2024
Autores
Mendes Neves, T; Meireles, L; Mendes Moreira, J;
Publicação
MACHINE LEARNING
Abstract
This paper introduces the Large Events Model (LEM) for soccer, a novel deep learning framework for generating and analyzing soccer matches. The framework can simulate games from a given game state, with its primary output being the ensuing probabilities and events from multiple simulations. These can provide insights into match dynamics and underlying mechanisms. We discuss the framework's design, features, and methodologies, including model optimization, data processing, and evaluation techniques. The models within this framework are developed to predict specific aspects of soccer events, such as event type, success likelihood, and further details. In an applied context, we showcase the estimation of xP+, a metric estimating a player's contribution to the team's points earned. This work ultimately enhances the field of sports event prediction and practical applications and emphasizes the potential for this kind of method.
2024
Autores
---, MP; Mendes-Moreira, J;
Publicação
Abstract
2024
Autores
Kumar, R; Mendes-moreira, J; Chandra, J;
Publicação
ACM TRANSACTIONS ON KNOWLEDGE DISCOVERY FROM DATA
Abstract
Traffic forecasting problems involve jointly modeling the non-linear spatio-temporal dependencies at different scales. While graph neural network models have been effectively used to capture the non-linear spatial dependencies, capturing the dynamic spatial dependencies between the locations remains a major challenge. The errors in capturing such dependencies propagate in modeling the temporal dependencies between the locations, thereby severely affecting the performance of long-term predictions. While transformer-based mechanisms have been recently proposed for capturing the dynamic spatial dependencies, these methods are susceptible to fluctuations in data brought on by unforeseen events like traffic congestion and accidents. To mitigate these issues we propose an improvised spatio-temporal parallel transformer (STPT) based model for traffic prediction that uses multiple adjacency graphs passed through a pair of coupled graph transformer- convolution network units, operating in parallel, to generate more noise-resilient embeddings. We conduct extensive experiments on 4 real-world traffic datasets and compare the performance of STPT with several state-of-the-art baselines, in terms of measures like RMSE, MAE, and MAPE. We find that using STPT improves the performance by around 10 - 34% as compared to the baselines. We also investigate the applicability of the model on other spatio-temporal data in other domains. We use a Covid-19 dataset to predict the number of future occurrences in different regions from a given set of historical occurrences. The results demonstrate the superiority of our model for such datasets.
2024
Autores
Fontes, DBMM; Homayouni, SM; Fernandes, JC;
Publicação
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PRODUCTION RESEARCH
Abstract
This work extends the energy-efficient job shop scheduling problem with transport resources by considering speed adjustable resources of two types, namely: the machines where the jobs are processed on and the vehicles that transport the jobs around the shop-floor. Therefore, the problem being considered involves determining, simultaneously, the processing speed of each production operation, the sequence of the production operations for each machine, the allocation of the transport tasks to vehicles, the travelling speed of each task for the empty and for the loaded legs, and the sequence of the transport tasks for each vehicle. Among the possible solutions, we are interested in those providing trade-offs between makespan and total energy consumption (Pareto solutions). To that end, we develop and solve a bi-objective mixed-integer linear programming model. In addition, due to problem complexity we also propose a multi-objective biased random key genetic algorithm that simultaneously evolves several populations. The computational experiments performed have show it to be effective and efficient, even in the presence of larger problem instances. Finally, we provide extensive time and energy trade-off analysis (Pareto front) to infer the advantages of considering speed adjustable machines and speed adjustable vehicles and provide general insights for the managers dealing with such a complex problem.
2024
Autores
Chaichana, T; Reeve, G; Drury, B; Chakrabandhu, Y; Wangtueai, S; Yoowattana, S; Sookpotharom, S; Boonnam, N; Brennan, CS; Muangprathub, J;
Publicação
ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS
Abstract
Climate change has driven agriculture to alter farming methods for food production. This paper presents a new concept for monitoring, acquisition, management, analysis, and synthesis of ecological data, which captures the environmental determinants and direct gradients suited to a particular requirement for specific plant cultivation and sustainable agriculture. The purpose of this study is to investigate a smart seablite cultivation system. A novel digital agricultural method was developed and applied to digitised seablite cultivation. Machine learning was used to predict the future growth conditions of plants (seablites). The study identified the illustrative maps of seablite origins, a conceptual seablite smart farming model, essential factors for growing seablite, a digital circuit for cultivating seablite, and digital data of seablite growth phases comprised the digital data. The findings indicate that: (1) An indicator of soil salinity is a quantity of sodium chloride extracted from a seablite sample indicating its origin of environmental determinants. (2) Saline soil, saline water, pH, moisture, temperature, and sunlight are essential factors for seablite development. These factors are dependent on climate change and were measured using a smart seablite cultivation system. (3) Digital circuits of seablite cultivation provide a better understanding of the relationship between the essential factors for seablite growth and seablite growth phases. (4) Deep neural networks outperformed vector machines, with 86% accuracy at predicting future growth of seablites. Therefore, this finding showed that the essential seablite development factors can be manipulated as key controllers for agriculture in response to climate change and agriculture can be planned. Basic digitisation of specific plants aids plant migration. Digital agriculture is an important practice for agroecosystems.
2024
Autores
Yusuf, A; Oliveira, B; Pinto, A; Yannacopoulos, AN;
Publicação
MATHEMATICS
Abstract
A model of Edgeworthian economies is studied, in which participants are randomly chosen at each period to exchange two goods to increase their utilities, as described by the Cobb-Douglas utility function. Participants can trade deviating from their bilateral equilibrium, provided that the market and the trade follow appropriate symmetry conditions. The article aims to study the convergence to equilibrium in a situation where individuals or small groups of participants trade in a market, and prices are determined by interactions between the participants rather than by demand and supply alone. A dynamic matching and bargaining game is considered, with statistical duality imposed on the market game, ensuring that each participant has a counterpart with opposite preferences. This guaranties that there is sufficient incentive for trade. It is shown that, in each period, the expected logarithm of the trading price in the Edgeworthian economy equals the expected Walrasian price. This demonstrates that, under symmetry conditions, the trading price in the Edgeworthian economy is related to the Walrasian price, indicating convergence of the trading price in the Edgeworthian economy towards the Walrasian price. The study suggests that, under the right conditions, the decentralized trading model leads to price convergence similar to what would be expected in a more classical Walrasian economy, where prices balance demand and supply.
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