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Publications

Publications by Vera Miguéis

2017

Predicting direct marketing response in banking: comparison of class imbalance methods

Authors
Migueis, VL; Camanho, AS; Borges, J;

Publication
SERVICE BUSINESS

Abstract
Customers' response is an important topic in direct marketing. This study proposes a data mining response model supported by random forests to support the definition of target customers for banking campaigns. Class imbalance is a typical problem in telemarketing that can affect the performance of the data mining techniques. This study also contributes to the literature by exploring the use of class imbalance methods in the banking context. The performance of an undersampling method (the EasyEnsemble algorithm) is compared with that of an oversampling method (the Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique) in order to determine the most appropriate specification. The importance of the attribute features included in the response model is also explored. In particular, discriminative performance was enhanced by the inclusion of demographic information, contact details and socio-economic features. Random forests, supported by an undersampling algorithm, presented very high prediction performance, outperforming the other techniques explored.

2017

Exploring the relationship between corruption and health care services, education services and standard of living

Authors
Morais, P; Migueis, VL; Camanho, A;

Publication
Lecture Notes in Business Information Processing

Abstract
Understanding the impact of corruption in modern societies, namely in standard of living, health and education services, is an issue that has attracted increased attention in recent years. This paper examines the relationship between the Corruption Perception Index (CPI) provided by Transparency International and the Human Development Index (HDI) of the United Nations Development Program and its components. The analysis is done for clusters of countries with similar levels of development. For the countries with high levels of development, it was found a negative relationship between corruption and human development. Moreover, for these countries, higher corruption levels are related to poor health care services, poor education services and low standard of living. For the other clusters of countries, these relationships were not statistically significant. The results obtained reinforce the importance of efforts by international politicians and organizations in fighting corruption, particularly in highly developed countries, to promote development. © Springer International Publishing AG 2017.

2017

Forecasting bivalve landings with multiple regression and data mining techniques: The case of the Portuguese Artisanal Dredge Fleet

Authors
Oliveira, MM; Camanho, AS; Walden, JB; Migueis, VL; Ferreira, NB; Gaspar, MB;

Publication
MARINE POLICY

Abstract
This paper develops a decision support tool that can help fishery authorities to forecast bivalve landings for the dredge fleet accounting for several contextual conditions. These include weather conditions, phytotoxins episodes, stock-biomass indicators per species and tourism levels. Vessel characteristics and fishing effort are also taken into account for the estimation of landings. The relationship between these factors and monthly quantities landed per vessel is explored using multiple linear regression models and data mining techniques (random forests, support vector machines and neural networks). The models are specified for different regions in the Portugal mainland (Northwest, Southwest and South) using six years of data 2010-2015). Results showed that the impact of the contextual factors varies between regions and also depends on the vessels target species. The data mining techniques, namely the random forests, proved to be a robust decision support tool in this context, outperforming the predictive performance of the most popular technique used in this context, i.e. linear regression.

2014

Desenho de promoções diferenciadas em empresas de retalho recorrendo à segmentação de clientes

Authors
Miguéis, VL; Camanho, AS; Cunha, JFe;

Publication
Investigação operacional em ação: casos de aplicação

Abstract

2013

Customer attrition in retailing: An application of Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines

Authors
Migueis, VL; Camanho, A; Falcao e Cunha, JFE;

Publication
EXPERT SYSTEMS WITH APPLICATIONS

Abstract
The profit resulting from customer relationship is essential to ensure companies viability, so an improvement in customer retention is crucial for competitiveness. As such, companies have recognized the importance of customer centered strategies and consequently customer relationship management (CRM) is often at the core of their strategic plans. In this context, a priori knowledge about the risk of a given customer to mitigate or even end the relationship with the provider is valuable information that allows companies to take preventive measures to avoid defection. This paper proposes a model to predict partial defection, using two classification techniques: Logistic regression and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS). The main objective is to compare the performance of MARS with Logistic regression in modeling customer attrition. This paper considers the general form of Logistic regression and Logistic regression combined with a wrapper feature selection approach, such as stepwise approach. The empirical results showed that MARS performs better than Logistic regression when variable selection procedures are not used. However, MARS loses its superiority when Logistic regression is conducted with stepwise feature selection.

2016

Using User-Generated Content to Explore Hotel Service Quality Dimensions

Authors
Migueis, VL; Novoa, H;

Publication
EXPLORING SERVICES SCIENCE (IESS 2016)

Abstract
A better evaluation and understanding of the client's perception of the service provided by hotels is critical for hotel managers, especially in the "Travel 2.0" era, where tourists not only access but also actively review the service provided. This paper analyses data automatically collected from TripAdvisor reviews regarding 2 star and 5 star hotels in Porto. TripAdvisor user generated content is explored through text mining techniques with the purpose of creating word clouds, synthesizing and prioritizing the aspects of the service raised by customers. Furthermore, this content is analyzed using the SERVQUAL model to identify the service quality dimensions most valued by guests of the two types of hotels. The results of the preliminary study demonstrate that the methodology proposed allows us to identify service perceptions with reasonable effectiveness, highlighting the potential of the procedure to become a complementary tool for hotel management.

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