Details
Name
Patrícia RamosCluster
Industrial and Systems EngineeringRole
Senior ResearcherSince
01st June 2009
Nationality
PortugalCentre
Enterprise Systems EngineeringContacts
+351222094398
patricia.ramos@inesctec.pt
2022
Authors
Petropoulos, F; Apiletti, D; Assimakopoulos, V; Babai, MZ; Barrow, DK; Ben Taieb, S; Bergmeir, C; Bessa, RJ; Bijak, J; Boylan, JE; Browell, J; Carnevale, C; Castle, JL; Cirillo, P; Clements, MP; Cordeiro, C; Oliveira, FLC; De Baets, S; Dokumentov, A; Ellison, J; Fiszeder, P; Franses, PH; Frazier, DT; Gilliland, M; Gonul, MS; Goodwin, P; Grossi, L; Grushka Cockayne, Y; Guidolin, M; Guidolin, M; Gunter, U; Guo, XJ; Guseo, R; Harvey, N; Hendry, DF; Hollyman, R; Januschowski, T; Jeon, J; Jose, VRR; Kang, YF; Koehler, AB; Kolassa, S; Kourentzes, N; Leva, S; Li, F; Litsiou, K; Makridakis, S; Martin, GM; Martinez, AB; Meeran, S; Modis, T; Nikolopoulos, K; Onkal, D; Paccagnini, A; Panagiotelis, A; Panapakidis, I; Pavia, JM; Pedio, M; Pedregal, DJ; Pinson, P; Ramos, P; Rapach, DE; Reade, JJ; Rostami Tabar, B; Rubaszek, M; Sermpinis, G; Shang, HL; Spiliotis, E; Syntetos, AA; Talagala, PD; Talagala, TS; Tashman, L; Thomakos, D; Thorarinsdottir, T; Todini, E; Arenas, JRT; Wang, XQ; Winkler, RL; Yusupova, A; Ziel, F;
Publication
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING
Abstract
Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases. (C) 2021 The Author( s). Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of International Institute of Forecasters.
2019
Authors
Kandasamy, S; Morla, R; Ramos, P; Ricardo, M;
Publication
WIRELESS NETWORKS
Abstract
In IEEE 802.11 based wireless networks interference increases as more access points are added. A metric helping to quantize this interference seems to be of high interest. In this paper we study the relationship between the (Formula presented.) metric, which captures interference, and throughput for IEEE 802.11 based network using directional antenna. The (Formula presented.) model was found to best represent the relationship between the interference metric and the network throughput. We use this model to predict the performance of similar networks and decide the best configuration a network operator could use for planning his network. © 2017 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC
2019
Authors
Oliveira, JM; Ramos, P;
Publication
ENTROPY
Abstract
2016
Authors
Ramos, P; Oliveira, JM;
Publication
ALGORITHMS
Abstract
In this work, a cross-validation procedure is used to identify an appropriate Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model and an appropriate state space model for a time series. A minimum size for the training set is specified. The procedure is based on one-step forecasts and uses different training sets, each containing one more observation than the previous one. All possible state space models and all ARIMA models where the orders are allowed to range reasonably are fitted considering raw data and log-transformed data with regular differencing (up to second order differences) and, if the time series is seasonal, seasonal differencing (up to first order differences). The value of root mean squared error for each model is calculated averaging the one-step forecasts obtained. The model which has the lowest root mean squared error value and passes the Ljung-Box test using all of the available data with a reasonable significance level is selected among all the ARIMA and state space models considered. The procedure is exemplified in this paper with a case study of retail sales of different categories of women's footwear from a Portuguese retailer, and its accuracy is compared with three reliable forecasting approaches. The results show that our procedure consistently forecasts more accurately than the other approaches and the improvements in the accuracy are significant.
2016
Authors
Ramos, P; Oliveira, JM; Rebelo, R;
Publication
ADVANCES IN MANUFACTURING TECHNOLOGY XXX
Abstract
Forecasting future sales is one of the most important issues that is beyond all strategic and planning decisions in effective operations of retail supply chains. For profitable retail businesses, accurate sales forecasting is crucial in organizing and planning purchasing, production, transportation and labor force. Retail sales series belong to a special type of time series that typically contain strong trend and seasonal patterns, presenting challenges in developing effective forecasting models. This paper compares the forecasting performance of state space models and ARIMA models. The forecasting performance is demonstrated through a case study of retail sales of five different categories of women footwear: Boots, Booties, Flats, Sandals and Shoes. An approach based on cross-validation is used to identify automatically appropriate state space and ARIMA models. The forecasting performance of these models is also compared by examining the out-of-sample forecasts. The results indicate that the overall out-of-sample forecasting performance of ARIMA models evaluated via RMSE, MAE and MAPE is better than state space models. The performance of both forecasting methodologies in producing forecast intervals was also evaluated and the results indicate that ARIMA produces slightly better coverage probabilities than state space models for the nominal 95% forecast intervals. For the nominal 80% forecast intervals the performance of state space models is slightly better.
Supervised Thesis
2018
Author
Afonso Soares Canas Ferreira
Institution
UP-FEUP
2018
Author
Renato Jorge Araújo Neves
Institution
UM
2018
Author
Alexandre Carvalho Truppel
Institution
UP-FEUP
2018
Author
Bernardo Luis Fernandes Portela
Institution
UP-FCUP
2018
Author
Filipa Sá Couto de Oliveira Fernandes
Institution
UP-FEP
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