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Publications

Publications by Jorge Freire Sousa

2016

An online learning approach to eliminate Bus Bunching in real-time

Authors
Moreira Matias, L; Cats, O; Gama, J; Mendes Moreira, J; de Sousa, JF;

Publication
APPLIED SOFT COMPUTING

Abstract
Recent advances in telecommunications created new opportunities for monitoring public transport operations in real-time. This paper presents an automatic control framework to mitigate the Bus Bunching phenomenon in real-time. The framework depicts a powerful combination of distinct Machine Learning principles and methods to extract valuable information from raw location-based data. State-of-the-art tools and methodologies such as Regression Analysis, Probabilistic Reasoning and Perceptron's learning with Stochastic Gradient Descent constitute building blocks of this predictive methodology. The prediction's output is then used to select and deploy a corrective action to automatically prevent Bus Bunching. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated using data collected from 18 bus routes in Porto, Portugal over a period of one year. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed method can potentially reduce bunching by 68% and decrease average passenger waiting times by 4.5%, without prolonging in-vehicle times. The proposed system could be embedded in a decision support system to improve control room operations. (C) 2016 Published by Elsevier B.V.

2015

Improving the accuracy of long-term travel time prediction using heterogeneous ensembles

Authors
Mendes Moreira, J; Jorge, AM; de Sousa, JF; Soares, C;

Publication
NEUROCOMPUTING

Abstract
This paper is about long-term travel time prediction in public transportation. However, it can be useful for a wider area of applications. It follows a heterogeneous ensemble approach with dynamic selection. A vast set of experiments with a pool of 128 tuples of algorithms and parameter sets (a&ps) has been conducted for each of the six studied routes. Three different algorithms, namely, random forest, projection pursuit regression and support vector machines, were used. Then, ensembles of different sizes were obtained after a pruning step. The best approach to combine the outputs is also addressed. Finally, the best ensemble approach for each of the six routes is compared with the best individual a&ps. The results confirm that heterogeneous ensembles are adequate for long-term travel time prediction. Namely, they achieve both higher accuracy and robustness along time than state-of-the-art learners.

2015

Urban Logistics Integrated in a Multimodal Mobility System

Authors
de Sousa, JF; Mendes Moreira, J;

Publication
2015 IEEE 18TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS

Abstract
In this paper we briefly present our feelings about urban logistic and its role in urban mobility. In some way, we can say that this is a position paper based on an extensive review of all known related published material. We support the development of new approaches for the management of passenger and freight transport together as a single logistics system; based on the access to more and more sophisticated flows of data and better communication means, we envisage the dissemination of sufficient information for the correct decision of every citizens between several mobility options in real time (especially with the support of mobile technology); and we sustain that new tools are needed to help the design of innovative business models and policies, and the change of habits and behaviors. We visualize urban logistics as a multi-stakeholder, multi-criteria and multimodal mobility dynamic system.

2014

Evaluating changes in the operational planning of public transportation

Authors
Mendes Moreira, J; De Freire Sousa, J;

Publication
Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing

Abstract
Operational planning at public transport companies is a complex process that usually comprises several phases. In the planning phase, schedules are constructed considering that buses arrive and depart as scheduled. Obviously, several disruptions frequently occur, but their impact on the operating conditions is not easy to estimate. This difficulty arises mostly due to the impossibility of testing different solutions under the same conditions. Indeed, typically, the available data are a result of the current plan, while new proposed solutions have not produced real data yet. Along this chapter we discuss the assessment of the impact of changes in the operational planning on the real operating conditions, before their occurrence. We present a framework for such assessment, which includes two components: the impact on costs, and the impact on revenues. We believe that this framework will be useful in future works on operational planning of public transport companies. © Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2014.

2014

An Incremental Probabilistic Model to Predict Bus Bunching in Real-Time

Authors
Moreira Matias, L; Gama, J; Mendes Moreira, J; de Sousa, JF;

Publication
ADVANCES IN INTELLIGENT DATA ANALYSIS XIII

Abstract
In this paper, we presented a probabilistic framework to predict Bus Bunching (BB) occurrences in real-time. It uses both historical and real-time data to approximate the headway distributions on the further stops of a given route by employing both offline and online supervised learning techniques. Such approximations are incrementally calculated by reusing the latest prediction residuals to update the further ones. These update rules extend the Perceptron's delta rule by assuming an adaptive beta value based on the current context. These distributions are then used to compute the likelihood of forming a bus platoon on a further stop - which may trigger an threshold-based BB alarm. This framework was evaluated using real-world data about the trips of 3 bus lines throughout an year running on the city of Porto, Portugal. The results are promising.

2016

An Operations Research-Based Morphological Analysis to Support Environmental Management Decision-Making

Authors
Teles, MD; de Sousa, JF;

Publication
DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS VI - ADDRESSING SUSTAINABILITY AND SOCIETAL CHALLENGES

Abstract
In this paper the authors present a meta-model aiming to support decision-makers that wish to know more about how to use systems models to cope with the integration of environmental concerns into the company strategy. This is made by using a General Morphological Analysis (GMA) to bridge the gap between Operations Research (OR) analysts, decision-makers and stake-holders, making all of them part of the problem structuring and formulation process, particularly in societal issues like the environmental ones. The novelty of this approach is two-fold: (i) there are no examples in literature of a GMA research that address a linkage between environmental practices, strategic objectives, and the integration of stakeholders in the decision-making process at the level of a company; (ii) there is no GMA that had covered all the phases of a decision-making problem (problem definition, problem analysis and problem solving) in such a context.

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