Abstract
This research proposes a novel methodology for adaptive learning in electricity markets negotiations, based on the principles of the determinism theory. The determinism theory states that all events are predetermined due to the cause-effect rule. At the same time, it is unmanageable to consider all causes to a certain effect, making it impossible to predict future events. However, in a controlled simulation environment, it is possible to access and analyze all involved variables; thus, making the application of this theory promising in such environments. This research applies the principles of the determinism theory to a new learning methodology, which optimizes players' actions, considering the predicted behavior of all involved players, with the objective of maximizing market gains. A case-based reasoning approach is used, providing adaptive context-aware decision support. Results show that the proposed approach is able to achieve better market results than all reference market strategies.

Abstract

Abstract
Energy consumption forecasting is crucial in current and future power and energy systems. With the increasing penetration of renewable energy sources, with high associated uncertainty due to the dependence on natural conditions (such as wind speed or solar intensity), the need to balance the fluctuation of generation with the flexibility from the consumer side increases considerably. In this way, significant work has been done on the development of energy consumption forecasting methods, able to deal with different forecasting circumstances, e.g., the prediction time horizon, the available data, the frequency of data, or even the quality of data measurements. The main conclusion is that different methods are more suitable for different prediction circumstances, and no method can outperform all others in all situations (no-free-lunch theorem). This paper proposes a novel application, developed in the scope of the SIMOCE project (ANI vertical bar P2020 17690), which brings together several of the most relevant forecasting methods in this domain, namely artificial neural networks, support vector machines, and several methods based on fuzzy rule-based systems, with the objective of providing decision support for energy consumption forecasting, regardless of the prediction conditions. For this, the application also includes several data management strategies that enable training of the forecasting methods depending on the available data. Results show that by this application, users are endowed with the means to automatically refine and train different forecasting methods for energy consumption prediction. These methods show different performance levels depending on the prediction conditions, hence, using the proposed approach, users always have access to the most adequate methods in each situation.

Abstract
Futures contracts are a valuable market option for electricity negotiating players, as they enable reducing the risk associated to the day-ahead market volatility. The price defined in these contracts is, however, itself subject to a degree of uncertainty; thereby turning price forecasting models into attractive assets for the involved players. This paper proposes a model for futures contracts price forecasting, using artificial neural networks. The proposed model is based on the results of a data analysis using the spearman rank correlation coefficient. From this analysis, the most relevant variables to be considered in the training process are identified. Results show that the proposed model for monthly average electricity price forecast is able to achieve very low forecasting errors.

Abstract
Electricity markets are complex and dynamic environments, mostly due to the large scale integration of renewable energy sources in the system. Negotiation in these markets is a significant challenge, especially when considering negotiations at the local level (e.g., between buildings and distributed energy resources). It is essential for a negotiator to be able to identify the negotiation profile of the players with whom he is negotiating. If a negotiator knows these profiles, it is possible to adapt the negotiation strategy and get better results in a negotiation. In order to identify and define such negotiation profiles, a clustering process is proposed in this paper. The clustering process is performed using the kml-k-means algorithm, in which several negotiation approaches are evaluated in order to identify and define players' negotiation profiles. A case study is presented, using as input data, information from proposals made during a set of negotiations. Results show that the proposed approach is able to identify players' negotiation profiles used in bilateral negotiations in electricity markets.

Abstract
Case-based reasoning enables solving new problems using past experience, by reusing solutions for past problems. The simplicity of this technique has made it very popular in several domains. However, the use of this type of approach to support decisions in the power and energy domain is still rather unexplored, especially regarding the flexibility of consumption in buildings in response to recent environmental concerns and consequent governmental policies that envisage the increase of energy efficiency. In order to determine the amount of consumption reduction that should be applied in a building, this article proposes a methodology that adapts the past results of similar cases in order to achieve a decision for the new case. A clustering methodology is used to identify the most similar previous cases, and an expert system is developed to refine the final solution after the combination of the similar cases results. The proposed CBR methodology is evaluated using a set of real data from a residential building. Results prove the advantages of the proposed methodology, demonstrating its applicability to enhance house energy management systems by determining the amount of reduction that should be applied in each moment, thus allowing such systems to carry out the reduction through the different loads of the building.