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Publications

Publications by José Manuel Oliveira

2016

The self-configuration of nodes using RSSI in a dense wireless sensor network

Authors
Abdellatif, MM; Oliveira, JM; Ricardo, M;

Publication
TELECOMMUNICATION SYSTEMS

Abstract
Wireless sensor networks (WSNs) may be made of a large amount of small devices that are able to sense changes in the environment, and communicate these changes throughout the network. An example of a similar network is a photo voltaic (PV) power plant, where there is a sensor connected to each solar panel. The task of each sensor is to sense the output of the panel which is then sent to a central node for processing. As the network grows, it becomes impractical and even impossible to configure all these nodes manually. And so, the use of self-organization and auto-configuration algorithms becomes essential. In this paper, three algorithms are proposed that allow nodes in the network to automatically identify their closest neighbors, relative location in the network, and select which frequency channel to operate in. This is done using the value of the Received Signal Strength Indicator (RSSI) of the messages sent and received during the setup phase. The performance of these algorithms is tested by means of both simulations and testbed experiments. Results show that the error in the performance of the algorithms decreases as we increase the number of RSSI values used for decision making. Additionally, the number of nodes in the network affects the setup error. However, the value of the error is still acceptable even with a high number of nodes.

2019

Assessing the Performance of Hierarchical Forecasting Methods on the Retail Sector

Authors
Oliveira, JM; Ramos, P;

Publication
ENTROPY

Abstract
Retailers need demand forecasts at different levels of aggregation in order to support a variety of decisions along the supply chain. To ensure aligned decision-making across the hierarchy, it is essential that forecasts at the most disaggregated level add up to forecasts at the aggregate levels above. It is not clear if these aggregate forecasts should be generated independently or by using an hierarchical forecasting method that ensures coherent decision-making at the different levels but does not guarantee, at least, the same accuracy. To give guidelines on this issue, our empirical study investigates the relative performance of independent and reconciled forecasting approaches, using real data from a Portuguese retailer. We consider two alternative forecasting model families for generating the base forecasts; namely, state space models and ARIMA. Appropriate models from both families are chosen for each time-series by minimising the bias-corrected Akaike information criteria. The results show significant improvements in forecast accuracy, providing valuable information to support management decisions. It is clear that reconciled forecasts using the Minimum Trace Shrinkage estimator (MinT-Shrink) generally improve on the accuracy of the ARIMA base forecasts for all levels and for the complete hierarchy, across all forecast horizons. The accuracy gains generally increase with the horizon, varying between 1.7% and 3.7% for the complete hierarchy. It is also evident that the gains in forecast accuracy are more substantial at the higher levels of aggregation, which means that the information about the individual dynamics of the series, which was lost due to aggregation, is brought back again from the lower levels of aggregation to the higher levels by the reconciliation process, substantially improving the forecast accuracy over the base forecasts.

2023

Forecasting Seasonal Sales with Many Drivers: Shrinkage or Dimensionality Reduction?

Authors
Ramos, P; Oliveira, JM; Kourentzes, N; Fildes, R;

Publication
APPLIED SYSTEM INNOVATION

Abstract
Retailers depend on accurate forecasts of product sales at the Store x SKU level to efficiently manage their inventory. Consequently, there has been increasing interest in identifying more advanced statistical techniques that lead to accuracy improvements. However, the inclusion of multiple drivers affecting demand into commonly used ARIMA and ETS models is not straightforward, particularly when many explanatory variables are available. Moreover, regularization regression models that shrink the model's parameters allow for the inclusion of a lot of relevant information but do not intrinsically handle the dynamics of the demand. These problems have not been addressed by previous studies. Nevertheless, multiple simultaneous effects interacting are common in retailing. To be successful, any approach needs to be automatic, robust and efficiently scaleable. In this study, we design novel approaches to forecast retailer product sales taking into account the main drivers which affect SKU demand at store level. To address the variable selection challenge, the use of dimensionality reduction via principal components analysis (PCA) and shrinkage estimators was investigated. The empirical results, using a case study of supermarket sales in Portugal, show that both PCA and shrinkage are useful and result in gains in forecast accuracy in the order of 10% over benchmarks while offering insights on the impact of promotions. Focusing on the promotional periods, PCA-based models perform strongly, while shrinkage estimators over-shrink. For the non-promotional periods, shrinkage estimators significantly outperform the alternatives.

2023

Investigating the Accuracy of Autoregressive Recurrent Networks Using Hierarchical Aggregation Structure-Based Data Partitioning

Authors
Oliveira, JM; Ramos, P;

Publication
BIG DATA AND COGNITIVE COMPUTING

Abstract
Global models have been developed to tackle the challenge of forecasting sets of series that are related or share similarities, but they have not been developed for heterogeneous datasets. Various methods of partitioning by relatedness have been introduced to enhance the similarities of sets, resulting in improved forecasting accuracy but often at the cost of a reduced sample size, which could be harmful. To shed light on how the relatedness between series impacts the effectiveness of global models in real-world demand-forecasting problems, we perform an extensive empirical study using the M5 competition dataset. We examine cross-learning scenarios driven by the product hierarchy commonly employed in retail planning to allow global models to capture interdependencies across products and regions more effectively. Our findings show that global models outperform state-of-the-art local benchmarks by a considerable margin, indicating that they are not inherently more limited than local models and can handle unrelated time-series data effectively. The accuracy of data-partitioning approaches increases as the sizes of the data pools and the models' complexity decrease. However, there is a trade-off between data availability and data relatedness. Smaller data pools lead to increased similarity among time series, making it easier to capture cross-product and cross-region dependencies, but this comes at the cost of a reduced sample, which may not be beneficial. Finally, it is worth noting that the successful implementation of global models for heterogeneous datasets can significantly impact forecasting practice.

2023

Cross-Learning-Based Sales Forecasting Using Deep Learning via Partial Pooling from Multi-level Data

Authors
Oliveira, JM; Ramos, P;

Publication
Communications in Computer and Information Science

Abstract

2009

A PROPOSED UNIFIED COMMUNICATIONS PLATFORM BASED ON OPEN SOURCE TECHNOLOGIES

Authors
Almeida, F; Cruz, J; Oliveira, J;

Publication
SISTEMAS E TECHNOLOGIAS DE INFORMACAO: ACTAS DA 4A CONFERENCIA IBERICA DE SISTEMAS E TECNOLOGIAS DE LA INFORMACAO

Abstract
Unified Communications (UC) have the potential to dramatically simplify and improve enterprise communications, reducing costs and improving revenue opportunities. This paper proposes an architecture of three layers for a UC solution based on open source technologies and open standards. The Infrastructure layer is responsible for the physical IP infrastructure network, the Server Hardware and Operating System layer includes the back-end operating system and server services that can be used by the UC platform and the Business Applications layer integrates the UC with other external applications. Finally, the paper presents the major benefits of UC solutions, giving a special emphasis to the benefits derived for the use of a standards-based I P communications.

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