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Publicações

Publicações por Maria Eduarda Silva

2022

Censored Multivariate Linear Regression Model

Autores
Sousa, R; Pereira, I; Silva, ME;

Publicação
RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN STATISTICS AND DATA SCIENCE, SPE2021

Abstract
Often, real-life problems require modelling several response variables together. This work analyses a multivariate linear regression model when the data are censored. Censoring distorts the correlation structure of the underlying variables and increases the bias of the usual estimators. Thus, we propose three methods to deal with multivariate data under left censoring, namely Expectation Maximization (EM), DataAugmentation (DA) and Gibbs Sampler with Data Augmentation (GDA). Results from a simulation study showthat both DA and GDA estimates are consistent for low and moderate correlation. Under high correlation scenarios, EM estimates present a lower bias.

2022

On-line atracurium dose prediction: a nonparametric approach

Autores
Rocha, C; Mendonça, T; Silva, ME;

Publicação
IEEE Conference on Control Technology and Applications, CCTA 2022, Trieste, Italy, August 23-25, 2022

Abstract
This paper aims at contributing to personalize anesthetic drug administration during surgery. This study devel-ops an online robust model to predict the maintenance dose of atracurium necessary for the resulting effect, i.e. neuromuscular blockade, to attain a target profile. The model is based on the patient's neuromuscular blockade (NMB) response to the initial bolus only, overcoming the need for information on the patient's weight, age, height and Lean Body Mass usually associated to pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models. To achieve this, a statistical analysis of the response of the patient to the initial bolus is carried out and a set of variables is established as predictors of the maintenance dose. The prediction is accomplished using Classification and Regression Trees, CART, which is a supervised learning method. Simulated data from a stochastic model for the NMB induced by atracurium is used as training set. All the 5000 doses predicted by the model lead to NMB level between 5% and 10%, which supports the proposed predictive model since it is clinically required that the steady state NMB level lies between this two values. The methodology is applied both to simulated and to clinical data sets and is found appropriate for online dose prediction.

2025

Bayesian Modelling of Time Series of Counts with Missing Data

Autores
Silva, I; Silva, ME; Pereira, I;

Publicação
Springer Proceedings in Mathematics and Statistics

Abstract
The presence of missing data poses a common challenge for time series analysis in general since the most usual requirement is that the data is equally spaced in time and therefore imputation methods are required. For time series of counts, the usual imputation methods which usually produce real valued observations, are not adequate. This work employs Bayesian principles for handling missing data within time series of counts, based on first-order integer-valued autoregressive (INAR) models, namely Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) and Gibbs sampler with Data Augmentation (GDA) algorithms. The methodologies are illustrated with synthetic and real data and the results indicate that the estimates are consistent and present less bias when the percentage of missing observations decreases, as expected. © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2025.

2024

Characterisation of Dansgaard-Oeschger events in palaeoclimate time series using the matrix profile method

Autores
Barbosa, S; Silva, ME; Rousseau, DD;

Publicação
NONLINEAR PROCESSES IN GEOPHYSICS

Abstract
Palaeoclimate time series, reflecting the state of Earth's climate in the distant past, occasionally display very large and rapid shifts showing abrupt climate variability. The identification and characterisation of these abrupt transitions in palaeoclimate records is of particular interest as this allows for understanding of millennial climate variability and the identification of potential tipping points in the context of current climate change. Methods that are able to characterise these events in an objective and automatic way, in a single time series, or across two proxy records are therefore of particular interest. In our study the matrix profile approach is used to describe Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events, abrupt warmings detected in the Greenland ice core, and Northern Hemisphere marine and continental records. The results indicate that canonical events DO-19 and DO-20, occurring at around 72 and 76 ka, are the most similar events over the past 110 000 years. These transitions are characterised by matching transitions corresponding to events DO-1, DO-8, and DO-12. They are abrupt, resulting in a rapid shift to warmer conditions, followed by a gradual return to cold conditions. The joint analysis of the delta 18O and Ca2+ time series indicates that the transition corresponding to the DO-19 event is the most similar event across the two time series.

2024

Implications of seasonal and daily variation on methane and ammonia emissions from naturally ventilated dairy cattle barns in a Mediterranean climate: A two-year study

Autores
Rodrigues, ARF; Silva, ME; Silva, VF; Maia, MRG; Cabrita, ARJ; Trindade, H; Fonseca, AJM; Pereira, JLS;

Publicação
SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT

Abstract
Seasonal and daily variations of gaseous emissions from naturally ventilated dairy cattle barns are important figures for the establishment of effective and specific mitigation plans. The present study aimed to measure methane (CH4) and ammonia (NH3) emissions in three naturally ventilated dairy cattle barns covering the four seasons for two consecutive years. In each barn, air samples from five indoor locations were drawn by a multipoint sampler to a photoacoustic infrared multigas monitor, along with temperature and relative humidity. Milk production data were also recorded. Results showed seasonal differences for CH4 and NH3 emissions in the three barns with no clear trends within years. Globally, diel CH4 emissions increased in the daytime with high intra-hour variability. The average hourly CH4 emissions (g h-1 livestock unit- 1 (LU)) varied from 8.1 to 11.2 and 6.2 to 20.3 in the dairy barn 1, from 10.1 to 31.4 and 10.9 to 22.8 in the dairy barn 2, and from 1.5 to 8.2 and 13.1 to 22.1 in the dairy barn 3, respectively, in years 1 and 2. Diel NH3 emissions highly varied within hours and increased in the daytime. The average hourly NH3 emissions (g h-1 LU-1) varied from 0.78 to 1.56 and 0.50 to 1.38 in the dairy barn 1, from 1.04 to 3.40 and 0.93 to 1.98 in the dairy barn 2, and from 0.66 to 1.32 and 1.67 to 1.73 in the dairy barn 3, respectively, in years 1 and 2. Moreover, the emission factors of CH4 and NH3 were 309.5 and 30.6 (g day- 1 LU-1), respectively, for naturally ventilated dairy cattle barns. Overall, this study provided a detailed characterization of seasonal and daily gaseous emissions variations highlighting the need for future longitudinal emission studies and identifying an opportunity to better adequate the existing mitigation strategies according to season and daytime.

2024

Real-time nowcasting the monthly unemployment rates with daily Google Trends data

Autores
Costa, EA; Silva, ME; Galvao, Ana Beatriz;

Publicação
SOCIO-ECONOMIC PLANNING SCIENCES

Abstract
Policymakers often have to make decisions based on incomplete economic data because of the usual delay in publishing official statistics. To circumvent this issue, researchers use data from Google Trends (GT) as an early indicator of economic performance. Such data have emerged in the literature as alternative and complementary predictors of macroeconomic outcomes, such as the unemployment rate, featuring readiness, public availability and no costs. This study deals with extensive daily GT data to develop a framework to nowcast monthly unemployment rates tailored to work with real-time data availability, resorting to Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) regressions. Portugal is chosen as a use case for the methodology since extracting GT data requires the selection of culturally dependent keywords. The nowcasting period spans 2019 to 2021, encompassing the time frame in which the coronavirus pandemic initiated. The findings indicate that using daily GT data with MIDAS provides timely and accurate insights into the unemployment rate, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic, showing accuracy gains even when compared to nowcasts obtained from typical monthly GT data via traditional ARMAX models.

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