Ahmed Adel Fares

Abstract
Forecasts of the effort or delivery date can play an important role in managing software projects, but the estimates provided by development teams are often inaccurate and time-consuming to produce. This is not surprising given the uncertainty that underlies this activity. This work studies the use of Monte Carlo simulations for generating forecasts based on project historical data. We have designed and run experiments comparing these forecasts against what happened in practice and to estimates provided by developers, when available. Comparisons were made based on the mean magnitude of relative error (MMRE). We did also analyze how the forecasting accuracy varies with the amount of work to be forecasted and the amount of historical data used. To minimize the requirements on input data, delivery date forecasts for a set of user stories were computed based on takt time of past stories (time elapsed between the completion of consecutive stories); effort forecasts were computed based on full-time equivalent (FTE) hours allocated to the implementation of past stories. The MMRE of delivery date forecasting was 32% in a set of 10 runs (for different projects) of Monte Carlo simulation based on takt time. The MMRE of effort forecasting was 20% in a set of 5 runs of Monte Carlo simulation based on FTE allocation, much smaller than the MMRE of 134% of developers' estimates. A better forecasting accuracy was obtained when the number of historical data points was 20 or higher. These results suggest that Monte Carlo simulations may be used in practice for delivery date and effort forecasting in agile projects, after a few initial sprints. © 2021 ACM.

Abstract
Sustainable agricultural production requires a controlled usage of water, nutrients, and minerals from the environment. Different strategies of plant irrigation are being studied to control the quantity and quality balance of the fruits. Regarding efficient irrigation, particularly in deficit irrigation strategies, it is essential to act according to water stress status in the plant. For example, in the vine, to improve the quality of the grapes, the plants are deprived of water until they reach particular water stress before re-watered in specified phenological stages. The water status inside the plant is estimated by measuring either the Leaf Potential during the Predawn or soil water potential, along with the root zones. Measuring soil water potential has the advantage of being independent of diurnal atmospheric variations. However, this method has many logistic problems, making it very hard to apply along all the yard, especially the big ones. In this study, the Predawn Leaf Water Potential (PLWP) is daily predicted by Machine Learning models using data such as grapes variety, soil characteristics, irrigation schedules, and meteorological data. The benefits of these techniques are the reduction of the manual work of measuring PLWP and the capacity to implement those models on a larger scale by predicting PLWP up to 7 days which should enhance the ability to optimize the irrigation plan while the quantity and quality of the crop are under control.

Abstract