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Publicações

Publicações por Vera Miguéis

2025

Predicting demand for new products in fashion retailing using censored data

Autores
Sousa, MS; Loureiro, ALD; Miguéis, VL;

Publicação
EXPERT SYSTEMS WITH APPLICATIONS

Abstract
In today's highly competitive fashion retail market, it is crucial to have accurate demand forecasting systems, namely for new products. Many experts have used machine learning techniques to forecast product sales. However, sales that do not happen due to lack of product availability are often ignored, resulting in censored demand and service levels that are lower than expected. Motivated by the relevance of this issue, we developed a two-stage approach to forecast the demand for new products in the fashion retail industry. In the first stage, we compared four methods of transforming historical sales into historical demand for products already commercialized. Three methods used sales-weighted averages to estimate demand on the days with stock-outs, while the fourth method employed an Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm to account for potential substitute products affected by stock-outs of preferred products. We then evaluated the performance of these methods and selected the most accurate one for calculating the primary demand for these historical products. In the second stage, we predicted the demand for the products of the following collection using Random Forest, Deep Neural Networks, and Support Vector Regression algorithms. In addition, we applied a model that consisted of weighting the demands previously calculated for the products of past collections that were most similar to the new products. We validated the proposed methodology using a European fashion retailer case study. The results revealed that the method using the Expectation-Maximization algorithm had the highest potential, followed by the Random Forest algorithm. We believe that this approach will lead to more assertive and better-aligned decisions in production management.

2024

Development of the Dietary Pattern Sustainability Index (DIPASI): A novel multidimensional approach for assessing the sustainability of an individual's diet

Autores
Bôto, JM; Neto, B; Miguéis, V; Rocha, A;

Publicação
SUSTAINABLE PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION

Abstract
The adoption of sustainable dietary patterns that consider simultaneously nutritional well-being and reduced environmental impact is of paramount importance. This paper introduces the Dietary Pattern Sustainability Index (DIPASI), as a method to assess the sustainability of dietary patterns by covering the environmental, nutritional, and economic dimensions in a single score. Environmental indicators include carbon footprint, water footprint, and land use, the nutritional quality is evaluated through the Nutritional Rich Diet 9.3 score, and the economic aspects are considered using diet cost. DIPASI measures the deviation (in %) of an individual's diet in relation to a reference diet. The case study utilized dietary data from the Portuguese National Food, Nutrition, and Physical Activity Survey (IAN-AF 2015-2016), which included 2999 adults aged 18 to 64. The Portuguese dietary patterns (covering 1492 food products consumed), were compared against the reference Mediterranean diet. Results indicated that the Portuguese dietary pattern had a higher environmental impact (CF: 4.32 kg CO2eq/day, WF: 3162.88 L/day, LU: 7.03 m(2)/day), a lower nutritional quality (NRD9.3: 334), and a higher cost (6.65 euros/day) when compared to the Mediterranean diet (CF: 3.30 kg CO2eq/day, WF: 2758.84 L/day, LU: 3.67 m(2)/day, NRD9.3: 668, cost: 5.71 euros/day). DIPASI reveals that only 4% of the sample's population does not deviate or presents a positive deviation (> - 0.5%) from the Mediterranean diet, indicating that the majority of Portuguese individuals have lower sustainability performance. For the environmental sub-score, this percentage was 21.3%, for the nutritional sub-score was 10.9%, and for the economic sub-score was 34.2%. This study provides a robust framework for assessing dietary sustainability on a global scale. The comprehensive methodology offers an essential foundation for understanding and addressing challenges in promoting sustainable and healthy dietary choices worldwide.

2023

Towards Hyper-Relevance in Marketing: Development of a Hybrid Cold-Start Recommender System

Autores
Fernandes, L; Miguéis, V; Pereira, I; Oliveira, E;

Publicação
APPLIED SCIENCES-BASEL

Abstract
Recommender systems position themselves as powerful tools in the support of relevance and personalization, presenting remarkable potential in the area of marketing. The cold-start customer problematic presents a challenge within this topic, leading to the need of distinguishing user features and preferences based on a restricted set of transactional information. This paper proposes a hybrid recommender system that aims to leverage transactional and portfolio information as indicating characteristics of customer behaviour. Four independent systems are combined through a parallelised weighted hybrid design. The first individual system utilises the price, target age, and brand of each product to develop a content-based recommender system, identifying item similarities. Secondly, a keyword-based content system uses product titles and descriptions to identify related groups of items. The third system utilises transactional data, defining similarity between products based on purchasing patterns, categorised as a collaborative model. The fourth system distinguishes itself from the previous approaches by leveraging association rules, using transactional information to establish antecedent and precedence relationships between items through a market basket analysis. Two datasets were analysed: product portfolio and transactional datasets. The product portfolio had 17,118 unique products and the included 4,408,825 instances from 2 June 2021 until 2 June 2022. Although the collaborative system demonstrated the best evaluation metrics when comparing all systems individually, the hybridisation of the four systems surpassed each of the individual systems in performance, with a 8.9% hit rate, 6.6% portfolio coverage, and with closer targeting of customer preferences and smaller bias.

2024

Students' complex trajectories: exploring degree change and time to degree

Autores
Pêgo, JP; Miguéis, VL; Soeiro, A;

Publicação
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF EDUCATIONAL TECHNOLOGY IN HIGHER EDUCATION

Abstract
The complex trajectories of higher education students are deviations from the regular path due to delays in completing a degree, dropping out, taking breaks, or changing programmes. In this study, we investigated degree changing as a cause of complex student trajectories. We characterised cohorts of students who graduated with a complex trajectory and identified the characteristics that influenced the time to graduation. To support this predictive task, we employed machine learning techniques such as neural networks, support vector machines, and random forests. In addition, we used interpretable techniques such as decision trees to derive managerial insights that could prove useful to decision-makers. We validated the proposed methodology taking the University of Porto (Portugal) as case study. The results show that the time to degree (TTD) of students with and without complex trajectories was different. Moreover, the proposed models effectively predicted TTD, outperforming two benchmark models. The random forest model proved to be the best predictor. Finally, this study shows that the factors that best predict TTD are the median TTD and the admission regime of the programme of destination of transfer students, followed by the admission average of the previous programme. By identifying students who take longer to complete their studies, targeted interventions such as counselling and tutoring can be promoted, potentially improving completion rates and educational outcomes without having to use as many resources.

2024

Machine learning models for short-term demand forecasting in food catering services: A solution to reduce food waste

Autores
Rodrigues, M; Miguéis, V; Freitas, S; Machado, T;

Publicação
JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION

Abstract
Food waste is responsible for severe environmental, social, and economic issues and therefore it is imperative to prevent or at least minimize its generation. The main cause of food waste is poor demand forecasting and so it is essential to improve the accuracy of the tools tasked with these forecasts. The present work proposes four models meant to help food catering services predict food demand accurately and thus avoid overproducing or underproducing. Each model is based on a different machine learning technique. Two baseline models are also proposed to mimic how food catering services estimate future demand and to infer the added value of employing machine learning in this context. To verify the impact of the proposed models, they were tested on data from the three different canteens chosen as case studies. The results show that the models based on the random forest algorithm and the long short-term memory neural network produced the best forecasts, which would lead to a 14% to 52% reduction in the number of wasted meals. Furthermore, by basing their decisions on these forecasts, the food catering services would be able to reduce unmet demand by 3% to 16% when compared with the forecasts of the baseline models. Thus, employing machine learning to forecast future demand can be very beneficial to food catering services. These forecasts can increase the service level of food services and reduce food waste, mitigating its environmental, social, and economic consequences.

2024

Machine learning and cointegration for structural health monitoring of a model under environmental effects

Autores
Rodrigues, M; Miguéis, VL; Felix, C; Rodrigues, C;

Publicação
EXPERT SYSTEMS WITH APPLICATIONS

Abstract
Data-driven models have been recognized as powerful tools to support Structural Health Monitoring (SHM). This paper contributes to the literature by exploring two data-driven approaches to detect damage through changes in a set of variables that assess the condition of the structure, and accommodates the challenge that may arise due to the influence of environmental and operational variabilities. This influence is reflected in the response of the structure and can reduce the probability of detecting damage in a structure or increase the probability of signaling false positives. This paper conducts a comparative study between a machine learning detection approach (supported by linear regression, random forest, support vector machine, and neural networks) and a cointegration approach, with the aim of detecting damage as early as possible. This study also contributes to the literature by evaluating the merits of the damage detection methods using real data collected from a small-scale structure. The structure is analyzed in a reference state and a perturbed state in which damage is emulated. The results show that both approaches are able to detect damage within the first 24 h, without ever signaling false positives. The cointegration based approach can notably detect damage after 10 h and 15 minutes, while the machine learning approach takes 20 h 30 m to detect damage.

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