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Publicações

2016

MENTAL MODELS ABOUT SEISMIC EFFECTS: STUDENTS' PROFILE BASED COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS

Autores
Moutinho, S; Moura, R; Vasconcelos, C;

Publicação
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SCIENCE AND MATHEMATICS EDUCATION

Abstract
Nowadays, meaningful learning takes a central role in science education and is based in mental models that allow the representation of the real world by individuals. Thus, it is essential to analyse the student's mental models by promoting an easier reconstruction of scientific knowledge, by allowing them to become consistent with the curricular models presented in the classroom. In this context, the study aims to examine, through the application of a diagnostic instrument (Two-Tier Diagnostic Test), what students consider to be the seismic effects on soils and buildings, to analyse and to compare their mental models about some of these issues related to seismology, applying a questionnaire to 52 students from a Portuguese University attending an undergraduate degree in Geology and a master course in Biology and Geology teaching. The analysis of the data allowed concluding that undergraduate students have more inconsistent mental models than master students, mainly concerning the factors which influence the seismic risk, such as hazard and vulnerability, and the soils characteristics which influence the intensity of earthquakes. During their academic formation in the university, teachers present some curricular models to students which allow them to reconstruct their mental models and turn them scientifically consistent, enhancing the educational implications of this study that points to the need for teachers to be aware of the importance of the diagnosis of the students' mental models and to promote meaningful learning and scientific literacy autonomously and dynamically.

2016

Active learning and data manipulation techniques for generating training examples in meta-learning

Autores
Sousa, AFM; Prudencio, RBC; Ludermir, TB; Soares, C;

Publicação
NEUROCOMPUTING

Abstract
Algorithm selection is an important task in different domains of knowledge. Meta-learning treats this task by adopting a supervised learning strategy. Training examples in meta-learning (called meta examples) are generated from experiments performed with a pool of candidate algorithms in a number of problems, usually collected from data repositories or synthetically generated. A meta-learner is then applied to acquire knowledge relating features of the problems and the best algorithms in terms of performance. In this paper, we address an important aspect in meta-learning which is to produce a significant number of relevant meta-examples. Generating a high quality set of meta-examples can be difficult due to the low availability of real datasets in some domains and the high computational cost of labelling the meta-examples. In the current work, we focus on the generation of meta-examples for meta-learning by combining: (1) a promising approach to generate new datasets (called datasetoids) by manipulating existing ones; and (2) active learning methods to select the most relevant datasets previously generated. The datasetoids approach is adopted to augment the number of useful problem instances for meta-example construction. However not all generated problems are equally relevant. Active meta-learning then arises to select only the most informative instances to be labelled. Experiments were performed in different scenarios, algorithms for meta-learning and strategies to select datasets. Our experiments revealed that it is possible to reduce the computational cost of generating meta-examples, while maintaining a good meta-learning performance.

2016

Serious Games, Interaction, and Simulation - 5th International Conference, SGAMES 2015, Novedrate, Italy, September 16-18, 2015, Revised Selected Papers

Autores
de Carvalho, CV; Escudeiro, P; Coelho, A;

Publicação
SGAMES

Abstract

2016

Short-Term Price Forecasting Models Based on Artificial Neural Networks for Intraday Sessions in the Iberian Electricity Market

Autores
Monteiro, C; Ramirez Rosado, IJ; Alfredo Fernandez Jimenez, LA; Conde, P;

Publicação
ENERGIES

Abstract
This paper presents novel intraday session models for price forecasts (ISMPF models) for hourly price forecasting in the six intraday sessions of the Iberian electricity market (MIBEL) and the analysis of mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) obtained with suitable combinations of their input variables in order to find the best ISMPF models. Comparisons of errors from different ISMPF models identified the most important variables for forecasting purposes. Similar analyses were applied to determine the best daily session models for price forecasts (DSMPF models) for the day- ahead price forecasting in the daily session of the MIBEL, considering as input variables extensive hourly time series records of recent prices, power demands and power generations in the previous day, forecasts of demand, wind power generation and weather for the day- ahead, and chronological variables. ISMPF models include the input variables of DSMPF models as well as the daily session prices and prices of preceding intraday sessions. The best ISMPF models achieved lower MAPEs for most of the intraday sessions compared to the error of the best DSMPF model; furthermore, such DSMPF error was very close to the lowest limit error for the daily session. The best ISMPF models can be useful for MIBEL agents of the electricity intraday market and the electric energy industry.

2016

Probabilistic Forecasting of Day-ahead Electricity Prices for the Iberian Electricity Market

Autores
Moreira, R; Bessa, R; Gama, J;

Publicação
2016 13TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON THE EUROPEAN ENERGY MARKET (EEM)

Abstract
With the liberalization of the electricity markets, price forecasting has become crucial for the decision-making process of market agents. The unique features of electricity price, such as non-stationary, non-linearity and high volatility make this a very difficult task. For this reason, rather than a simple point forecast, market participants are more interested in a probabilistic forecast that is essential to estimate the uncertainty involved in the price. By focusing on this issue, the aim of this paper is to analyze the impact of external factors in the electricity price and present a methodology for probabilistic forecasting of day-ahead electricity prices from the Iberian electricity market. The models are built using regression techniques and aim to obtain, for each hour, the quantiles of 5% to 95% by steps of 5%.

2016

Metalearning to support competitive electricity market players' strategic bidding

Autores
Pinto, T; Sousa, TM; Morais, H; Praca, I; Vale, Z;

Publicação
ELECTRIC POWER SYSTEMS RESEARCH

Abstract
Electricity markets are becoming more competitive, to some extent due to the increasing number of players that have moved from other sectors to the power industry. This is essentially resulting from incentives provided to distributed generation. Relevant changes in this domain are still occurring, such as the extension of national and regional markets to continental scales. Decision support tools have thereby become essential to help electricity market players in their negotiation process. This paper presents a metalearner to support electricity market players in bidding definition. The proposed metalearner uses a dynamic artificial neural network to create its own output, taking advantage on several learning algorithms already implemented in ALBidS (Adaptive Learning strategic Bidding System). The proposed metalearner considers different weights for each strategy, based on their individual performance. The metalearner's performance is analysed in scenarios based on real electricity markets data using MASCEM (Multi-Agent Simulator for Competitive Electricity Markets). Results show that the proposed metalearner is able to provide higher profits to market players when compared to other current methodologies and that results improve over time, as consequence of its learning process.

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