2016
Autores
João Tomé Saraiva; Guido Pires; João Filipe Nunes; José Nuno Fidalgo; Rui Barbosa Pinto;
Publicação
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to present the main results of the ongoing analysis of applying dynamic network access tariffs in Portugal. For the 2015-2017 regulatory period, the Portuguese National Regulatory Authority, ERSE, required the three main Portuguese DSOs to submit, until the end of June 2016, plans for the implementation of network dynamic tariff schemes targeting Medium, High and Extra High Voltage customers, as well as the respective cost-benefit analysis. EDP Distribuição, the main Portuguese DSO, is preparing a report regarding the implementation of pilot projects on a sample of these segments of customers, which are due to be on the field during 2017. These pilots should help electrical energy stakeholders understand how the Electric System can benefit from the use of dynamic tariffs focused on networks, allowing for the quantification of benefits in a more accurate way. The level of demand response that results from price signals is a key issue that both the regulator and EDP Distribuição will quantify. Other important issue to assess in this study is the efficiency of cost recovery under a dynamic tariff scheme. In conclusion, this paper will present some results obtained from the cost-benefit analysis regarding the implementation of a Critical Peak Pricing scheme, as well as the key learnings supporting the introduction of dynamic schemes in the future, not only for EHV, HV and MV customers but also eventually extending it to LV ones.
2024
Autores
Macedo, P; Fidalgo, JN;
Publicação
2024 20TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON THE EUROPEAN ENERGY MARKET, EEM 2024
Abstract
This article presents a methodology to estimate the evolution of QoS indices, based on investments and maintenance costs carried out in the DN. The indices were estimated at various disaggregated levels, including the global index, 3 different QoS zones (urban, semi-urban and rural) and 278 municipalities, thereby facilitating the mitigation of QoS asymmetries by allocating investments and maintenance actions to specific regions. To achieve this objective, an optimization problem was formulated to allocate investments and maintenance costs to municipalities with higher improvement benefit-cost ratios, potentially exhibiting lower levels of QoS. This methodology was adopted by the Portuguese DSO to establish the future investments plan from 2023 to 2027. The results demonstrate estimations of good performance, considering the stochastic nature of the phenomena affecting QoS (e.g. atmospheric conditions), which are included in this study, thus developing confidence levels for the global indices.
2024
Autores
Castro L.F.C.; Carvalho P.C.M.; Saraiva J.P.T.; Fidalgo J.N.;
Publicação
International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy
Abstract
Motivated by initiatives such as the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDG), particularly SDG 1-Poverty Eradication and SDG 7-Clean and Accessible Energy, the search for solutions aiming to mitigate poverty has been recurrent in several studies. This paper main objective is to evaluate the dynamics of global research on the use of photovoltaic projects for poverty alleviation (PVPA) from 2003 to 2022. We use a bibliometric analysis to identify publication patterns and consequently list research trends and gaps of the area. A total of 336 publications from Scopus database are identified and complemented by a state-of-the-art study, where the articles are investigated and classified according to: Business model and financing and evaluation of PVPA results. The results show that PA is often associated with PV power and its application in rural areas. “Biomass” and “application in developing countries” have become a trend. Urban areas application, aiming to reduce poverty, and the need for a synergetic integration of energy and urban planning, to mitigate the risks associated with energy flow and efficiency, are the most relevant gaps identified. Most of the publications focus on macropolicies effects involving PV technology; papers on projects construction and ex-post are not identified.
2023
Autores
Fidalgo, JN; Macedo, PM; Rocha, HFR;
Publicação
2023 19TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON THE EUROPEAN ENERGY MARKET, EEM
Abstract
A common problem in distribution planning is the scarcity of historic data (training examples) relative to the number of variables, meaning that most data-driven techniques cannot be applied in such situations, due to the risk of overfitting. Thus, the suitable regression techniques are restrained to efficient models, preferably with embedded regularization features. This article compares three of these techniques: LASSO, Bayesian and CMLR (Conditioned multi-linear regression - a new approach developed within the scope of a project with a distribution company). The results showed that each technique has its own advantages and limitations. The Bayesian regression has the main advantage of providing inherent confidence intervals. The LASSO is a very economic and efficient regression tool. The CMLR is versatile and provided the best performance.A common problem in distribution planning is the scarcity of historic data (training examples) relative to the number of variables, meaning that most data-driven techniques cannot be applied in such situations, due to the risk of overfitting. Thus, the suitable regression techniques are restrained to efficient models, preferably with embedded regularization features. This article compares three of these techniques: LASSO, Bayesian and CMLR (Conditioned multi-linear regression - a new approach developed within the scope of a project with a distribution company). The results showed that each technique has its own advantages and limitations. The Bayesian regression has the main advantage of providing inherent confidence intervals. The LASSO is a very economic and efficient regression tool. The CMLR is versatile and provided the best performance.
2023
Autores
Silva, AR; Fidalgo, JN; Andrade, JR;
Publicação
2023 19TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON THE EUROPEAN ENERGY MARKET, EEM
Abstract
This paper explores the application of Deep Learning techniques to forecast electricity market prices. Three Deep Learning (DL) techniques are tested: Dense Neural Networks (DNN), Long Short-Term Memory Networks (LSTM) and Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN); and two non-DL techniques: Multiple Linear Regression and Gradient Boosting (GB). First, this work compares the forecast skill of all techniques for electricity price forecasting. The results analysis showed that CNN consistently remained among the best performers when predicting the most unusual periods such as the Covid19 pandemic one. The second study evaluates the potential application of CNN for automatic feature extraction over a dataset composed by multiple explanatory variables of different types, overcoming part of the feature selection challenges. The results showed that CNNs can be used to reduce the need for a variable selection phase.
2011
Autores
Silva, S; Fidalgo, JN; Fontes, DBMM;
Publicação
OPERATIONAL RESEARCH
Abstract
Energy policies in the European Union (EU) and its 27 member states respond to three main concerns namely energy security, economic development, and environmental sustainability. All the three "Es'' are pursued simultaneously with some slight differences in emphasizing the mutual importance of these, in particular the cost factors. The legislation of the EU (e. g., ETS-Emission Trading Scheme, directives) increasingly guides the member states' energy policies. However, energy policy directions are still made domestically, for example, on the support on renewable energy technologies. In this work, we look into distributed generation (DG), since it has been grown considerable in the past few years and can be used to partially fulfill renewable energy targets. The policy makers have to make decisions about regulation directives, more specifically they have to change the current regulation in order to incentive the increase in DG. However, these decisions have not only economic impacts but also technical impacts that must be accounted for. In this regard, a decision aid tool would help the policy makers in estimating producer economic impacts, as well as power network technical impacts, of various possible regulation directives. Here, we propose an interactive decision aid tool that models the aforementioned impacts and thus, can be used by policy makers to experiment with different regulation directives before deciding on the ones to set.
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