2019
Authors
Nascimento, J; Pinto, T; Vale, Z;
Publication
DISTRIBUTED COMPUTING AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
Abstract
Futures contracts are a valuable market option for electricity negotiating players, as they enable reducing the risk associated to the day-ahead market volatility. The price defined in these contracts is, however, itself subject to a degree of uncertainty; thereby turning price forecasting models into attractive assets for the involved players. This paper proposes a model for futures contracts price forecasting, using artificial neural networks. The proposed model is based on the results of a data analysis using the spearman rank correlation coefficient. From this analysis, the most relevant variables to be considered in the training process are identified. Results show that the proposed model for monthly average electricity price forecast is able to achieve very low forecasting errors.
2019
Authors
Pinto, T; Santos, G; Vale, Z;
Publication
AAMAS '19: PROCEEDINGS OF THE 18TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON AUTONOMOUS AGENTS AND MULTIAGENT SYSTEMS
Abstract
Power and energy systems lack decision-support systems that enable studying big problems as a whole. The interoperability between multi-agent systems that address specific parts of the global problem is essential. Ontologies ease interoperability between heterogeneous systems providing semantic meaning to the information exchanged between the various parties. This paper presents the practical application of a society of multi agent systems, which uses ontologies to enable the interoperability between different types of agent-based simulators, directed to the simulation and operation of electricity markets, smart grids and residential energy management. Real data-based demonstration shows the proposed approach advantages in enabling comprehensive, autonomous and intelligent power system simulation studies.
2019
Authors
Pinto, T; Vale, Z;
Publication
AAMAS '19: PROCEEDINGS OF THE 18TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON AUTONOMOUS AGENTS AND MULTIAGENT SYSTEMS
Abstract
This work demonstrates a system that provides decision support to players in electricity market negotiations. This contribution is provided by ALBidS (Adaptive Learning strategic Bidding System), a decision support system that includes a large number of distinct market negotiation strategies, and learns which should be used in each context in order to provide the best expected response. The learning process on the best negotiation strategies to use at each moment is developed by means of several integrated reinforcement learning algorithms. ALBidS is integrated with MASCEM (Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets), which enables the simulation of realistic market scenarios using real data.
2019
Authors
Silva, F; Pinto, T; Vale, Z;
Publication
AAMAS '19: PROCEEDINGS OF THE 18TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON AUTONOMOUS AGENTS AND MULTIAGENT SYSTEMS
Abstract
This paper presents a new multi-agent decision support system with the purpose of aiding bilateral contract negotiators in the pre-negotiation phase, through the analysis of their possible opponents. The application area of this system is the electricity market, in which players trade a certain volume of energy at a specified price. Consequently, the main output of this system is the recommendation of the best opponent(s) to trade with and the target energy volume to trade with each of the opponents. These recommendations are achieved through the analysis of the possible opponents' past behavior, namely by learning on their past actions. The result is the forecasting of the expected prices against each opponent depending on the volume to trade. The expected prices are then used by a game-theory based model, to reach the final decision on the best opponents to negotiate with and the ideal target volume to be negotiated with each of them.
2019
Authors
Jozi, A; Pinto, T; Praca, I; Silva, F; Teixeira, B; Vale, Z;
Publication
ADCAIJ-ADVANCES IN DISTRIBUTED COMPUTING AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE JOURNAL
Abstract
This paper presents the application of a Methodology to Obtain Genetic fuzzy rule-based-systems Under the iterative rule Learning approach (MOGUL) to forecast energy consumption. Historical data referring to the energy consumption gathered from three groups, namely lights, HVAC and electrical socket, are used to train the proposed approach and achieve forecasting results for the future. The performance of the proposed method is compared to that of previous approaches, namely Hybrid Neural Fuzzy Interface System (HyFIS) and Wang and Mendel's Fuzzy Rule Learning Method (WM). Results show that the proposed methodology achieved smaller fore-casting errors for the following hours, with a smaller standard deviation. Thus, the proposed approach is able to achieve more reliable results than the other state of the art methodologies.
2019
Authors
Campos, J; Sharma, P; Albano, M; Jantunen, E; Baglee, D; Ferreira, LL;
Publication
2019 6TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON CONTROL, DECISION AND INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES (CODIT 2019)
Abstract
The emergence of new Information and Communication Technologies, such as the Internet of Things and big data and data analytics provides opportunities as well as challenges for the domain of interest, and this paper discusses their importance in condition monitoring and maintenance. In addition, the Open system architecture for condition-based maintenance (OSA-CBM), and the Predictive Health Monitoring methods are gone through. Thereafter, the paper uses bearing fault data from a simulation model with the aim to produce vibration signals where different parameters of the model can be controlled. In connection to the former mentioned a prototype was developed and tested for purposes of simulated rolling element bearing fault systems signals with appropriate fault diagnostic and analytics. The prototype was developed taking into consideration recommended standards (e.g., the OSA-CBM). In addition, the authors discuss the possibilities to incorporate the developed prototype into the Arrowhead framework, which would bring possibilities to: analyze various equipment geographically dispersed, especially in this case its rolling element bearing; support servitization of Predictive Health Monitoring methods and large-scale interoperability; and, to facilitate the appearance of novel actors in the area and thus competition.
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