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Publications

Publications by CPES

2010

Electricity market equilibrium based on conjectural variations

Authors
Diaz, CA; Villar, J; Alberto Campos, FA; Reneses, J;

Publication
ELECTRIC POWER SYSTEMS RESEARCH

Abstract
Many of the models used for the representation of the generation companies' behavior in oligopolistic electricity markets are based on conjectural variation equilibria, which are a generalization of the classic Cournot approach. However, one of the main drawbacks of these approaches is the complexity of assigning adequate values to the conjectures, which can dramatically affect the results obtained from these models. This paper reviews and analyses the main formulations of conjectural equilibria applied to electricity markets. The paper shows how these different formulations are equivalent, and presents the relationships among the conjectures they use. Finally, it presents a brief overview on the main methods to estimate or compute the conjectures of these types of models.

2010

MORSE: Tools for long-term strategic analysis of the Spanish electricity sector

Authors
Villar, J; Campos, FA; Díaz, CA; González, J; Diaz, A; Rodriguez, MA; Rodriguez, P;

Publication
2010 7th International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM 2010

Abstract
MORSE is a set of tools developed for the Spanish electrical utility Endesa, for long term simulation and strategic analysis of the Spanish electricity sector. MORSE has three different types of modules: forecasting modules, to model the main businesses of the sector, data preparation modules, to define the sector structure, to import data from other Endesa planning tools and to prepare it for the forecasting modules, and analysis and reports modules, to prepare simulation scenarios to be feed to the forecasting modules, execute them, and collect and organize their outputs in appropriate reports. The pool simulation model of the system, EQUITEC, is a Conjectured Supply Function Equilibrium, where generation companies are represented at a technology level, and conjectures are endogenously computed under hypothesis of local linearity near the equilibrium point. The inclusion in EQUITEC of network and zonal constraints is currently being analyzed. © 2010 IEEE.

2010

Solving Cournot equilibriums with variational inequalities algorithms

Authors
Campos, FA; Villar, J; Barquin, J;

Publication
IET GENERATION TRANSMISSION & DISTRIBUTION

Abstract
Over the past two decades, the fact that many games have been formulated as variational inequalities problems has led to relevant developments related with the existence and uniqueness of equilibriums, and with their calculation methodologies. Based on this approach, this study applies sufficient conditions for Cournot equilibriums existence and uniqueness, proving that while existence holds, uniqueness cannot be proved in general. To find one of the existent equilibriums, this study also proposes a novel variational inequalities algorithm which is globally convergent and easy to implement. It iteratively computes searching directions of the equilibrium by generating hyper-planes that separate the equilibrium from the intermediate solutions obtained relaxing the original Cournot game. Unlike other related algorithms, the proposed algorithm does not require Jacobian matrixes evaluation, and the iterative relaxed games can easily be solved using convex and quadratic optimisation models. Numerical results show the operation and convergence of the algorithm.

2010

Energy decomposition analysis of cis and trans isomers of 1,2-dihaloethylenes and 2-butene

Authors
Mourao, ZS; Melo, A;

Publication
JOURNAL OF MOLECULAR STRUCTURE-THEOCHEM

Abstract
Mayer's energy decomposition method was applied inthe study of the relative stability of cis and trans isomers of 1,2-disubstituted ethylenes, XHC=CHX (X = F, Cl, Br) and 2-butene. The trans to cis isomerization energy for each system was determined at the Hartree-Fock level, with several basis sets, and then divided into monoatomic and diatomic energy contributions. The results point to a different energy distribution for the dihaloethylenes, known for exhibiting a cis isomer that is more stable than the trans one, a behavior that is known as the cis effect, when compared to 2-butene. The main stabilizing effects of the cis isomer in the dihaloethylenes, at this level of theory, are energy terms associated with the interaction of the X substituents with the C atoms.

2009

State Estimation Based on Correntropy: A Proof of Concept

Authors
Miranda, V; Santos, A; Pereira, J;

Publication
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS

Abstract
This letter proposes a new concept applied to state estimation based on replacing traditional regression models by a criterion of maximizing error correntropy introducing a novel way to identify and correct large errors.

2009

Entropy and Correntropy Against Minimum Square Error in Offline and Online Three-Day Ahead Wind Power Forecasting

Authors
Bessa, RJ; Miranda, V; Gama, J;

Publication
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS

Abstract
This paper reports new results in adopting entropy concepts to the training of neural networks to perform wind power prediction as a function of wind characteristics (speed and direction) in wind parks connected to a power grid. Renyi's entropy is combined with a Parzen windows estimation of the error pdf to form the basis of two criteria (minimum entropy and maximum correntropy) under which neural networks are trained. The results are favorably compared in online and offline training with the traditional minimum square error (MSE) criterion. Real case examples for two distinct wind parks are presented.

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