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Publications

Publications by Cláudio Monteiro

2016

Unit Commitment Based on Risk Assessment to Systems with variable Power Sources

Authors
Fonte, PM; Monteiro, C; Barbosa, FM;

Publication
PROCEEDINGS OF THE IECON 2016 - 42ND ANNUAL CONFERENCE OF THE IEEE INDUSTRIAL ELECTRONICS SOCIETY

Abstract
This paper presents the development of a complete methodology for power systems scheduling with highly variable sources based on a risk assessment model. The methodology is tested in a real case study, namely an island with high penetration of renewable energy production. The uncertainty of renewable power production forecasts and load demand are defined by the probability distribution function, which can be a good alternative to the scenarios approach. The production mix chosen for each hour results from the costs associated to the operation risks, such as load shed and renewable production curtailment. The results to a seven days case study allow concluding about the difficulty to achieve a complete robust solution.

2013

Modeling the multiobjective optimization of electricity consumption for residential consumers

Authors
Bernal Agustin, JL; Cortes Arcos, T; Dufo Lopez, R; Lujano Rojas, JM; Monteiro, C;

Publication
Advanced Materials Research

Abstract
This paper presents a mathematical model to simultaneously optimize the cost of electricity and the satisfaction of a residential consumer using the communication infrastructure of a smart grid. For this task the concept of Pareto optimality has been used. It is possible to consider the satisfaction of the consumer as an independent objective to be maximized, and simultaneously, to minimize the cost of the electrical bill. In future works a multiobjective evolutionary algorithm will be applied along with the mathematical model presented in this paper. © (2013) Trans Tech Publications, Switzerland.

2013

Short-Term Power Forecasting Model for Photovoltaic Plants Based on Historical Similarity

Authors
Monteiro, C; Santos, T; Alfredo Fernandez Jimenez, LA; Ramirez Rosado, IJ; Sonia Terreros Olarte, MS;

Publication
ENERGIES

Abstract
This paper proposes a new model for short-term forecasting of electric energy production in a photovoltaic (PV) plant. The model is called HIstorical SImilar MIning (HISIMI) model; its final structure is optimized by using a genetic algorithm, based on data mining techniques applied to historical cases composed by past forecasted values of weather variables, obtained from numerical tools for weather prediction, and by past production of electric power in a PV plant. The HISIMI model is able to supply spot values of power forecasts, and also the uncertainty, or probabilities, associated with those spot values, providing new useful information to users with respect to traditional forecasting models for PV plants. Such probabilities enable analysis and evaluation of risk associated with those spot forecasts, for example, in offers of energy sale for electricity markets. The results of spot forecasting of an illustrative example obtained with the HISIMI model for a real-life grid-connected PV plant, which shows high intra-hour variability of its actual power output, with forecasting horizons covering the following day, have improved those obtained with other two power spot forecasting models, which are a persistence model and an artificial neural network model.

2013

Short-term forecasting model for electric power production of small-hydro power plants

Authors
Monteiro, C; Ramirez Rosado, IJ; Alfredo Fernandez Jimenez, LA;

Publication
RENEWABLE ENERGY

Abstract
This paper presents an original short-term forecasting model for hourly average electric power production of small-hydro power plants (SHPPs). The model consists of three modules: the first one gives an estimation of the "daily average" power production; the second one provides the final forecast of the hourly average power production taking into account operation strategies of the SHPPs; and the third one allows a dynamic adjustment of the first module estimation by assimilating recent historical production data. The model uses, as inputs, forecasted precipitation values from Numerical Weather Prediction tools and past recorded values of hourly electric power production in the SHPPs. The structure of the model avoids crossed-influences between the adjustments of such model due to meteorological effects and those due to the operation strategies of the SHPPs. The forecast horizon of the proposed model is seven days. which allows the use of the final forecast of the power production in Power System operations, in electricity markets, and in maintenance scheduling of SHPPs. The model has been applied in the forecasting of the aggregated hourly average power production for a real-life set of 130 SHPPs in Portugal achieving satisfactory results, maintaining the forecasting errors delimited in a narrow band with low values.

2013

New methodology for the optimization of the management of wind farms, including energy storage

Authors
Dufo Lopez, R; Bernal Agustin, JL; Monteiro, C;

Publication
Applied Mechanics and Materials

Abstract
Storing energy on wind farms could improve the power generation curve, avoiding the problems associated with abrupt variations and the random nature of wind power. New batteries such as flow batteries or NaS batteries are suitable to be used in storing energy on wind farms in intervals of some hours. A new methodology for the optimization of the management of wind farms, including energy storage, is shown. The objective is to maximize the benefits of selling electricity to the grid within 24 hours. The genetic algorithm technique was used for the optimization. © (2013) Trans Tech Publications, Switzerland.

2016

Net load forecasting in presence of renewable power curtailment

Authors
Fonte, PM; Monteiro, C; Barbosa, FM;

Publication
2016 13TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON THE EUROPEAN ENERGY MARKET (EEM)

Abstract
This paper analyzes a real case study based on an islanding power grid, where there is wind power curtailment during the grid operation. This curtailment skews the wind power production database creating a huge challenge to the overall power production forecast. Thus, it is presented a solution which has allowed more accurate forecasts in order to improve the renewable production and reduce the fuel consumption in thermal power plants. The proposed filtering approach demonstrated to be a good solution allowing wind power forecasts with less error and net load forecasts with more accuracy.

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