Abstract
Weather conditions have a major impact on citizens’ daily mobility. Depending on weather conditions trips may be delayed, demand may be changed as well as the modal shift. These variations have a major impact on the use and operation of public transport, particularly in transport systems that operate close to capacity. However, the influence of weather conditions on transport demand is difficult to predict and quantify. For this purpose, an artificial neural network model – the Multilayer Perceptron – is used as a regression model to estimate the demand of urban public transport buses based on weather conditions. Transit bus ridership and weather conditions were collected along a year from a medium-size European metropolitan area (Oporto, Portugal) and linked under the assumption that individuals choose the travel mode based on the weather conditions that are observed during the departure hour, the hour before and two hours before. The transit ridership data were also labelled according to the hour, day of the week, month, and whether there was a strike and/or holiday or not. The results demonstrate that it is possible to predict the demand of public transport buses using the weather conditions observed two hours before with low error for the entire network (MAE = 143 and RMSE = 322). The use of weather conditions allow to decreases the error of the prediction by ~8% for the entire network. © 2021, The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.

Abstract

Abstract
People that do not have access to the transport system and therefore, a facilitated access to goods and services essential to daily life, can be regarded as transport-related social excluded. This is a big issue, namely for groups of people that have physical, sensorial and/or cognitive limitations. This paper provides guidelines to design route planners for socially excluded groups, by promoting social inclusion in public transportation. For this purpose, a set of mock-up user-interfaces of an inclusive inter-modal route planning application were developed. These interfaces will deliver ready availability of information about infrastructures and other journey related data. © 2020, ICST Institute for Computer Sciences, Social Informatics and Telecommunications Engineering.

Abstract

Abstract
AbstractThis work apply a deep learning artificial neural network model – the Multilayer Perceptron – as a regression model to estimate the demand of bus passengers. Transit bus ridership and weather conditions were collected over a year from a medium-size European metropolitan area and linked under the assumption: individuals choose the travel mode based on the weather conditions that are observed during (a) the departure hour, (b) the hour before or (c) two hours prior to the travel start. The transit ridership data were also labelled according to the hour of the day, day of the week, month, and whether there was a strike and/or holiday or not. The results show that the prediction error of the model decrease by ~9% when the weather conditions observed two hours before travel start is taken into account. The model sensitivity analyses reveals that the worst performance is obtained for a strike day of a weekday in spring (typically Wednesdays or Thursdays).