2023
Authors
Silva, MEP; Fyles, M; Pi, L; Panovska Griffiths, J; House, T; Jay, C; Fearon, E;
Publication
EPIDEMICS
Abstract
Testing for infection with SARS-CoV-2 is an important intervention in reducing onwards transmission of COVID-19, particularly when combined with the isolation and contact-tracing of positive cases. Many countries with the capacity to do so have made use of lab-processed Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) testing targeted at individuals with symptoms and the contacts of confirmed cases. Alternatively, Lateral Flow Tests (LFTs) are able to deliver a result quickly, without lab-processing and at a relatively low cost. Their adoption can support regular mass asymptomatic testing, allowing earlier detection of infection and isolation of infectious individuals. In this paper we extend and apply the agent-based epidemic modelling framework Covasim to explore the impact of regular asymptomatic testing on the peak and total number of infections in an emerging COVID-19 wave. We explore testing with LFTs at different frequency levels within a population with high levels of immunity and with background symptomatic PCR testing, case isolation and contact tracing for testing. The effectiveness of regular asymptomatic testing was compared with ‘lockdown’ interventions seeking to reduce the number of non-household contacts across the whole population through measures such as mandating working from home and restrictions on gatherings. Since regular asymptomatic testing requires only those with a positive result to reduce contact, while lockdown measures require the whole population to reduce contact, any policy decision that seeks to trade off harms from infection against other harms will not automatically favour one over the other. Our results demonstrate that, where such a trade off is being made, at moderate rates of early exponential growth regular asymptomatic testing has the potential to achieve significant infection control without the wider harms associated with additional lockdown measures.
2023
Authors
Guedes, JG; Ribeiro, R; Carqueijeiro, I; Guimaraes, AL; Bispo, C; Archer, J; Azevedo, H; Fonseca, NA; Sottomayor, M;
Publication
Abstract
2023
Authors
Almeida, EN; Fontes, H; Campos, R; Ricardo, M;
Publication
PROCEEDINGS OF THE 2023 WORKSHOP ON NS-3, WNS3 2023
Abstract
Digital twins have been emerging as a hybrid approach that combines the benefits of simulators with the realism of experimental testbeds. The accurate and repeatable set-ups replicating the dynamic conditions of physical environments, enable digital twins of wireless networks to be used to evaluate the performance of next-generation networks. In this paper, we propose the Position-based Machine Learning Propagation Loss Model (P-MLPL), enabling the creation of fast and more precise digital twins of wireless networks in ns-3. Based on network traces collected in an experimental testbed, the P-MLPL model estimates the propagation loss suffered by packets exchanged between a transmitter and a receiver, considering the absolute node's positions and the traffic direction. The P-MLPL model is validated with a test suite. The results show that the P-MLPL model can predict the propagation loss with a median error of 2.5 dB, which corresponds to 0.5x the error of existing models in ns-3. Moreover, ns-3 simulations with the P-MLPL model estimated the throughput with an error up to 2.5 Mbit/s, when compared to the real values measured in the testbed.
2023
Authors
Ribeiro, RP; Mastelini, SM; Davari, N; Aminian, E; Veloso, B; Gama, J;
Publication
MACHINE LEARNING AND PRINCIPLES AND PRACTICE OF KNOWLEDGE DISCOVERY IN DATABASES, ECML PKDD 2022, PT II
Abstract
Predictive Maintenance applications are increasingly complex, with interactions between many components. Black-box models are popular approaches due to their predictive accuracy and are based on deep-learning techniques. This paper presents an architecture that uses an online rule learning algorithm to explain when the black-box model predicts rare events. The system can present global explanations that model the black-box model and local explanations that describe why the black-box model predicts a failure. We evaluate the proposed system using four real-world public transport data sets, presenting illustrative examples of explanations.
2023
Authors
Mikka Kisuule; Mike Brian Ndawula; Chenghong Gu; Ignacio Hernando-Gil;
Publication
Energies
Abstract
2023
Authors
Heymann, F; Parginos, K; Bessa, RJ; Galus, M;
Publication
ENERGY REPORTS
Abstract
Artificial intelligence (AI) brings great potential but also risks to the electricity industry. Following the EU's current regulatory proposal, the EU Regulation for Artificial Intelligence (AI Act), there will be direct, potentially adverse effects on companies of the electricity industry in Europe and beyond, as well as those active in the development of AI systems. In this paper, we develop a replicable framework for estimating compliance costs for different electricity market agents that will need to comply with the numerous requirements the AI Act imposes. The electricity systems of Austria, Greece and Switzerland are used as case-studies. We estimate annual, aggregated costs for electricity market agents ranging from less than one million to almost 200 million Euros per country, depending on compliance costs scenarios. Results suggest that a profit growth of 10% through AI utilization is needed to offset the highest added compliance cost of the AI Act on electricity market agents. Eventually, we further show how to assess the regional differences of these costs added to system operation, providing spatially disaggregated compliance costs estimates that consider the structural differences of the electricity industry within 26 Swiss cantons.
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