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Publicações

Publicações por Maria Eduarda Silva

2024

Predicting macroeconomic indicators from online activity data: A review

Autores
Costa, EA; Silva, ME;

Publicação
Statistical Journal of the IAOS

Abstract
Predictors of macroeconomic indicators rely primarily on traditional data sourced from National Statistical Offices. However, new data sources made available from recent technological advancements, namely data from online activities, have the potential to bring about fresh perspectives on monitoring economic activities and enhance the accuracy of forecasting. This paper reviews the literature on predicting macroeconomic indicators, such as the gross domestic product, unemployment rate, consumer price index or private consumption, based on online activity data sourced from Google Trends, Twitter (rebranded to X) and mobile devices. Based on a systematic search of publications indexed on the Web of Science and Scopus databases, the analysis of a final set of 56 publications covers the publication history of the data sources, the methods used to model the data and the predictive accuracy of information from such data sources. The paper also discusses the limitations and challenges of using online activity data for macroeconomic predictions. The review concludes that online activity data can be a valuable source of information for predicting macroeconomic indicators. However, one must consider certain limitations and challenges to improve the models' accuracy and reliability. © 2024 - IOS Press. All rights reserved.

2022

Statistical education and official statistics - training future data scientists

Autores
Silva, ME; Campos, P;

Publicação
Proceedings of the IASE 2021 Satellite Conference

Abstract
EMOS (The European Master in Official Statistics) was set up to strengthen the collaboration within academia and producers of official statistics and help develop professionals able to work with European official data at different levels in the fast-changing production system of the 21st century. In this paper we address the need for training in Official Statistics, particularly in current times, where new skill sets and competencies are necessary. In particular, the needs for new data sources currently used by national statistical systems require the development of new methodologies. For that purpose, we do a matching between National Statistical Offices (NSO) needs and the offer from universities.

2025

Multilayer quantile graph for multivariate time series analysis and dimensionality reduction

Autores
Silva, VF; Silva, ME; Ribeiro, P; Silva, F;

Publicação
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DATA SCIENCE AND ANALYTICS

Abstract
In recent years, there has been a surge in the prevalence of high- and multidimensional temporal data across various scientific disciplines. These datasets are characterized by their vast size and challenging potential for analysis. Such data typically exhibit serial and cross-dependency and possess high dimensionality, thereby introducing additional complexities to conventional time series analysis methods. To address these challenges, a recent and complementary approach has emerged, known as network-based analysis methods for multivariate time series. In univariate settings, quantile graphs have been employed to capture temporal transition properties and reduce data dimensionality by mapping observations to a smaller set of sample quantiles. To confront the increasingly prominent issue of high dimensionality, we propose an extension of quantile graphs into a multivariate variant, which we term Multilayer Quantile Graphs. In this innovative mapping, each time series is transformed into a quantile graph, and inter-layer connections are established to link contemporaneous quantiles of pairwise series. This enables the analysis of dynamic transitions across multiple dimensions. In this study, we demonstrate the effectiveness of this new mapping using synthetic and benchmark multivariate time series datasets. We delve into the resulting network's topological structures, extract network features, and employ these features for original dataset analysis. Furthermore, we compare our results with a recent method from the literature. The resulting multilayer network offers a significant reduction in the dimensionality of the original data while capturing serial and cross-dimensional transitions. This approach facilitates the characterization and analysis of large multivariate time series datasets through network analysis techniques.

2006

Asymptotic distribution of the Yule-Walker estimator for INAR(p) processes

Autores
Silva, I; Silva, ME;

Publicação
STATISTICS & PROBABILITY LETTERS

Abstract
The INteger-valued AutoRegressive (INAR) processes were introduced in the literature by Al-Osh and Alzaid [1987. First-order integer-valued autoregressive (INAR(l)) process. J. Time Ser. Anal. 8, 261-275] and McKenzie [1988. Some ARMA models for dependent sequences of Poisson counts. Adv. Appl. Probab. 20, 822-835] for modelling correlated series of counts. These processes have been considered as the discrete counter part of AR processes, but their highly nonlinear characteristics lead to some statistically challenging problems, namely in parameter estimation. Several estimation procedures have been proposed in the literature, mainly for processes of first order. For some of these estimators the asymptotic properties as well as finite sample properties have been obtained and studied. This paper considers Yule-Walker parameter estimation for the pth-order integer-valued autoregressive, INAR(p), process. In particular, the asymptotic distribution of the Yule-Walker estimator is obtained and it is shown that this estimator is asymptotically normally distributed, unbiased and consistent.

2010

Innovational Outliers in INAR(1) Models

Autores
Barczy, M; Ispany, M; Pap, G; Scotto, M; Silva, ME;

Publicação
COMMUNICATIONS IN STATISTICS-THEORY AND METHODS

Abstract
We consider integer-valued autoregressive models of order one contaminated with innovational outliers. Assuming that the time points of the outliers are known but their sizes are unknown, we prove that Conditional Least Squares (CLS) estimators of the offspring and innovation means are strongly consistent. In contrast, CLS estimators of the outliers' sizes are not strongly consistent. We also prove that the joint CLS estimator of the offspring and innovation means is asymptotically normal. Conditionally on the values of the process at time points preceding the outliers' occurrences, the joint CLS estimator of the sizes of the outliers is asymptotically normal.

2012

Additive outliers in INAR(1) models

Autores
Barczy, M; Ispany, M; Pap, G; Scotto, M; Silva, ME;

Publicação
STATISTICAL PAPERS

Abstract
In this paper the integer-valued autoregressive model of order one, contaminated with additive outliers is studied in some detail. Moreover, parameter estimation is also addressed. Supposing that the timepoints of the outliers are known but their sizes are unknown, we prove that the conditional least squares (CLS) estimators of the offspring and innovation means are strongly consistent. In contrast, however, the CLS estimators of the outliers' sizes are not strongly consistent, although they converge to a random limit with probability 1. We also prove that the joint CLS estimator of the offspring and innovation means is asymptotically normal. Conditionally on the values of the process at the timepoints neighboring to the outliers' occurrences, the joint CLS estimator of the sizes of the outliers is also asymptotically normal.

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