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Publications

Publications by CPES

2025

Risk assessment of future power systems: Assuring resilience of electrification for decarbonization

Authors
Reiz, C; Gouveia, C; Bessa, RJ; Lopes, JP; Kezunovic, M;

Publication
SUSTAINABLE ENERGY GRIDS & NETWORKS

Abstract
Increased electrification of various critical infrastructures has been recognized as a key to achieving decarbonization targets worldwide. This creates a need to better understand the risks associated with future power systems and how such risks can be defined, assessed, and mitigated. This paper surveys prior work on power system risk assessment and management and explores the various approaches to risk definition, assessment, and mitigation. As a result, the paper proposes how future grid developments should be assessed in terms of risk causes, what methodology may be used to reduce the risk impacts, and how such approaches can increase grid resilience. While we attempt to generalize and classify various approaches to solving the problem of risk assessment and mitigation, we also provide examples of how specific approaches undertaken by the authors in the past may be expanded in the future to address the design and operation of the future electricity system to manage the risk more effectively. The importance of the metrics for risk assessment and methodology for quantification of risk reduction are illustrated through the examples. The paper ends with recommendations on addressing the risk and resilience of the electricity system in the future resilient implementation while achieving decarbonization goals through massive electrification.

2025

Carbon-aware dynamic tariff design for electric vehicle charging stations with explainable stochastic optimization

Authors
Silva, CAM; Bessa, RJ;

Publication
APPLIED ENERGY

Abstract
The electrification of the transport sector is a critical element in the transition to a low-emissions economy, driven by the widespread adoption of electric vehicles (EV) and the integration of renewable energy sources (RES). However, managing the increasing demand for EV charging infrastructure while meeting carbon emission reduction targets is a significant challenge for charging station operators. This work introduces a novel carbon-aware dynamic pricing framework for EV charging, formulated as a chance-constrained optimization problem to consider forecast uncertainties in RES generation, load, and grid carbon intensity. The model generates day-ahead dynamic tariffs for EV drivers with a certain elastic behavior while optimizing costs and complying with a carbon emissions budget. Different types of budgets for Scope 2 emissions (indirect emissions of purchased electricity consumed by a company) are conceptualized and demonstrate the advantages of a stochastic approach over deterministic models in managing emissions under forecast uncertainty, improving the reduction rate of emissions per feasible day of optimization by 24 %. Additionally, a surrogate machine learning model is proposed to approximate the outcomes of stochastic optimization, enabling the application of state-of-the-art explainability techniques to enhance understanding and communication of dynamic pricing decisions under forecast uncertainty. It was found that lower tariffs are explained, for instance, by periods of higher renewable energy availability and lower market prices and that the most important feature was the hour of the day.

2025

Budget-Constrained Collaborative Renewable Energy Forecasting Market

Authors
Gonçalves, C; Bessa, RJ; Teixeira, T; Vinagre, J;

Publication
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON SUSTAINABLE ENERGY

Abstract
Accurate power forecasting from renewable energy sources (RES) is crucial for integrating additional RES capacity into the power system and realizing sustainability goals. This work emphasizes the importance of integrating decentralized spatio-temporal data into forecasting models. However, decentralized data ownership presents a critical obstacle to the success of such spatio-temporal models, and incentive mechanisms to foster data-sharing need to be considered. The main contributions are a) a comparative analysis of the forecasting models, advocating for efficient and interpretable spline LASSO regression models, and b) a bidding mechanism within the data/analytics market to ensure fair compensation for data providers and enable both buyers and sellers to express their data price requirements. Furthermore, an incentive mechanism for time series forecasting is proposed, effectively incorporating price constraints and preventing redundant feature allocation. Results show significant accuracy improvements and potential monetary gains for data sellers. For wind power data, an average root mean squared error improvement of over 10% was achieved by comparing forecasts generated by the proposal with locally generated ones.

2025

Synthetic Data Generation for Wind Energy Forecasting: Comparison Between Statistical and Deep Learning Models

Authors
Klyagina O.; Xia W.; Andrade J.R.; Vergara P.P.; Bessa R.J.;

Publication
Conference Proceedings IEEE International Conference on Systems Man and Cybernetics

Abstract
This paper examines the effectiveness of various synthetic data generation methods for deterministic wind power forecasting. Specifically, this work evaluates four approaches - Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs), t-Copula, DoppelGANger, and FCPFlow - by comparing the forecasting performance, measured using Mean Absolute Error and Root Mean Squared Error, of models trained on synthetic versus real datasets. Our findings indicate that statistical methods (such as GMM and t-Copula) achieve notably better performance under limited data availability. However, the deep generative model FCPFlow yields superior results when sufficient training data is available. These findings suggest that the choice of synthetic data generation method should be informed by the specific data availability context.

2025

A Conceptual Framework for AI-based Decision Systems in Critical Infrastructures

Authors
Leyli-Abadi M.; Bessa R.J.; Viebahn J.; Boos D.; Borst C.; Castagna A.; Chavarriaga R.; Hassouna M.; Lemetayer B.; Leto G.; Marot A.; Meddeb M.; Meyer M.; Schiaffonati V.; Schneider M.; Waefler T.; Yagoubi M.;

Publication
Conference Proceedings IEEE International Conference on Systems Man and Cybernetics

Abstract
The interaction between humans and AI in safety-critical systems presents a unique set of challenges that remain partially addressed by existing frameworks. These challenges stem from the complex interplay of requirements for transparency, trust, and explainability, coupled with the necessity for robust and safe decision-making. A framework that holistically integrates human and AI capabilities while addressing these concerns is notably required, bridging the critical gaps in designing, deploying, and maintaining safe and effective systems. This paper proposes a holistic conceptual framework for critical infrastructures by adopting an interdisciplinary approach. It integrates traditionally distinct fields such as mathematics, decision theory, computer science, philosophy, psychology, and cognitive engineering and draws on specialized engineering domains, particularly energy, mobility, and aeronautics. Its flexibility is further demonstrated through a case study on power grid management.

2025

Power System Stability Mapping via Importance Sampling - A Case Study of the Madeira Grid

Authors
Cooke, C; Ferreira-Martinez, D; Soares, FJ; Moreira, CL;

Publication
2025 IEEE PES INNOVATIVE SMART GRID TECHNOLOGIES CONFERENCE EUROPE, ISGT EUROPE

Abstract
The increasing reliance of modern power systems on heterogeneous renewable energy and decreasing contribution of inertial thermal resources necessitates the availability of planning tools to ensure the continued operational stability of these systems. The abundance of historical data allows the estimation of behaviour during contingencies in common network configurations, but overlooks feasible but rare combinations of generation. Surveys of operation levels at regular intervals can ignore critical areas of operation without high resolution, which requires a significant computational overhead. This paper seeks to address the need for reliable dynamic security assessment to inform grid operator decisions on contingency planning. The aim is to demonstrate the creation of an off-line database that surveys the possible network operation configurations drawing on statistical historical analysis and efficient generic sampling. A high degree of accuracy is achieved in identifying energy mixes that can be expected to result in unstable operation during an unanticipated network outage through the implementation of importance sampling.

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