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Publications

2025

Transformer-Based Models for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting with Explanatory Variables

Authors
Caetano, R; Oliveira, JM; Ramos, P;

Publication
MATHEMATICS

Abstract
Accurate demand forecasting is essential for retail operations as it directly impacts supply chain efficiency, inventory management, and financial performance. However, forecasting retail time series presents significant challenges due to their irregular patterns, hierarchical structures, and strong dependence on external factors such as promotions, pricing strategies, and socio-economic conditions. This study evaluates the effectiveness of Transformer-based architectures, specifically Vanilla Transformer, Informer, Autoformer, ETSformer, NSTransformer, and Reformer, for probabilistic time series forecasting in retail. A key focus is the integration of explanatory variables, such as calendar-related indicators, selling prices, and socio-economic factors, which play a crucial role in capturing demand fluctuations. This study assesses how incorporating these variables enhances forecast accuracy, addressing a research gap in the comprehensive evaluation of explanatory variables within multiple Transformer-based models. Empirical results, based on the M5 dataset, show that incorporating explanatory variables generally improves forecasting performance. Models leveraging these variables achieve up to 12.4% reduction in Normalized Root Mean Squared Error (NRMSE) and 2.9% improvement in Mean Absolute Scaled Error (MASE) compared to models that rely solely on past sales. Furthermore, probabilistic forecasting enhances decision making by quantifying uncertainty, providing more reliable demand predictions for risk management. These findings underscore the effectiveness of Transformer-based models in retail forecasting and emphasize the importance of integrating domain-specific explanatory variables to achieve more accurate, context-aware predictions in dynamic retail environments.

2025

Integrating Machine Learning and Digital Twins for Enhanced Smart Building Operation and Energy Management: A Systematic Review

Authors
Palley, B; Martins, JP; Bernardo, H; Rossetti, R;

Publication
URBAN SCIENCE

Abstract
Artificial Intelligence has recently expanded across various applications. Machine Learning, a subset of Artificial Intelligence, is a powerful technique for identifying patterns in data to support decision making and managing the increasing volume of information. Simultaneously, Digital Twins have been applied in several fields. In this context, combining Digital Twins, Machine Learning, and Smart Buildings offers significant potential to improve energy efficiency and operational effectiveness in building management. This review aims to identify and analyze studies that explore the application of Machine Learning and Digital Twins for operation and energy management in Smart Buildings, providing an updated perspective on these rapidly evolving topics. The methodology follows the PRISMA guidelines for systematic reviews, using Scopus and Web of Science databases. This review identifies the main concepts, objectives, and trends emerging from the literature. Furthermore, the findings confirm the recent growth in research combining Machine Learning and Digital Twins for building management, revealing diverse approaches, tools, methods, and challenges. Finally, this paper highlights existing research gaps and outlines opportunities for future investigation.

2025

Deep Learning-Driven Integration of Multimodal Data for Material Property Predictions

Authors
Costa, V; Oliveira, JM; Ramos, P;

Publication

Abstract
This study investigates the integration of deep learning for single-modality and multimodal data within materials science. Traditional methods for materials discovery are often resource-intensive and slow, prompting the exploration of machine learning to streamline the prediction of material properties. While single-modality models have been effective, they often miss the complexities inherent in material data. The paper explores multimodal data integration—combining text, images, and tabular data—and demonstrates its potential to improve predictive accuracy. Utilizing the Alexandria dataset, the research introduces a custom methodology involving multimodal data creation, model tuning with AutoGluon framework, and evaluation through targeted fusion techniques. Results reveal that multimodal approaches enhance predictive accuracy and efficiency, particularly when text and image data are integrated. However, challenges remain in predicting complex features like band gaps. Future directions include incorporating new data types and refining specialized models to improve materials discovery and innovation.

2025

Histopathological Imaging Dataset for Oral Cancer Analysis: A Study with a Data Leakage Warning

Authors
Nogueira, DM; Gomes, EF;

Publication
Proceedings of the 18th International Joint Conference on Biomedical Engineering Systems and Technologies, BIOSTEC 2025 - Volume 1, Porto, Portugal, February 20-22, 2025.

Abstract

2025

Promoting sustainable and personalized travel behaviors while preserving data privacy

Authors
Brito C.; Pina N.; Esteves T.; Vitorino R.; Cunha I.; Paulo J.;

Publication
Transportation Engineering

Abstract
Cities worldwide have agreed on ambitious goals regarding carbon neutrality. To do so, policymakers seek ways to foster smarter and cleaner transportation solutions. However, citizens lack awareness of their carbon footprint and of greener mobility alternatives such as public transports. With this, three main challenges emerge: (i) increase users’ awareness regarding their carbon footprint, (ii) provide personalized recommendations and incentives for using sustainable transportation alternatives and, (iii) guarantee that any personal data collected from the user is kept private. This paper addresses these challenges by proposing a new methodology. Created under the FranchetAI project, the methodology combines federated Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) estimation models to calculate the carbon footprint of users when choosing different transportation modes (e.g., foot, car, bus). Through a mobile application that keeps the privacy of users’ personal information, the project aims at providing detailed reports to inform citizens about their impact on the environment, and an incentive program to promote the usage of more sustainable mobility alternatives.

2025

Estimating Completeness of Consensus Models: Geometrical and Distributional Approaches

Authors
Strecht, P; Mendes-Moreira, J; Soares, C;

Publication
MACHINE LEARNING, OPTIMIZATION, AND DATA SCIENCE, LOD 2024, PT I

Abstract
In many organizations with a distributed operation, not only is data collection distributed, but models are also developed and deployed separately. Understanding the combined knowledge of all the local models may be important and challenging, especially in the case of a large number of models. The automated development of consensus models, which aggregate multiple models into a single one, involves several challenges, including fidelity (ensuring that aggregation does not penalize the predictive performance severely) and completeness (ensuring that the consensus model covers the same space as the local models). In this paper, we address the latter, proposing two measures for geometrical and distributional completeness. The first quantifies the proportion of the decision space that is covered by a model, while the second takes into account the concentration of the data that is covered by the model. The use of these measures is illustrated in a real-world example of academic management, as well as four publicly available datasets. The results indicate that distributional completeness in the deployed models is consistently higher than geometrical completeness. Although consensus models tend to be geometrically incomplete, distributional completeness reveals that they cover the regions of the decision space with a higher concentration of data.

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