Abstract
This study explores the application of multiple predictive algorithms under general versus route-specialized modeling strategies to estimate passenger boarding demand in public bus transportation systems. Accurate estimation of boarding patterns is essential for optimizing service planning, improving passenger comfort, and enhancing operational efficiency. This research evaluates a range of predictive models to identify the most effective techniques for forecasting demand across different routes and times. Two modeling strategies were implemented: a generalistic approach and a specialized one. The latter was designed to capture route-specific characteristics and variability. A real-world case study from a medium-sized metropolitan region in Brazil was used to assess model performance. Results indicate that ensemble-tree-based models, particularly XGBoost, achieved the highest accuracy and robustness in handling nonlinear relationships and complex interactions within the data. Compared to the generalistic approach, the specialized approach demonstrated superior adaptability and precision, making it especially suitable for long-term and strategic planning applications. It reduced the average RMSE by 19.46% (from 13.84 to 11.15) and the MAE by 17.36% (from 9.60 to 7.93), while increasing the average R² from 0.289 to 0.344. However, these gains came with higher computational demands and mean Forecast Bias (from 0.002 to 0.560), indicating a need for bias correction before operational deployment. The findings highlight the practical value of predictive modeling for transit authorities, enabling data-driven decision making in fleet allocation, route planning, and service frequency adjustment. Moreover, accurate demand forecasting contributes to cost reduction, improved passenger satisfaction, and environmental sustainability through optimized operations.

Abstract
Forest fires represent a significant and growing threat to natural ecosystems and human settlements, with their unpredictable behavior and capacity for rapid expansion over time, creating substantial challenges for effective prevention, control, and mitigation. This paper presents the development of a forest fire simulator designed to model and predict fire spread under varying environmental conditions. Such a simulator must consider how fire spreads in different locations and climate conditions, showing the final shape of the fire in a given period of time. Using the NetLogo agent-based modeling platform, a simulated forest environment was created in which trees function as autonomous agents interacting with one another and the environment. Identifying and understanding the risk factors that increase the likelihood of a fire occurring, as well as those that contribute to its spread and intensity, is essential for the development of an accurate forest fire simulator. Such a simulator can integrate the complex interactions among these variables to produce dynamic visualizations of fire progression, allowing users to evaluate different scenarios and make informed decisions for preventing, controlling and fighting forest fires. By incorporating key factors—such as vegetation density, temperature, humidity, topography, and wind direction—the system calculates the probability of fire propagation and generates visual representations of fire behavior over time. This tool allows users to forecast fire behavior and assess response strategies proactively, thereby improving the accuracy and efficiency of firefighting efforts. In addition, the simulator yields significant social benefits, especially for older adults residing in fire-prone areas, by supporting early warning systems, enabling prompt evacuations, and mitigating their susceptibility to fire-related risks through enhanced preparedness and coordinated response measures. © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2026.

Abstract
One of the key aspects of Industry 4.0 is using intelligent systems to optimize manufacturing processes by improving productivity and reducing costs. These systems have greatly impacted in different areas, such as demand prediction and quality assessment. However, the prognostics and health management of industrial equipment is one of the areas with greater potential. This paper presents a comparative analysis of deep learning architectures applied to the prediction of the remaining useful life (RUL) on public real industrial datasets. The analysis includes some of the most commonly employed recurrent neural network variations and a novel approach based on a hybrid architecture using transformers. Moreover, we apply explainability techniques to provide comprehensive insights into the model's decision-making process. The contributions of the work are: (1) a novel transformer-based architecture for RUL prediction that outperforms traditional recurrent neural networks; (2) a detailed description of the design strategies used to construct the models on two under-explored datasets; (3) the use of explainability techniques to understand the feature importance and to explain the model's prediction and (4) making models built for reproducibility available to other researchers.

Abstract
The increasing connectivity of Internet of Medical Things (IoMT) devices has accentuated their susceptibility to cyberattacks. The sensitive data they handle makes them prime targets for information theft and extortion, while outdated and insecure communication protocols further elevate security risks. This paper presents a lightweight and innovative approach that combines Benford's law with statistical distance functions to detect attacks in IoMT devices. The methodology uses Benford's law to analyze digit frequency and classify IoMT devices traffic as benign or malicious, regardless of attack type. It employs distance-based statistical functions like Jensen-Shannon divergence, KullbackLeibler divergence, Pearson correlation, and the Kolmogorov test to detect anomalies. Experimental validation was conducted on the CIC-IoMT-2024 benchmark dataset, comprising 45 features and multiple attack types. The best performance was achieved with the Kolmogorov test (alpha = 0.01), particularly in DoS ICMP attacks, yielding a precision of.99.24%, a recall of.98.73%, an F1 score of.98.97%, and an accuracy of.97.81%. Jensen-Shannon divergence also performed robustly in detecting SYN-based attacks, demonstrating strong detection with minimal computational cost. These findings confirm that Benford's law, when combined with well-chosen statistical distances, offers a viable and efficient alternative to machine learning models for anomaly detection in constrained environments like IoMT.

Abstract
As collaborative robots increasingly redefine industrial automation, understanding the factors that drive their adoption is essential to operations management. This study examines the main drivers of collaborative robot adoption in the Brazilian manufacturing sector by combining theory-driven framing with a machine learning classification approach. It was developed a Random Forest classifier to identify the strongest predictors of cobot adoption and to rank their relative importance. Data were collected from a sample of respondents-primarily managers and chief executive officers-representing 300 industrial companies. Grounded in the Technology-Organization-Environment (TOE) framework and complemented by Diffusion of Innovations (DoI) and Institutional (INT) perspectives, the analysis shows that technological advantages, namely space efficiency, cost reduction, and ease of integration, are critical drivers of adoption. Organizational factors, including proactive managerial involvement and alignment with an innovation-oriented culture, significantly increase the likelihood of collaborative robot uptake. The model demonstrated robust predictive performance and produced interpretable variable importance scores that confirm the relative influence of technological and managerial factors. These findings provide a structured lens for understanding and guiding managerial decision-making on cobot adoption and translate into practical recommendations for managers.

Abstract
Ensuring the security of Industrial Control Systems (ICS) is increasingly critical due to increasing connectivity and cyber threats. Traditional security measures often fail to detect evolving attacks, necessitating more effective solutions. This paper evaluates machine learning (ML) methods for ICS cybersecurity, using the ICS-Flow dataset and Optuna for hyperparameter tuning. The selected models, namely Random Forest (RF), AdaBoost, XGBoost, Deep Neural Networks, Artificial Neural Networks, ExtraTrees (ET), and Logistic Regression, are assessed using macro-averaged F1-score to handle class imbalance. Experimental results demonstrate that ensemble-based methods (RF, XGBoost, and ET) offer the highest overall detection performance, particularly in identifying commonly occurring attack types. However, minority classes, such as IP-Scan, remain difficult to detect accurately, indicating that hyperparameter tuning alone is insufficient to fully deal with imbalanced ICS data. These findings highlight the importance of complementary measures, such as focused feature selection, to enhance classification capabilities and protect industrial networks against a wider array of threats.