Abstract
Accurate demand forecasting is essential for retail operations as it directly impacts supply chain efficiency, inventory management, and financial performance. However, forecasting retail time series presents significant challenges due to their irregular patterns, hierarchical structures, and strong dependence on external factors such as promotions, pricing strategies, and socio-economic conditions. This study evaluates the effectiveness of Transformer-based architectures, specifically Vanilla Transformer, Informer, Autoformer, ETSformer, NSTransformer, and Reformer, for probabilistic time series forecasting in retail. A key focus is the integration of explanatory variables, such as calendar-related indicators, selling prices, and socio-economic factors, which play a crucial role in capturing demand fluctuations. This study assesses how incorporating these variables enhances forecast accuracy, addressing a research gap in the comprehensive evaluation of explanatory variables within multiple Transformer-based models. Empirical results, based on the M5 dataset, show that incorporating explanatory variables generally improves forecasting performance. Models leveraging these variables achieve up to 12.4% reduction in Normalized Root Mean Squared Error (NRMSE) and 2.9% improvement in Mean Absolute Scaled Error (MASE) compared to models that rely solely on past sales. Furthermore, probabilistic forecasting enhances decision making by quantifying uncertainty, providing more reliable demand predictions for risk management. These findings underscore the effectiveness of Transformer-based models in retail forecasting and emphasize the importance of integrating domain-specific explanatory variables to achieve more accurate, context-aware predictions in dynamic retail environments.

Abstract
Advancements in deep learning have revolutionized materials discovery by enabling predictive modeling of complex material properties. However, single-modal approaches often fail to capture the intricate interplay of compositional, structural, and morphological characteristics. This study introduces a novel multimodal deep learning framework for enhanced material property prediction, integrating textual (chemical compositions), tabular (structural descriptors), and image-based (2D crystal structure visualizations) modalities. Utilizing the Alexandriadatabase, we construct a comprehensive multimodal dataset of 10,000 materials with symmetry-resolved crystallographic data. Specialized neural architectures, such as FT-Transformer for tabular data, Hugging Face Electra-based model for text, and TIMM-based MetaFormer for images, generate modality-specific embeddings, fused through a hybrid strategy into a unified latent space. The framework predicts seven critical material properties, including electronic (band gap, density of states), thermodynamic (formation energy, energy above hull, total energy), magnetic (magnetic moment per volume), and volumetric (volume per atom) features, many governed by crystallographic symmetry. Experimental results demonstrated that multimodal fusion significantly outperforms unimodal baselines. Notably, the bimodal integration of image and text data showed significant gains, reducing the Mean Absolute Error for band gap by approximately 22.7% and for volume per atom by 22.4% compared to the average unimodal models. This combination also achieved a 28.4% reduction in Root Mean Squared Error for formation energy. The full trimodal model (tabular + images + text) yielded competitive, and in several cases the lowest, error metrics, particularly for band gap, magnetic moment per volume and density of states per atom, confirming the value of integrating all three modalities. This scalable, modular framework advances materials informatics, offering a powerful tool for data-driven materials discovery and design.

Abstract
This study investigates the effectiveness of different hyperparameter tuning strategies for peer-to-peer risk management. Ensemble learning techniques have shown superior performance in this field compared to individual classifiers and traditional statistical methods. However, model performance is influenced not only by the choice of algorithm but also by hyperparameter tuning, which impacts both predictive accuracy and computational efficiency. This research compares the performance and efficiency of three widely used hyperparameter tuning methods, Grid Search, Random Search, and Optuna, across XGBoost, LightGBM, and Logistic Regression models. The analysis uses the Lending Club dataset, spanning from 2007 Q1 to 2020 Q3, with comprehensive data preprocessing to address missing values, class imbalance, and feature engineering. Model explainability is assessed through feature importance analysis to identify key drivers of default probability. The findings reveal comparable predictive performance among the tuning methods, evaluated using metrics such as G-mean, sensitivity, and specificity. However, Optuna significantly outperforms the others in computational efficiency; for instance, it is 10.7 times faster than Grid Search for XGBoost and 40.5 times faster for LightGBM. Additionally, variations in feature importance rankings across tuning methods influence model interpretability and the prioritization of risk factors. These insights underscore the importance of selecting appropriate hyperparameter tuning strategies to optimize both performance and explainability in peer-to-peer risk management models.

Abstract
Hyperparameter optimization (HPO) is critical for enhancing the predictive performance of machine learning models in credit risk assessment for peer-to-peer (P2P) lending. This study evaluates four HPO methods, Grid Search, Random Search, Hyperopt, and Optuna, across four models, Logistic Regression, Random Forest, XGBoost, and LightGBM, using three real-world datasets (Lending Club, Australia, Taiwan). We assess predictive accuracy (AUC, Sensitivity, Specificity, G-Mean), computational efficiency, robustness, and interpretability. LightGBM achieves the highest AUC (e.g., 70.77% on Lending Club, 93.25% on Australia, 77.85% on Taiwan), with XGBoost performing comparably. Bayesian methods (Hyperopt, Optuna) match or approach Grid Search’s accuracy while reducing runtime by up to 75.7-fold (e.g., 3.19 vs. 241.47 min for LightGBM on Lending Club). A sensitivity analysis confirms robust hyperparameter configurations, with AUC variations typically below 0.4% under ±10% perturbations. A feature importance analysis, using gain and SHAP metrics, identifies debt-to-income ratio and employment title as key default predictors, with stable rankings (Spearman correlation > 0.95, p<0.01) across tuning methods, enhancing model interpretability. Operational impact depends on data quality, scalable infrastructure, fairness audits for features like employment title, and stakeholder collaboration to ensure compliance with regulations like the EU AI Act and U.S. Equal Credit Opportunity Act. These findings advocate Bayesian HPO and ensemble models in P2P lending, offering scalable, transparent, and fair solutions for default prediction, with future research suggested to explore advanced resampling, cost-sensitive metrics, and feature interactions.

Abstract
This study explores the applicability of the Laffer Curve in the context of the European Union (EU) by analyzing the relationship between taxation and fiscal revenue across personal income tax (PIT), corporate income tax (CIT), and value-added tax (VAT). Utilizing a comprehensive panel data set spanning 1995 to 2022 across all 27 EU member states, the research also integrates the Bird Index to assess fiscal effort and employs advanced econometric techniques, including the Hausman Test and log-quadratic regression models, to capture the non-linear dynamics of the Laffer Curve. The findings reveal that excessively high tax rates, particularly in some larger member states, may lead to revenue losses due to reduced economic activity and tax evasion, highlighting the existence of optimal tax rates that maximize revenue while sustaining economic growth. By estimating threshold tax rates and incorporating the Bird Index, the study provides a nuanced perspective on tax efficiency and fiscal sustainability, offering evidence-based policy recommendations for optimizing tax systems in the European Union to balance revenue generation with economic competitiveness.