Abstract
We study the European river Danube and the South American river Negro daily water levels. We present a fit for the Negro daily water level period and standard deviation. Unexpectedly, we discover that the river Negro and Danube are mirror rivers in the sense that the daily water levels fluctuations histograms are close to the universal non-parametric BHP and reversed BHP, respectively. Hence, the probability of a certain positive fluctuation range in the river Negro is, approximately, equal to the probability of the corresponding symmetric negative fluctuation range in the river Danube.

Abstract
We exhibit the construction of stable arc exchange systems from the stable laminations of hyperbolic diffeomorphisms. We prove a one-to-one correspondence between (i) Lipshitz conjugacy classes of C(1+H) stable arc exchange systems that are C(1+H) fixed points of renormalization and (ii) Lipshitz conjugacy classes of C(1+H) diffeomorphisms f with hyperbolic basic sets Lambda that admit an invariant measure absolutely continuous with respect to the Hausdorff measure on Lambda. Let HD(s)(Lambda) and HD(u)(Lambda) be, respectively, the Hausdorff dimension of the stable and unstable leaves intersected with the hyperbolic basic set L. If HD(u)(Lambda) = 1, then the Lipschitz conjugacy is, in fact, a C(1+H) conjugacy in (i) and (ii). We prove that if the stable arc exchange system is a C(1+HDs+alpha) fixed point of renormalization with bounded geometry, then the stable arc exchange system is smooth conjugate to an affine stable arc exchange system.

Abstract
Recently, the notion of a reinfection threshold in epidemiological models of only partial immunity has been debated in the literature. We present a rigorous analysis of a model of reinfection which shows a clear threshold behaviour at the parameter point where the reinfection threshold was originally described. Furthermore, we demonstrate that this threshold is the mean field version of a transition in corresponding spatial models of immunization. The reinfection threshold corresponds to the transition between annular growth of an epidemics spreading into a susceptible area leaving recovered behind and compact growth of a susceptible-infected-susceptible region growing into a susceptible area. This transition between annular growth and compact growth was described in the physics literature long before the reinfection threshold debate broke out in the theoretical biology literature.

Abstract
We prove a one-to-one correspondence between C1+ conjugacy classes of diffeomorphisms with hyperbolic sets contained in surfaces and stable and unstable pairs of one-dimensional C1+ self-renormalizable structures.

Abstract
We analyse the effect of the regulatory T cells (Tregs) in the local control of the immune responses by T cells. We obtain an explicit formula for the level of antigenic stimulation of T cells as a function of the concentration of T cells and the parameters of the model. The relation between the concentration of the T cells and the antigenic stimulation of T cells is an hysteresis, that is unfold for some parameter values. We study the appearance of autoimmunity from cross-reactivity between a pathogen and a self antigen or from bystander proliferation. We also study an asymmetry in the death rates. With this asymmetry we show that the antigenic stimulation of the Tregs is able to control locally the population size of Tregs. Other effects of this asymmetry are a faster immune response and an improvement in the simulations of the bystander proliferation. The rate of variation of the levels of antigenic stimulation determines if the outcome is an immune response or if Tregs are able to maintain control due to the presence of a transcritical bifurcation for some tuning between the antigenic stimuli of T cells and Tregs. This behavior is explained by the presence of a transcritical bifurcation.

Abstract
We study the SIS and SIRI epidemic models discussing different approaches to compute the thresholds that determine the appearance of an epidemic disease. The stochastic SIS model is a well known mathematical model, studied in several contexts. Here, we present recursively derivations of the dynamic equations for all the moments and we derive the stationary states of the state variables using the moment closure method. We observe that the steady states give a good approximation of the quasi-stationary states of the SIS model. We present the relation between the SIS stochastic model and the contact process introducing creation and annihilation operators. For the spatial stochastic epidemic reinfection model SIRI, where susceptibles S can become infected I, then recover and remain only partial immune against reinfection R, we present the phase transition lines using the mean field and the pair approximation for the moments. We use a scaling argument that allow us to determine analytically an explicit formula for the phase transition lines in pair approximation.