José Paulos

Abstract
This article analyzes the effects of the current policy trends - high levels of distributed generation (DG) and grid load/capacity ratio - on network efficiency. It starts by illustrating the network losses performance under different DG and load/capacity conditions. The second part concerns the simulation of network investments with the purpose of loss reduction for diverse system circumstances, including the impact of DG levels, energy cost, and discount rate. The attained results showed that DG, particularly large parks, have a negative impact on network efficiency: network losses tend to intensify with DG growth, under the current regulation. Furthermore, network investments in loss reduction would have a small global impact on network efficiency if the DG parks' connection lines are not included in the grid concession (not subjected to upgrade). Finally, the study determines that it is preferable to invest sooner, rather than to postpone the grid reinforcement for certain conditions, namely for low discount rates. © 2022 IEEE.

Abstract

Abstract

Abstract
Over time, the electricity price and energy consumption are increasingly growing their weight as prime foundations of the electrical sector, with their analysis and forecasts being targeted as key elements for the stable maintenance of electricity markets. The advent of smart grids is escalating the importance of forecasting because of the expected ubiquitous monitoring and growing complexity of a data-rich ever-changing milieu. So, the increasing data volatility will require forecasting tools able to rapidly readjust to a dynamic environment. The Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN) approach is a solution that has recently re-emerged, emphasizing good performance, fast run-times and ease of parameterization. The merging of this model with more conventional methods allows us to obtain more sturdy solutions with shortened training times, when compared to conventional Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). Overall, the performance of the GRNN, although slightly inferior to that of the ANN, is suitable, but linked to much lower training times. Ultimately, the GRNN would be a proper solution to blend with the latest smart grids features, which may require much reduced forecasting training times.