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Publications

Publications by CEGI

2025

Predicting demand for new products in fashion retailing using censored data

Authors
Sousa, MS; Loureiro, ALD; Miguéis, VL;

Publication
EXPERT SYSTEMS WITH APPLICATIONS

Abstract
In today's highly competitive fashion retail market, it is crucial to have accurate demand forecasting systems, namely for new products. Many experts have used machine learning techniques to forecast product sales. However, sales that do not happen due to lack of product availability are often ignored, resulting in censored demand and service levels that are lower than expected. Motivated by the relevance of this issue, we developed a two-stage approach to forecast the demand for new products in the fashion retail industry. In the first stage, we compared four methods of transforming historical sales into historical demand for products already commercialized. Three methods used sales-weighted averages to estimate demand on the days with stock-outs, while the fourth method employed an Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm to account for potential substitute products affected by stock-outs of preferred products. We then evaluated the performance of these methods and selected the most accurate one for calculating the primary demand for these historical products. In the second stage, we predicted the demand for the products of the following collection using Random Forest, Deep Neural Networks, and Support Vector Regression algorithms. In addition, we applied a model that consisted of weighting the demands previously calculated for the products of past collections that were most similar to the new products. We validated the proposed methodology using a European fashion retailer case study. The results revealed that the method using the Expectation-Maximization algorithm had the highest potential, followed by the Random Forest algorithm. We believe that this approach will lead to more assertive and better-aligned decisions in production management.

2025

Aligning priorities: A Comparative analysis of scientific and policy perspectives on municipal solid waste management

Authors
Rodrigues, M; Antunes, JA; Migueis, V;

Publication
WASTE MANAGEMENT

Abstract
Municipal solid waste (MSW) management has become a critical issue today, posing substantial economic, environmental, and social challenges. Identifying and analyzing dominant themes in this field is essential for advancing research and policies towards sustainable MSW management practices. This study aims to explore the key issues related to MSW management that have been addressed by both the scientific community and policymakers through funded projects. By doing so, the study seeks to guide the scientific community as a knowledge producer and the EU as a key funder. Two Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) models were applied to analyze the themes from two corpora: one representing scientific literature and another focusing on EU-funded projects. Additionally, this analysis was complemented by a quantitative estimation of the similarity between the two corpora, providing a measure of alignment between the scientific community and policymakers. The results generally indicate that the two spheres are aligned and highlight the diversity of topics explored by the scientific community. Nevertheless, it is concluded that there are opportunities for further research on specific topics, such as leaching and the extraction of heavy metals. Additionally, the popularity of topics identified in European Union-funded projects has fluctuated considerably over time, focusing primarily on waste management rather than its prevention. In light of these findings, waste prevention emerges as a promising avenue for future EU-funded research initiatives.

2025

Improving customer retention in taxi industry using travel data analytics: A churn prediction study

Authors
Loureiro, ALD; Miguéis, VL; Costa, Á; Ferreira, M;

Publication
Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services

Abstract
The retention of public transport users is widely acknowledged as a paramount challenge in the path towards the establishment of more sustainable cities and societies. In this setting, in which no contractual relationship with customers exists, an early and accurate prediction of whether a customer will remain with the company or leave, assumes great significance for businesses to develop effective retention strategies. This work focuses on this topic by identifying potential churners based on their past travel behavior. To achieve this, we developed a set of classification models using various machine learning techniques. These models were then employed as base learners within a stacking ensemble. All classifiers were developed with a profit-driven approach, optimizing for expected maximum profit. Finally, we calculated Shapley Additive Explanation values to enhance the interpretability of the proposed classifiers. The performance of the predictive models was evaluated using the data of taxi services recorded in a Portuguese city for 52 months. A broad range of predictors is proposed, including recency and frequency measures of taxi usage as well as others related to customers' satisfaction level. The predictive power of the models was also assessed for specific proportions of higher risk customers. All models have shown the capability to identify churners accurately. This study innovates in evaluating the one-to-one service provider company-customer relationship in the context of taxi industry. Retention actions to promote customers loyalty and enhance retention are also suggested. © 2025 The Author(s)

2025

MANAGER-JOB FIT ON INDIVIDUAL AND GROUP JOB PERFORMANCE

Authors
SAMUL, J; e CUNHA, JF;

Publication
Scientific Papers of Silesian University of Technology. Organization and Management Series

Abstract

2025

An innovative benefit-of-the-doubt approach for health system effectiveness: a global case study on amenable mortality

Authors
D'Inverno, G; Santos, JV; Camanho, AS;

Publication
INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS IN OPERATIONAL RESEARCH

Abstract
Health system performance assessment (HSPA) is essential for health planning and to improve population health. One of the HSPA domains is related to effectiveness, which can be represented considering different dimensions. Composite indicators can be used to summarize complex constructs involving several indicators. One example of such efforts is the Healthcare Access and Quality Index from the Global Burden of Diseases Study, in which different causes of mortality amenable to health care are summarized in this index through principal component analysis and exploratory factor analysis. While these approaches use the variance of the indicators, marginal improvement is not considered, that is, the distance to the best practice frontier. In this study we propose an innovative benefit-of-the-doubt approach to combine frontier analysis and composite indicators, using amenable mortality estimates for 188 countries. In particular, we include flexible aggregating weighting schemes and a robust and conditional approach. The dual formulation gives information on the peers and the potential mortality rate reduction targets considering the background conditions. In absolute terms, Andorra and high-income countries are the most effective regarding healthcare access and quality, while sub-Saharan African and South Asian countries are the least effective. North African and Middle Eastern countries benefit the most when epidemiological patterns, geographical proximity, and country development status are considered.

2025

Externally validated and clinically useful machine learning algorithms to support patient-related decision-making in oncology: a scoping review

Authors
Santos, CS; Amorim-Lopes, M;

Publication
BMC MEDICAL RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

Abstract
Background This scoping review systematically maps externally validated machine learning (ML)-based models in cancer patient care, quantifying their performance, and clinical utility, and examining relationships between models, cancer types, and clinical decisions. By synthesizing evidence, this study identifies, strengths, limitations, and areas requiring further research. Methods The review followed the Joanna Briggs Institute's methodology, Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews guidelines, and the Population, Concept, and Context mnemonic. Searches were conducted across Embase, IEEE Xplore, PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science (January 2014-September 2022), targeting English-language quantitative studies in Q1 journals (SciMago Journal and Country Ranking > 1) that used ML to evaluate clinical outcomes for human cancer patients with commonly available data. Eligible models required external validation, clinical utility assessment, and performance metric reporting. Studies involving genetics, synthetic patients, plants, or animals were excluded. Results were presented in tabular, graphical, and descriptive form. Results From 4023 deduplicated abstracts and 636 full-text reviews, 56 studies (2018-2022) met the inclusion criteria, covering diverse cancer types and applications. Convolutional neural networks were most prevalent, demonstrating high performance, followed by gradient- and decision tree-based algorithms. Other algorithms, though underrepresented, showed promise. Lung and digestive system cancers were most frequently studied, focusing on diagnosis and outcome predictions. Most studies were retrospective and multi-institutional, primarily using image-based data, followed by text-based and hybrid approaches. Clinical utility assessments involved 499 clinicians and 12 tools, indicating improved clinician performance with AI assistance and superior performance to standard clinical systems. Discussion Interest in ML-based clinical decision-making has grown in recent years alongside increased multi-institutional collaboration. However, small sample sizes likely impacted data quality and generalizability. Persistent challenges include limited international validation across ethnicities, inconsistent data sharing, disparities in validation metrics, and insufficient calibration reporting, hindering model comparison reliability.

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