Mohammad Javadi

Abstract
A novel ensemble algorithm based on kernel density estimation (KDE) is proposed to forecast distributed generation (DG) from renewable energy sources (RES). The proposed method relies solely on publicly available historical input variables (e.g., meteorological forecasts) and the corresponding local output (e.g., recorded power generation). Given a new case (with forecasted meteorological variables), the resulting power generation is forecasted. This is performed by calculating a KDE-based similarity index to determine a set of most similar cases from the historical dataset. Then, the outputs of the most similar cases are used to calculate an ensemble prediction. The method is tested using historical weather forecasts and recorded generation of a PV installation in Portugal. Despite only being given averaged data as input, the algorithm is shown to be capable of predicting uncertainties associated with high frequency weather variations, outperforming deterministic predictions based on solar irradiance forecasts. Moreover, the algorithm is shown to outperform a neural network (NN) in most test cases while being exceptionally faster (32 times). Given that the proposed model only relies on public locally-metered data, it is a convenient tool for DG owners/operators to effectively forecast their expected generation without depending on private/proprietary data or divulging their own.

Abstract

Abstract
Congestion in transmission lines is an important topic in power systems and it continues to be an area of active research. Various approaches have been proposed to mitigate congestion especially immediate ready ones such as Congestion Management (CM) and Transmission Switching (TS). Using either of the two or their combination (CMTS) may have undesirable consequences like increasing operational costs or increasing the number of switching of transmission lines. More switching aggravates system reliability and imposes extra costs on the operator. In this paper, a multi-objective model is introduced which reduces overall operation costs, the number of switching in transmission lines, and the congestion of lines, compared to available approaches which employ congestion management and TS simultaneously. To verify the performance of the proposed model, it is implemented using GAMS and tested on 6- and 118- bus IEEE test systems. A benders' decomposition approach was employed. © 2019 IEEE.

Abstract
This paper presents an operation strategy of energy hubs in the presence of electrical, heating, and cooling demand as well as renewable power generation uncertainties. The proposed strategy can be used for optimal decision making of energy providers companies, as well as, other private participants of hub operators. The presence of electrical energy storage devise in the assumed energy hub can handle the fluctuations in the operating points raised by such uncertainties. In order to modeling of hourly demands and renewable power generation uncertainties a scenario generation model is adopted in this paper. The considered energy hub in this study follows a centralized framework and the energy hub operator is responsible for optimal operation of the hub assets based on the day-ahead scheduling. The simulation result illustrates that in the presence of electrical energy storage devices the optimal operation of hub assets can be attained. © 2019 IEEE.

Abstract