Abstract

Abstract

Abstract

Abstract
In this work we present XmuSer, a multi-relational framework suitable to explore temporal patterns available in multi-relational databases. xMuS er's main idea consists of exploiting frequent sequence mining, using an efficient and direct method to learn temporal patterns in the form of sequences. Grounded on a coding methodology and on the efficiency of sequence miners, we find the most interesting sequential patterns available and then map these findings into a new table, which encodes the multi-relational timed data using sequential patterns. In the last step of our framework, we use an ILP algorithm to learn a theory on the enlarged relational database that consists on the original multi-relational database and the new sequence relation. We evaluate our framework by addressing three classification problems.

Abstract
This work presents an optimized version of XMuSer, an ILP based framework suitable to explore temporal patterns available in multi-relational databases. XMuSer's main idea consists of exploiting frequent sequence mining, an efficient method to learn temporal patterns in the form of sequences. XMuSer framework efficiency is grounded on a new coding methodology for temporal data and on the use of a predictive sequence miner. The frameworks selects and map the most interesting sequential patterns into a new table, the sequence relation. In the last step of our framework, we use an ILP algorithm to learn a classification theory on the enlarged relational database that consists of the original multi-relational database and the new sequence relation. We evaluate our framework by addressing three classification problems and map each one of three different types of sequential patterns: frequent, closed or maximal. The experiments show that our ILP based framework gains both from the descriptive power of the ILP algorithms and the efficiency of the sequential miners. © 2012 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Abstract
The motivation for this work is the study and prediction of wind ramp events occurring in a large-scale wind farm located in the US Midwest. In this paper we introduce the SHRED framework, a stream-based model that continuously learns a discrete HMM model from wind power and wind speed measurements. We use a supervised learning algorithm to learn HMM parameters from discretized data, where ramp events are HMM states and discretized wind speed data are HMM observations. The discretization of the historical data is obtained by running the SAX algorithm over the first order variations in the original signal. SHRED updates the HMM using the most recent historical data and includes a forgetting mechanism to model natural time dependence in wind patterns. To forecast ramp events we use recent wind speed forecasts and the Viterbi algorithm, that incrementally finds the most probable ramp event to occur. We compare SHRED framework against Persistence baseline in predicting ramp events occurring in short-time horizons, ranging from 30 minutes to 90 minutes. SHRED consistently exhibits more accurate and cost-effective results than the baseline. © 2012 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.