2011
Autores
Pousinho, HMI; Mendes, VMF; Catalao, JPS;
Publicação
ENERGY
Abstract
In this paper, a stochastic programming approach is proposed for trading wind energy in a market environment under uncertainty. Uncertainty in the energy market prices is the main cause of high volatility of profits achieved by power producers. The volatile and intermittent nature of wind energy represents another source of uncertainty. Hence, each uncertain parameter is modeled by scenarios, where each scenario represents a plausible realization of the uncertain parameters with an associated occurrence probability. Also, an appropriate risk measurement is considered. The proposed approach is applied on a realistic case study, based on a wind farm in Portugal. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn.
2012
Autores
Pousinho, HMI; Mendes, VMF; Catalao, JPS;
Publicação
ENERGY CONVERSION AND MANAGEMENT
Abstract
In this paper, a mixed-integer quadratic programming approach is proposed for the short-term hydro scheduling problem, considering head-dependency, discontinuous operating regions and discharge ramping constraints. As new contributions to earlier studies, market uncertainty is introduced in the model via price scenarios, and risk aversion is also incorporated by limiting the volatility of the expected profit through the conditional value-at-risk. Our approach has been applied successfully to solve a case Study based on one of the main Portuguese cascaded hydro systems, requiring a negligible computational time.
2011
Autores
Pousinho, HMI; Mendes, VMF; Catalao, JPS;
Publicação
ENERGY CONVERSION AND MANAGEMENT
Abstract
The increased integration of wind power into the electric grid, as nowadays occurs in Portugal, poses new challenges due to its intermittency and volatility. Wind power prediction plays a key role in tackling these challenges. The contribution of this paper is to propose a new hybrid approach, combining particle swarm optimization and adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system, for short-term wind power prediction in Portugal. Significant improvements regarding forecasting accuracy are attainable using the proposed approach, in comparison with the results obtained with five other approaches.
2009
Autores
Rodrigues, RB; Mendes, VMF; Catalao, JPS;
Publicação
JOURNAL OF ELECTROSTATICS
Abstract
The escalating number of wind power plants in many countries makes their reliability and safety of crucial importance. One of the main causes of damages for wind power plants is constituted by lightning. Hence, appropriate tools for the lightning protection of wind power plants are required. We have developed a new computer program in Visual Basic, LPS 2008, which runs over AutoCAD and is able to perform risk assessment on a structure or on a service due to lightning flashes to ground. Computer simulations obtained by using LPS 2008 are presented, and conclusions are duly drawn.
2011
Autores
Pousinho, HMI; Mendes, VMF; Catalao, JPS;
Publicação
IEEJ TRANSACTIONS ON ELECTRICAL AND ELECTRONIC ENGINEERING
Abstract
The increased integration of wind power into the electric grid, as nowadays occurs in Portugal, poses new challenges due to its intermittency and volatility. Hence, good forecasting tools play a key role in tackling these challenges. In this paper, an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference approach is proposed for short-term wind power forecasting. Results from a real-world case study are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results obtained with other approaches. Numerical results are presented and conclusions are duly drawn. (C) 2011 Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
2009
Autores
Catalao, JPS; Pousinho, HMI; Mendes, VMF;
Publicação
ENGINEERING INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS FOR ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING AND COMMUNICATIONS
Abstract
This paper presents an artificial neural network approach for short-term wind power forecasting in Portugal. The increased integration of wind power into the electric grid, as nowadays occurs in Portugal, poses new challenges due to its intermittency and volatility. Hence, good forecasting tools play a key role in tackling these challenges. The accuracy of the wind power forecasting attained with the proposed approach is evaluated against persistence and ARIMA approaches, reporting the numerical results from a real-world case study.
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