2017
Autores
Fernandez, JR; Pinto, T; Silva, F; Praça, I; Vale, ZA; Corchado, JM;
Publicação
SSCI
Abstract
The electricity markets restructuring process encouraged the use of computational tools in order to allow the study of different market mechanisms and the relationships between the participating entities. Automated negotiation plays a crucial role in the decision support for energy transactions due to the constant need for players to engage in bilateral negotiations. This paper proposes a methodology to estimate bilateral contract prices, which is essential to support market players in their decisions, enabling adequate risk management of the negotiation process. The proposed approach uses an adaptation of the Q-Learning reinforcement learning algorithm to choose the best from a set of possible contract prices forecasts that are determined using several methods, such as artificial neural networks (ANN), support vector machines (SVM), among others. The learning process assesses the probability of success of each forecasting method, by comparing the expected negotiation price with the historic data contracts of competitor players. The negotiation scenario identified as the most probable scenario that the player will face during the negotiation process is the one that presents the higher expected utility value. This approach allows the supported player to be prepared for the negotiation scenario that is the most likely to represent a reliable approximation of the actual negotiation environment.
2019
Autores
Rodriguez Fernandez, J; Pinto, T; Silva, F; Praca, I; Vale, Z; Corchado, JM;
Publicação
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ELECTRICAL POWER & ENERGY SYSTEMS
Abstract
Automated negotiation plays a crucial role in the decision support for bilateral energy transactions. In fact, an adequate analysis of past actions of opposing negotiators can improve the decision-making process of market players, allowing them to choose the most appropriate parties to negotiate with in order to increase their outcomes. This paper proposes a new model to estimate the expected prices that can be achieved in bilateral contracts under a specific context, enabling adequate risk management in the negotiation process. The proposed approach is based on an adaptation of the Q-Learning reinforcement learning algorithm to choose the best scenario (set of forecast contract prices) from a set of possible scenarios that are determined using several forecasting and estimation methods. The learning process assesses the probability of occurrence of each scenario, by comparing each expected scenario with the real scenario. The final chosen scenario is the one that presents the higher expected utility value. Besides, the learning method can determine which is the best scenario for each context, since the behaviour of players can change according to the negotiation environment. Consequently, these conditions influence the final contract price of negotiations. This approach allows the supported player to be prepared for the negotiation scenario that is the most probable to represent a reliable approximation of the actual negotiation environment.
2016
Autores
Pinto, T; Vale, Z; Praça, I; Santos, G;
Publicação
ADVANCES IN PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS OF SCALABLE MULTI-AGENT SYSTEMS: THE PAAMS COLLECTION
Abstract
2016
Autores
Santos, G; Pinto, T; Vale, Z; Praa, I; Morais, H;
Publicação
HIGHLIGHTS OF PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS OF SCALABLE MULTI-AGENT SYSTEMS
Abstract
Power systems worldwide are complex and challenging environments. The increasing necessity for an adequate integration of renewable energy sources is resulting in a rising complexity in power systems operation. Multi-agent based simulation platforms have proven to be a good option to study the several issues related to these systems, including the involved players that act in this domain. To take better advantage of these systems, their integration is mandatory. The main contribution of this paper is the development of the Electricity Markets Ontology, which integrates the essential concepts necessary to interpret all the available information related to electricity markets, while enabling an easier cooperation and adequate communication between related systems. Additionally, the concepts and rules defined by this ontology can be extended and complemented according to the needs of other simulation and real systems in this area. Each system's particular ontology must import the proposed ontology, thus enabling the effective interoperability between independent systems.
2016
Autores
Freitas, A; Praça, I; Pinto, T; Sousa, T; Vale, Z;
Publicação
HIGHLIGHTS OF PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS OF SCALABLE MULTI-AGENT SYSTEMS
Abstract
The actual flexibility of the electricity sector, with a distributed nature and new players, such as the smart grid operator and several types of aggregators, brings new business models and introduces new challenges from the power systems technical operation point of view. In this context, the Network Operator Agent of the Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets ( MASCEM) plays a crucial role, not only in the scope of the technical validation of the economic transactions established by the market, but also has an agent that can be supporting the grid operation under the scope of a smart grid. A set of new features has been added to the Network Operator making it a "new agent", bringing a more effective decision support, from the grid technical operation point of view, and achieving its usefulness beyond MASCEM. In this paper the new features are described. A case study is also included to better illustrate the approach and to highlight its usefulness under the scope of a smart grid scenario.
2016
Autores
Faia, R; Pinto, T; Vale, Z;
Publicação
TRENDS IN PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS OF SCALABLE MULTI-AGENT SYSTEMS, THE PAAMS COLLECTION
Abstract
The electricity markets environment has changed completely with the introduction of renewable energy sources in the energy distribution systems. With such alterations, preventing the system from collapsing required the development of tools to avoid system failure. In this new market environment competitiveness increases, new and different power producers have emerged, each of them with different characteristics, although some are shared for all of them, such as the unpredictability. In order to battle the unpredictability, the power supplies of this nature are supported by techniques of artificial intelligence that enables them crucial information for participation in the energy markets. In electricity markets any player aims to get the best profit, but is necessary have knowledge of the future with a degree of confidence leading to possible build successful actions. With optimization techniques based on artificial intelligence it is possible to achieve results in considerable time so that producers are able to optimize their profits from the sale of Electricity. Nowadays, there are many optimization problems where there are no that cannot be solved with exact methods, or where deterministic methods are computationally too complex to implement. Heuristic optimization methods have, thus, become a promising solution. In this paper, a simulated annealing based approach is used to solve the portfolio optimization problem for multiple electricity markets participation. A case study based on real electricity markets data is presented, and the results using the proposed approach are compared to those achieved by a previous implementation using particle swarm optimization.
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