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Publications

2019

Predicting throughput in IEEE 802.11 based wireless networks using directional antenna

Authors
Kandasamy, S; Morla, R; Ramos, P; Ricardo, M;

Publication
Wireless Networks

Abstract
In IEEE 802.11 based wireless networks interference increases as more access points are added. A metric helping to quantize this interference seems to be of high interest. In this paper we study the relationship between the (Formula presented.) metric, which captures interference, and throughput for IEEE 802.11 based network using directional antenna. The (Formula presented.) model was found to best represent the relationship between the interference metric and the network throughput. We use this model to predict the performance of similar networks and decide the best configuration a network operator could use for planning his network. © 2017 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC

2019

Assessing the Performance of Hierarchical Forecasting Methods on the Retail Sector

Authors
Oliveira, JM; Ramos, P;

Publication
Entropy

Abstract
Retailers need demand forecasts at different levels of aggregation in order to support a variety of decisions along the supply chain. To ensure aligned decision-making across the hierarchy, it is essential that forecasts at the most disaggregated level add up to forecasts at the aggregate levels above. It is not clear if these aggregate forecasts should be generated independently or by using an hierarchical forecasting method that ensures coherent decision-making at the different levels but does not guarantee, at least, the same accuracy. To give guidelines on this issue, our empirical study investigates the relative performance of independent and reconciled forecasting approaches, using real data from a Portuguese retailer. We consider two alternative forecasting model families for generating the base forecasts; namely, state space models and ARIMA. Appropriate models from both families are chosen for each time-series by minimising the bias-corrected Akaike information criteria. The results show significant improvements in forecast accuracy, providing valuable information to support management decisions. It is clear that reconciled forecasts using the Minimum Trace Shrinkage estimator (MinT-Shrink) generally improve on the accuracy of the ARIMA base forecasts for all levels and for the complete hierarchy, across all forecast horizons. The accuracy gains generally increase with the horizon, varying between 1.7% and 3.7% for the complete hierarchy. It is also evident that the gains in forecast accuracy are more substantial at the higher levels of aggregation, which means that the information about the individual dynamics of the series, which was lost due to aggregation, is brought back again from the lower levels of aggregation to the higher levels by the reconciliation process, substantially improving the forecast accuracy over the base forecasts.

2016

A Procedure for Identification of Appropriate State Space and ARIMA Models Based on Time-Series Cross-Validation

Authors
Ramos, P; Oliveira, JM;

Publication
ALGORITHMS

Abstract
In this work, a cross-validation procedure is used to identify an appropriate Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model and an appropriate state space model for a time series. A minimum size for the training set is specified. The procedure is based on one-step forecasts and uses different training sets, each containing one more observation than the previous one. All possible state space models and all ARIMA models where the orders are allowed to range reasonably are fitted considering raw data and log-transformed data with regular differencing (up to second order differences) and, if the time series is seasonal, seasonal differencing (up to first order differences). The value of root mean squared error for each model is calculated averaging the one-step forecasts obtained. The model which has the lowest root mean squared error value and passes the Ljung-Box test using all of the available data with a reasonable significance level is selected among all the ARIMA and state space models considered. The procedure is exemplified in this paper with a case study of retail sales of different categories of women's footwear from a Portuguese retailer, and its accuracy is compared with three reliable forecasting approaches. The results show that our procedure consistently forecasts more accurately than the other approaches and the improvements in the accuracy are significant.

2016

Evaluating the Forecasting Accuracy of Pure Time Series Models on Retail Data

Authors
Ramos, P; Oliveira, JM; Rebelo, R;

Publication
ADVANCES IN MANUFACTURING TECHNOLOGY XXX

Abstract
Forecasting future sales is one of the most important issues that is beyond all strategic and planning decisions in effective operations of retail supply chains. For profitable retail businesses, accurate sales forecasting is crucial in organizing and planning purchasing, production, transportation and labor force. Retail sales series belong to a special type of time series that typically contain strong trend and seasonal patterns, presenting challenges in developing effective forecasting models. This paper compares the forecasting performance of state space models and ARIMA models. The forecasting performance is demonstrated through a case study of retail sales of five different categories of women footwear: Boots, Booties, Flats, Sandals and Shoes. An approach based on cross-validation is used to identify automatically appropriate state space and ARIMA models. The forecasting performance of these models is also compared by examining the out-of-sample forecasts. The results indicate that the overall out-of-sample forecasting performance of ARIMA models evaluated via RMSE, MAE and MAPE is better than state space models. The performance of both forecasting methodologies in producing forecast intervals was also evaluated and the results indicate that ARIMA produces slightly better coverage probabilities than state space models for the nominal 95% forecast intervals. For the nominal 80% forecast intervals the performance of state space models is slightly better.

2016

The Impacts of Ageing on Manufacturing Sectors

Authors
Nagarajan, R; Ramos, P;

Publication
ADVANCES IN MANUFACTURING TECHNOLOGY XXX

Abstract
The progress in medical science and the decline of altruistic behavior of couples introduced to the world the ageing problem. The existence of ageing is more experienced by developed countries. Researchers and policy makers are constantly trying to find ways to study the impacts of ageing since the issue is unprecedented in our history. However, the majority of the literature focus more on immediate mechanisms such as public expenditures and somehow neglected the influence of ageing on manufacturing sector. Thus, through panel data, we studied the influence of ageing on manufacturing sectors. The empirical study was carried out on six developed countries namely Japan, Germany, Italy, Greece, Finland and Portugal that have high ageing population. Our results suggest that the growth of the old age group over 65 years old will have significantly negative influence on percentage contribution of manufacturing to the GDP of these countries. Moreover, the results also demonstrate that a country with a higher proportion of old age group over working group will face fall in the manufacturing.

Supervised
thesis

2018

Applying Real-time Strategy Game Principles to Emergency Management

Author
Hugo Miguel Gonçalves Crespo Machado da Silva

Institution
UP-FEUP

2018

Layout aware router design and optimization for Wavelength-Routed Optical NoCs

Author
Alexandre Carvalho Truppel

Institution
UP-FEUP

2017

Previsão com agregação temporal univariada e multivariada: um caso de estudo no setor do retalho

Author
Ana Daniela Barbosa Rodrigues de Oliveira

Institution
UP-FEUP

2016

A internacionalização do setor bancário português - um modelo explicativo

Author
Diogo Monteiro Ferreira

Institution
IPP-ISCAP

2015

Gestão da Atividade Promocional Baseada em Previsões Suportadas por Informação Competitiva Diversa

Author
Cátia Sofia Pinto Ribeiro

Institution
UP-FEP