseline, Certainty, and Uncertainty scenarios show that the proposed approach would reduce total charging costs by up to 49%, lower carbon emissions by 73.7%, and improve SOC compliance, while smoothing demand curves to mitigate excessive contracted power charges. The results demonstrate the economic and environmental benefits of predictive and adaptive EV charging strategies, highlighting opportunities for further enhancements through real-time adjustments and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) integration.
2025
Authors
Retorta, F; Mello, J; Gouveia, C; Silva, B; Villar, J; Troncia, M; Chaves Avila, JP;
Publication
UTILITIES POLICY
Abstract
Local flexibility markets are a promising solution to aid system operators in managing the network as it faces the growth of distributed resources and the resulting impacts on voltage control, among other factors. This paper presents and simulates a proposal for an intra-day local flexibility market based on grid segmentation. The design provides a market-based solution for distribution system operators (DSOs) to address near-real-time grid issues. The grid segmentation computes the virtual buses that represent each zone and the sensitivity indices that approximate the impact of activating active power flexibility in the buses within the zone. This approach allows DSOs to manage and publish their flexibility needs per zone and enables aggregators to offer flexibility by optimizing their resource portfolios per zone. The simulation outcomes allow for the assessment of market performance according to the number of zones computed and show that addressing overloading and voltage control through zonal approaches can be cost-effective and counterbalance minor errors compared to node-based approaches.
2025
Authors
Varotto, S; Kazemi-Robati, E; Silva, B;
Publication
SUSTAINABLE ENERGY GRIDS & NETWORKS
Abstract
Research around the co-location of different renewable energy technologies in offshore sites is increasing due to the potential complementarity of different sources that could decrease the power output variability, and increase reliability. However, further decrease of the power fluctuations and higher economic profitability could be achieved with energy storage. In this work, a model is developed for optimal sizing and energy management of energy storage and delivery solutions to accommodate the hybridisation of an offshore wind park. A set of options is considered for energy storage: the integration of a battery energy storage system (BESS), hydrogen production for direct sale or hydrogen/fuel cell system. For energy delivery, an expansion of the transmission cable, hydrogen pipeline or transportation by ship is evaluated. The case study used to test the model is the offshore farm WindFloat Atlantic located near the coast of Viana do Castelo, Portugal, which is proposed to be hybridised with wave energy converters (WEC). Sensitivity analyses are performed on possible components' cost variations, hydrogen shipping frequency or sale price. The results show that hydrogen production from the studied offshore hybrid park is profitable, and the transmission through submarine pipeline is competitive with electrical connections by cable. The highest profitability is achieved when pipeline and cable expansion are combined. Hydrogen transportation by ship also appears profitable, in the eventuality that additional submarine transmission facilities cannot be installed.
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