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Publications

2020

A Novel Ensemble Algorithm for Solar Power Forecasting Based on Kernel Density Estimation

Authors
Lotfi, M; Javadi, M; Osorio, GJ; Monteiro, C; Catalao, JPS;

Publication
Energies

Abstract
A novel ensemble algorithm based on kernel density estimation (KDE) is proposed to forecast distributed generation (DG) from renewable energy sources (RES). The proposed method relies solely on publicly available historical input variables (e.g., meteorological forecasts) and the corresponding local output (e.g., recorded power generation). Given a new case (with forecasted meteorological variables), the resulting power generation is forecasted. This is performed by calculating a KDE-based similarity index to determine a set of most similar cases from the historical dataset. Then, the outputs of the most similar cases are used to calculate an ensemble prediction. The method is tested using historical weather forecasts and recorded generation of a PV installation in Portugal. Despite only being given averaged data as input, the algorithm is shown to be capable of predicting uncertainties associated with high frequency weather variations, outperforming deterministic predictions based on solar irradiance forecasts. Moreover, the algorithm is shown to outperform a neural network (NN) in most test cases while being exceptionally faster (32 times). Given that the proposed model only relies on public locally-metered data, it is a convenient tool for DG owners/operators to effectively forecast their expected generation without depending on private/proprietary data or divulging their own.

2020

A strategy for electricity buyers in futures markets

Authors
Monteiro, C; Ramirez Rosado, IJ; Fernandez Jimenez, LA;

Publication
E3S Web of Conferences

Abstract
This paper presents an original trading strategy for electricity buyers in futures markets. The strategy applies a medium-term electricity price forecasting model to predict the monthly average spot price which is used to evaluate the Risk Premium for a physical delivery under a monthly electricity futures contract. The proposed trading strategy aims to provide an advantage relatively to the traditional strategy of electricity buyers (used as benchmark), anticipating the good/wrong decision of buying electricity in the futures market instead in the day-ahead market. The mid-term monthly average spot price forecasting model, which supports the trading strategy, uses only information available from futures and spot markets at the decision moment. Both the new trading strategy and the monthly average spot price forecasting model, proposed in this paper, have been successfully tested with historical data of the Iberian Electricity Market (MIBEL), although they could be applied to other electricity markets.

2020

Predictive Trading Strategy for Physical Electricity Futures

Authors
Monteiro, C; Alfredo Fernandez Jimenez, LA; Ramirez Rosado, IJ;

Publication
ENERGIES

Abstract
This article presents an original predictive strategy, based on a new mid-term forecasting model, to be used for trading physical electricity futures. The forecasting model is used to predict the average spot price, which is used to estimate the Risk Premium corresponding to electricity futures trade operations with a physical delivery. A feed-forward neural network trained with the extreme learning machine algorithm is used as the initial implementation of the forecasting model. The predictive strategy and the forecasting model only need information available from electricity derivatives and spot markets at the time of negotiation. In this paper, the predictive trading strategy has been applied successfully to the Iberian Electricity Market (MIBEL). The forecasting model was applied for the six types of maturities available for monthly futures in the MIBEL, from 1 to 6 months ahead. The forecasting model was trained with MIBEL price data corresponding to 44 months and the performances of the forecasting model and of the predictive strategy were tested with data corresponding to a further 12 months. Furthermore, a simpler forecasting model and three benchmark trading strategies are also presented and evaluated using the Risk Premium in the testing period, for comparative purposes. The results prove the advantages of the predictive strategy, even using the simpler forecasting model, which showed improvements over the conventional benchmark trading strategy, evincing an interesting hedging potential for electricity futures trading.

2020

Transition toward blockchain-based electricity trading markets

Authors
Lotfi, M; Monteiro, C; Shafie-khah, M; Catalão, JP;

Publication
Blockchain-based Smart Grids

Abstract

2019

Optimal Prosumer Scheduling in Transactive Energy Networks Based on Energy Value Signals

Authors
Lotfi, M; Monteiro, C; Javadi, MS; Shafie Khah, M; Catalao, JPS;

Publication
SEST 2019 - 2nd International Conference on Smart Energy Systems and Technologies

Abstract
We present a novel fully distributed strategy for joint scheduling of consumption and trading within transactive energy networks. The aim is maximizing social welfare, which itself is redefined and adapted for peer-to-peer prosumer-based markets. In the proposed scheme, hourly energy values are calculated to coordinate the joint scheduling of consumption and trading, taking into consideration both preferences and needs of all network participants. Electricity market prices are scaled locally based on hourly energy values of each prosumer. This creates a system where energy consumption and trading are coordinated based on the value of energy use throughout the day, rather than only the market price. For each prosumer, scheduling is done by allocating load (consumption) and supply (trading) blocks, maximizing the energy value globally and locally within the network. The proposed strategy was tested using a case study of typical residential prosumers. It was shown that the proposed model could provide potential benefits for both prosumers and the grid, albeit with a user-centered, fully distributed management model which relies solely on local scheduling in transactive energy networks. © 2019 IEEE.