2021
Autores
Sousa, A; Faria, JP; Mendes-Moreira, J; Gomes, D; Henriques, PC; Graca, R;
Publicação
MACHINE LEARNING AND PRINCIPLES AND PRACTICE OF KNOWLEDGE DISCOVERY IN DATABASES, PT II
Abstract
Risk management is one of the ten knowledge areas discussed in the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK), which serves as a guide that should be followed to increase the chances of project success. The popularity of research regarding the application of risk management in software projects has been consistently growing in recent years, especially with the application of machine learning techniques to help identify risk levels of risk factors of a project before its development begins, with the goal of improving the likelihood of success of these projects. This paper presents the results of the application of machine learning techniques for risk assessment in software projects. A Python application was developed and, using Scikit-learn, two machine learning models, trained using software project risk data shared by a partner company of this project, were created to predict risk impact and likelihood levels on a scale of 1 to 3. Different algorithms were tested to compare the results obtained by high performance but non-interpretable algorithms (e.g., Support Vector Machine) and the ones obtained by interpretable algorithms (e.g., Random Forest), whose performance tends to be lower than their non-interpretable counterparts. The results showed that Support Vector Machine and Naive Bayes were the best performing algorithms. Support Vector Machine had an accuracy of 69% in predicting impact levels, and Naive Bayes had an accuracy of 63% in predicting likelihood levels, but the results presented in other evaluation metrics (e.g., AUC, Precision) show the potential of the approach presented in this use case.
2021
Autores
Homayouni, SM; Fontes, DBMM;
Publicação
ADVANCES IN PRODUCTION MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS: ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE FOR SUSTAINABLE AND RESILIENT PRODUCTION SYSTEMS, APMS 2021, PT I
Abstract
This work addresses the energy-efficient job shop scheduling problem and transport resources with speed scalable machines and vehicles which is a recent extension of the classical job shop problem. In the environment under consideration, the speed with which machines process production operations and the speed with which vehicles transport jobs are also to be decided. Therefore, the scheduler can control both the completion times and the total energy consumption. We propose a mixed-integer linear programming model that can be efficiently solved to optimality for small-sized problem instances.
2021
Autores
Homayouni, SM; Fontes, DBMM;
Publicação
JOURNAL OF GLOBAL OPTIMIZATION
Abstract
This paper addresses an extension of the flexible job shop scheduling problem by considering that jobs need to be moved around the shop-floor by a set of vehicles. Thus, this problem involves assigning each production operation to one of the alternative machines, finding the sequence of operations for each machine, assigning each transport task to one of the vehicles, and finding the sequence of transport tasks for each vehicle, simultaneously. Transportation is usually neglected in the literature and when considered, an unlimited number of vehicles is, typically, assumed. Here, we propose the first mixed integer linear programming model for this problem and show its efficiency at solving small-sized instances to optimality. In addition, and due to the NP-hard nature of the problem, we propose a local search based heuristic that the computational experiments show to be effective, efficient, and robust.
2021
Autores
Accinelli, E; Martins, F; Muniz, H; Oliveira, BMPM; Pinto, AA;
Publicação
DISCRETE AND CONTINUOUS DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS-SERIES B
Abstract
In this paper we propose and analyze a game theoretical model regarding the dynamical interaction between government fiscal policy choices toward innovation and training (I&T), firm's innovation, and worker's levels of training and education. We discuss four economic scenarios corresponding to strict pure Nash equilibria: the government and I&T poverty trap, the I&T poverty trap, the I&T high premium niche, and the I&T ideal growth. The main novelty of this model is to consider the government as one of the three interacting players in the game that also allow us to analyse the I&T mixed economic scenarios with a unique strictly mixed Nash equilibrium and with I&T evolutionary dynamical cycles.
2021
Autores
Afsar, A; Martins, F; Oliveira, BMPM; Pinto, AA;
Publicação
Springer Proceedings in Mathematics and Statistics
Abstract
We make two fits of an ODE system with 5 equations that model immune response by CD4 + T cells with the presence of regulatory T cells (Tregs). We fit the simulations to data regarding gp61 and NP309 epitopes from mice infected with lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus LCMV. We optimized parameters relating to: the T cell maximum growth rate; the T cell capacity; the T cell homeostatic level; and the ending time of the immune activation phase after infection. We quantitatively and qualitatively compare the obtained results with previous fits in the literature using different ODE models and we show that we are able to calibrate the model and obtain good fits describing the data. © 2021, Springer Nature Switzerland AG.
2021
Autores
Araujo, A; Maldonado, WL; Pinheiro, D; Pinto, AA; Soltanahmadi, MC;
Publicação
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC THEORY
Abstract
We propose a refinement process of dynamic equilibria based on small random perturbations (SRPs) of the backward perfect foresight (bpf) equilibrium map in a class of one-step, forward-looking dynamic models. An equilibrium is selected if its stationary measure is the limit of the stationary measures associated with the processes generated by the SRPs of the bpf maps, as the perturbation size approaches 0. We show that, for full measure sets of parameter values of a large class of one-parameter families of unimodal bpf maps, only determinate cycles or the chaotic sunspot equilibrium defined by Araujo and Maldonado (2000) is selected. Two examples are provided illustrating such refinement process.
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