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Publicações

2015

Odin: a service for gamification of learning activities

Autores
Leal, José Paulo; Paiva, José; Queirós, Ricardo;

Publicação
Symposium on Languages, Applications and Technologies (SLATE), 4th

Abstract
Existing gami?cation services have features that preclude their use by e-learning tools. Odin is a gami?cation service that mimics the API of state-of-the-art services without these limitations. This paper describes Odin, its role in an e-learning system architecture requiring gami?cation, and details its implementation. The validation of Odin involved the creation of a small e-learning game, integrated in a Learning Management System (LMS) using the Learning Tools Interoperability (LTI) speci?cation.

2015

Strategic negotiation and trust in diplomacy–the DipBlue approach

Autores
Ferreira, A; Cardoso, HL; Reis, LP;

Publicação
Lecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics)

Abstract
The study of games in Artificial Intelligence has a long tradition. Game playing has been a fertile environment for the development of novel approaches to build intelligent programs. Multi-agent systems (MAS), in particular, are a very useful paradigm in this regard, not only because multi-player games can be addressed using this technology, but most importantly because social aspects of agenthood that have been studied for years by MAS researchers can be applied in the attractive and controlled scenarios that games convey. Diplomacy is a multi-player strategic zero-sum board game, including as main research challenges an enormous search tree, the difficulty of determining the real strength of a position, and the accommodation of negotiation among players. Negotiation abilities bring along other social aspects, such as the need to perform trust reasoning in order to win the game. The majority of existing artificial players (bots) for Diplomacy do not exploit the strategic opportunities enabled by negotiation, focusing instead on search and heuristic approaches. This paper describes the development of DipBlue, an artificial player that uses negotiation in order to gain advantage over its opponents, through the use of peace treaties, formation of alliances and suggestion of actions to allies. A simple trust assessment approach is used as a means to detect and react to potential betrayals by allied players. DipBlue was built to work with DipGame, a MAS testbed for Diplomacy, and has been tested with other players of the same platform and variations of itself. Experimental results show that the use of negotiation increases the performance of bots involved in alliances, when full trust is assumed. In the presence of betrayals, being able to perform trust reasoning is an effective approach to reduce their impact. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2015.

2015

Distribution System Operation Enhancement through Household Consumption Coordination in a Dynamic Pricing Environment

Autores
Paterakis, NG; Medeiros, MF; Catalao, JPS; Erdinc, O;

Publicação
2015 IEEE EINDHOVEN POWERTECH

Abstract
Increasing environmental concerns have motivated efforts for the modernization of the power system recently. As a result, the distribution system (DS) has been given specific importance. Especially, residential end-users have been rendered active trough the introduction of several assets such as electric vehicles, energy storage systems and self-production units. Although many opportunities emerge from the spreading of these so-called "smart" households, the DS may be negatively affected if appropriate coordination techniques are not developed. At this point, the distribution system operators (DSO) that are responsible for the operation of the DS need to intervene. The smart households struggle to minimize their daily electricity procurement cost by exploiting dynamic pricing tariff schemes. On the other hand, the DSO aims to minimize the active power losses of the DS. DS reconfiguration is a core element of the daily operational practice of DSO and should be considered in the development of coordination strategies. In this study, a two-side interaction framework is proposed in order to guarantee that both the smart households and the DSO sufficiently achieve their individual goals. State-of-the art computing techniques are also used in order to render the proposed formulation tractable for real-life applications.

2015

Integrated State & topology estimation based on a priori topology information

Autores
Freitas, V; Costa, AS;

Publicação
2015 IEEE Eindhoven PowerTech, PowerTech 2015

Abstract
This paper addresses the simultaneous estimation of state variables and network topology in the context of power system real-time modeling. The proposed method assumes that selected substations are modeled at the bus section level, and circuit breakers and disconnects are explicitly represented. Available information on the statuses of such switching branches are then treated as a priori topology information to be processed by a specialized estimator. The presumed topology will eventually be either validated or corrected by using the information conveyed by real-time measurements. An algorithm based on a fast version of orthogonal Givens rotations is employed to solve the integrated state & topology estimation problem. The proposed method preserves the bad data processing capabilities of weighted least-squares state estimators. The performance of the integrated state & topology estimator is assessed through its application to test systems derived from IEEE benchmark networks. © 2015 IEEE.

2015

Forecasting the Correct Trading Actions

Autores
Baia, L; Torgo, L;

Publicação
PROGRESS IN ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

Abstract
This paper addresses the problem of decision making in the context of financial markets. More specifically, the problem of forecasting the correct trading action for a certain future horizon. We study and compare two different alternative ways of addressing these forecasting tasks: i) using standard numeric prediction models to forecast the variation on the prices of the target asset and on a second stage transform these numeric predictions into a decision according to some pre-defined decision rules; and ii) use models that directly forecast the right decision thus ignoring the intermediate numeric forecasting task. The objective of our study is to determine if both strategies provide identical results or if there is any particular advantage worth being considered that may distinguish each alternative in the context of financial markets.

2015

Preliminary study for a Bayesian network prognostic model for Crohn's disease

Autores
Dias, CC; Magro, F; Rodrigues, PP;

Publicação
2015 IEEE 28TH INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM ON COMPUTER-BASED MEDICAL SYSTEMS (CBMS)

Abstract
Crohn's disease is one type of inflammatory bowel disease whose incidence is currently increasing, and may affect any part of both the small and large intestine, possibly irritating deeper layers of the organs. Being a chronic disease, neither treatment nor surgery actually heals the patients. Thus, focus has been given to identifying good prognostic models based on clinical factors since they are more easily included in daily practice. The aim of this work is to provide an initial study on the adequacy of a Bayesian network model to enhance the prognosis prediction for patients with Crohn's disease. Multicentric study data of patients with surgery or immunosuppression in the six month after diagnosis was used to derive a Bayesian network, focusing on the prognosis and the analysis of factors interaction, including clinical features, disease course, treatment, follow-up plan, and adverse events. Two models were evaluated (naive Bayes and Tree-Augmented Naive Bayes) and also compared with logistic regression, using cross-validation and ROC curve analysis. Preliminary results showed competitive accuracy (above 75%) and discriminative power (above 70%). The generated models presented interesting insights on factor interaction and predictive ability for the prognosis, supporting their use in future clinical decision support systems.

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