2020
Authors
MacEdo, P; Fidalgo, JN; Tome Saraiva, J;
Publication
International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM
Abstract
The expansion and development of the electricity distribution grid is a complex multicriteria decision problem. The planning definition should take into consideration the investment benefits on the security of supply, quality of service, losses, as well as in other network features. Given the variety of assets and their context-dependent effects, estimating their global impact is very challenging. An additional difficulty is the combination of different types of benefits into a simple and clear portrayal of the planning alternatives. This paper proposes a methodology to estimate the benefits of distribution investments, in terms of five features: security of supply, quality of service, network losses, operational efficiency and new services. The approach is based on the adoption of objective and measurable indicators for each feature. The approach was tested with real data of Portuguese distribution grids and the results support the adopted approach and are being used as a decision-aid tool for grid planning. © 2020 IEEE.
2021
Authors
Macedo, PM; Fidalgo, JN; Saraiva, JT;
Publication
2021 IEEE MADRID POWERTECH
Abstract
The financial planning of distribution systems usually includes the prediction of annual mandatory investments, concerning the resources that the DSO is compelled to allocate as a result of new network connections, required by new consumers or new energy producers. This paper presents a methodology to estimate the mandatory investments that the DSO should do in the distribution network. These estimations are based on historical data, load growth expectations and various socioeconomic indices. However, the available database contains very few annual investment examples (one aggregated value per year since 2002) compared to the large number of variables (potential inputs), which is a factor of regression overfitting. Thus, the applicable regression techniques are restrained to simple but efficient models. This paper describes a new methodology to identify the most suitable estimation models. The implemented application automatically builds, selects, and tests estimation models resulting from combinations of input variables. The final forecast is provided by a committee of models. Results obtained so far confirm the feasibility of the adopted methodology.
2022
Authors
Fidalgo, JN; Macedo, P;
Publication
APPLIED SCIENCES-BASEL
Abstract
Nontechnical losses in electricity distribution networks are often associated with a countries' socioeconomic situation. Although the amount of global losses is usually known, the separation between technical and commercial (nontechnical) losses will remain one of the main challenges for DSO until smart grids become fully implemented and operational. The most common origins of commercial losses are energy theft and deliberate or accidental failures of energy measuring equipment. In any case, the consequences can be regarded as consumption anomalies. The work described in this paper aims to answer a request from a DSO, for the development of tools to detect consumption anomalies at end-customer facilities (HV, MV and LV), invoking two types of assessment. The first consists of the identification of typical patterns in the set of consumption profiles of a given group or zone and the detection of atypical consumers (outliers) within it. The second assessment involves the exploration of the load diagram evolution of each specific consumer to detect changes in the consumption pattern that could represent situations of probable irregularities. After a representative period, typically 12 months, these assessments are repeated, and the results are compared to the initial ones. The eventual changes in the typical classes or consumption scales are used to build a classifier indicating the risk of anomaly.
2022
Authors
Fidalgo, JN; Paulos, JP; MacEdo, P;
Publication
International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM
Abstract
This article analyzes the effects of the current policy trends - high levels of distributed generation (DG) and grid load/capacity ratio - on network efficiency. It starts by illustrating the network losses performance under different DG and load/capacity conditions. The second part concerns the simulation of network investments with the purpose of loss reduction for diverse system circumstances, including the impact of DG levels, energy cost, and discount rate. The attained results showed that DG, particularly large parks, have a negative impact on network efficiency: network losses tend to intensify with DG growth, under the current regulation. Furthermore, network investments in loss reduction would have a small global impact on network efficiency if the DG parks' connection lines are not included in the grid concession (not subjected to upgrade). Finally, the study determines that it is preferable to invest sooner, rather than to postpone the grid reinforcement for certain conditions, namely for low discount rates. © 2022 IEEE.
2025
Authors
Branco, JPTS; Macedo, P; Fidalgo, JN;
Publication
2025 21ST INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON THE EUROPEAN ENERGY MARKET, EEM
Abstract
Ensuring reliable and high-quality electricity service is critical for consumers and Distribution System Operators (DSO). The DSO's Plan for Development and Investment in the Distribution Network (PDIDN) plays a pivotal role in enhancing network reliability and resilience while balancing technical and financial aspects. This study proposes a novel probabilistic approach for quality-of-service (QoS) estimation in distribution systems, addressing the limitations of traditional deterministic methods. Leveraging Bayesian regression, specifically the Spike and Slab technique, the model incorporates prior knowledge to improve the prediction of key QoS indicators such as SAIDI, SAIFI, and TIEPI. Using historical network data, the model demonstrates superior predictive accuracy and robustness, offering realistic confidence intervals for strategic planning. This method enables informed investments, enhances regulatory compliance, and supports renewable integration. The findings underline the potential of probabilistic modeling in advancing QoS forecasting, encouraging its application in other areas of electric network management.
2025
Authors
Rodrigues, L; Silva, R; Macedo, P; Faria, S; Cruz, F; Paulos, J; Mello, J; Soares, T; Villar, J;
Publication
2025 21ST INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON THE EUROPEAN ENERGY MARKET, EEM
Abstract
Planning Energy communities (ECs) requires engaging members, designing business models and governance rules, and sizing distributed energy resources (DERs) for a cost-effective investment. Meanwhile, the growing share of non-dispatchable renewable generation demands more flexible energy systems. Local flexibility markets (LFMs) are emerging as effective mechanisms to procure this flexibility, granting ECs a new revenue stream. Since sizing with flexibility becomes a highly complex problem, we propose a 2-stage methodology for estimating DERs size in an EC with collective self-consumption, flexibility provision and cross-sector (CS) assets such as thermal loads and electric vehicles (EVs). The first stage computes the optimal DER capacities to be installed for each member without flexibility provision. The second stage departs from the first stage capacities to assess how to modify the initial capacities to profit from providing flexibility. The impact of data clustering and flexibility provision are assessed through a case study.
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