Abstract
This paper presents an application of Monte Carlo chronological simulation to evaluate the reserve requirements of generating systems, considering renewable energy sources. The idea is to investigate the behavior of reliability indices, including those from the well-being analysis, when the major portion of the energy sources is renewable. Renewable in this work comprises hydroelectric, mini-hydroelectric, and wind power sources. Case studies on a configuration of the Portuguese Generating System are presented and discussed. Copyright (c) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Abstract
This paper describes a system for estimating load curves at low-voltage (LV) substations. The system is built by the aggregation of individual fuzzy inference systems of the Takagi-Sugeno type. The model was developed from actual measurements forming a base of raw data of consumer behavior. This database allowed one to build large test and,training sets of simulated LV substations, which led to the development of the fuzzy system. The results are compared in terms of accuracy with the ones obtained with a previous artificial neural network approach, with better performance.

Abstract
A major goal for managers of electric power networks is maximum asset performance. Minimal life cycle cost and maintenance optimization becomes crucial in reaching this goal, while meeting demands from customers and regulators. This necessitates the determination of the optimal balance between preventive and corrective maintenance in order to obtain the lowest total cost. The approach of this paper is to study the problem of balance between preventive and corrective maintenance as a multiobjective optimization problem, with customer interruptions on one hand and the maintenance budget of the network operator on the other. The problem is solved with meta-heuristics developed for the specific problem, in conjunction with an evolutionary particle swarm optimization algorithm. The maintenance optimization is applied in a case study to an urban distribution system in Stockholm, Sweden. Despite a general decreased level of maintenance (lower total maintenance cost), better network performance can be offered to the customers. This is achieved by focusing the preventive maintenance on components with a high potential for improvements. Besides this, this paper displays the value of introducing more maintenance alternatives for every component and choosing the right level of maintenance for the components with respect to network performance.

Abstract
This paper demonstrates that a classical stochastic optimization is, in many cases, not convenient for power system planning. Instead, a risk analysis approach is proposed. In a comparison of both planning paradigms, the probabilistic approach is in occasions not adequate, is half blind to compromise solutions and leads, in numerous, cases to riskier decisions. The technical discussion is illustrated with a distribution planning example.

Abstract

Abstract
The motivation for this work is the study and prediction of wind ramp events occurring in a large-scale wind farm located in the US Midwest. In this paper we introduce the SHRED framework, a stream-based model that continuously learns a discrete HMM model from wind power and wind speed measurements. We use a supervised learning algorithm to learn HMM parameters from discretized data, where ramp events are HMM states and discretized wind speed data are HMM observations. The discretization of the historical data is obtained by running the SAX algorithm over the first order variations in the original signal. SHRED updates the HMM using the most recent historical data and includes a forgetting mechanism to model natural time dependence in wind patterns. To forecast ramp events we use recent wind speed forecasts and the Viterbi algorithm, that incrementally finds the most probable ramp event to occur. We compare SHRED framework against Persistence baseline in predicting ramp events occurring in short-time horizons, ranging from 30 minutes to 90 minutes. SHRED consistently exhibits more accurate and cost-effective results than the baseline. © 2012 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.