2025
Authors
Lessa S.S.; Lucas A.;
Publication
2025 IEEE Kiel Powertech Powertech 2025
Abstract
Accurately imputing missing data is critical in time series analysis. The present work compares Foundation Model Chronos against Linear Interpolation, K-Nearest Neighbor Imputer, and Gaussian Mixture Model Imputer with three types of missing data patterns: random, short sequential chunks, and a long sequential chunk. These results confirm that for random missing values, KNN and interpolation yield the highest performance, while Chronos outperforms these on sequences. Indeed, however, for longer sequences of missing values, Chronos starts suffering from cascading errors which eventually allow the simpler imputation methods to outrank it. Another test with limited quantities of training data showed different tradeoffs for the different methods. Unlike KNN and interpolation, which smooth out the gaps, Chronos generates variable synthetic data. This can be beneficial in tasks which require control or simulation. The results highlight the strengths and weaknesses of the imputers and, therefore, offer practical insights into trade-offs between computational complexities, accuracy, and suitability for time series imputation scenarios.
2025
Authors
Charan Dande, CS; Rakhshani, E; Gümrükcü, E; Gil, AA; Manuel, N; Carta, D; Lucas, A; Benigni, A; Monti, A;
Publication
2025 IEEE International Conference on Engineering, Technology, and Innovation (ICE/ITMC)
Abstract
2025
Authors
Cavalcante, L; Lucas, A; Villar, J; Martínez, SD;
Publication
2025 21ST INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON THE EUROPEAN ENERGY MARKET, EEM
Abstract
The rapid rise of Renewable Energy Communities (REC) offers unique opportunities for decentralizing and decarbonizing energy systems but also brings challenges in designing fair mechanisms for distributing the benefits of collective self-consumption. This paper evaluates three approaches for benefit-sharing based on the Shapley value, direct marginal contributions, and system marginal cost. A case study compares these methodologies in terms of practicality, fairness, and impact on financial returns. Additionally, this paper proves that settling local transactions using system marginal costs ensures that all REC participants incur equal or lower costs compared to operating independently.
2025
Authors
Sousa, J; Lucas, A; Villar, J;
Publication
2025 21ST INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON THE EUROPEAN ENERGY MARKET, EEM
Abstract
The business models (BM) for renewable energy communities (REC) are often based on their promoters being the sole or primary investors in energy assets, such as photovoltaic panels (PV) and battery energy storage systems (BESS), operating these assets centrally, and selling the locally produced energy to the REC members. This research addresses the computation of fixed local energy prices that the REC developer may apply under the optimal operation of the energy assets to maximize its revenues, while guaranteeing that all REC members benefit from belonging to the REC. We do this from two perspectives, depending on who operates the storage systems: i) maximizing the investor's benefits and ii) minimizing the REC cost by maximizing its self-consumption, ensuring maximization of the energy sold by the REC promoter/investor. The optimization framework includes energy production and demand balance constraints, peak load limitations, and constraints coming from the Portuguese regulatory framework. It also considers the opportunity costs of the members for buying the energy deficit from the grid or selling the energy surplus to the grid.
2024
Authors
Sousa, J; Lucas, A; Villar, J;
Publication
IET Conference Proceedings
Abstract
This research assesses the behaviour of alternative objectives related to maximising the energy self-consumed in renewable energy communities. Three different objective functions are proposed: minimising the grid-supplied energy to the community members, reducing the energy surplus of the community injected into the grid, and maximising the self-consumed energy according to its definition in the Portuguese regulation. Two additional objectives were also considered for comparison purposes, the maximisation of the equivalent CO2 emissions saved and the minimisation of the total community energy cost. The methodology involves formulating and implementing the optimisation problems and discussing the results with a case example, including decreased grid dependency, utilisation of battery storage, and differences in energy trading strategies within the REC. Overall, this research contributes to understanding some alternative objectives that could be considered for the management of the flexible resources of a REC. © The Institution of Engineering & Technology 2024.
2024
Authors
Lucas, A; Carvalhosa, S; Golmaryami, S;
Publication
2024 INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON SMART ENERGY SYSTEMS AND TECHNOLOGIES, SEST 2024
Abstract
This research presents an anomaly detection algorithm for a Vanadium Redox Flow Battery (VRFB) using battery dataset as an example. The algorithm determines the anomaly detection threshold by fitting a Gaussian mixed model (GMM) to an anomaly-free dataset and testing it against a dataset containing only anomalies. By forcing the test dataset to classify all observations as anomalies, the threshold can be found. Applying again the model to the training dataset, classifies 11% of normal observations as failures, indicating that, not all observations were captured by the GMM, resulting in false positives. A percentage based on the likelihood values is suggested for replication to other systems, and a ratio of anomaly detection over time is proposed for preventive maintenance alerts.
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