2008
Autores
Campos, FA; Villar, J; Barquin, J; Ruiperez, J;
Publicação
ENGINEERING OPTIMIZATION
Abstract
Game theory has traditionally used real-valued utility functions in decision-making problems. However, the real information available to assess these utility functions is normally uncertain, suggesting the use of uncertainty distributions for a more realistic modelling. In this sense, utilities results or pay-offs have been normally modelled with probability distributions, assuming random uncertainty. However, when statistical information is unavailable, probability may not be the most adequate paradigm, and can lead to very large execution times when some real complex problems are addressed. In this article possibility distributions are used to model the uncertainty of utility functions when the strategies are probability distributions (mixed strategies) over a set of original and discrete strategies (pure strategies). Two dual approaches to solve the resulting non-cooperative fuzzy games are proposed: modelling players' risk aversion, and thus providing realistic conservative strategies. Two examples show the robustness of the strategies obtained with the proposed approaches.
2008
Autores
Campos, FA; Villar, J; Barquin, J; Reneses, J;
Publicação
IET GENERATION TRANSMISSION & DISTRIBUTION
Abstract
It is widely known and accepted that Nash equilibrium suitably models agents' behavior in electricity markets, since it is coherent with the common sense of their simultaneous profits maximisation. In the literature, these approaches are usually addressed using deterministic representations, despite the fact that electricity markets are highly conditioned by the uncertainty in demand or in agents' bidding strategies. Only some equilibrium-modelling approaches under uncertainty can be found in the literature, most of them using probability distributions. However, probability approaches may lead to very complex formulations and generally require restrictive assumptions (such as normality or independence) that can hardly be verified in real complex problems. A conjectured-price-response equilibrium model that uses LR-possibility distributions to represent the uncertainty of the residual demand curves faced by the participant agents is proposed. Modelling the risk-aversion attitudes of the agents, the resulting possibilistic equilibrium is transformed into a simplified deterministic one, which is solved with a new globally convergent algorithm for variational inequalities problems. Some interesting results for a real-size electricity system show the robustness of this new approach when compared with other risk-neutral approaches.
2008
Autores
Oliveira, F; Madureira, A; Donsión, MP;
Publicação
Renewable Energy and Power Quality Journal
Abstract
Most of the Power Quality surveys in industrialized countries are performed according to the parameters defined in the EN50160 standard, which sets one-week measurement periods with ten-minute sampling time for most power quality disturbances such as flicker and harmonics. Both the sampling periods and the measurement period have a great influence on the significance of the values obtained as well as on the conclusions taken. In this paper, an attempt is made to compare the values obtained with different sample frequencies and time windows, working on instantaneous flicker (Ifl) values for a wind turbine over three weeks.
2007
Autores
Fidalgo, JN; Matos, MA;
Publicação
Artificial Neural Networks - ICANN 2007, Pt 2, Proceedings
Abstract
This paper describes a research where the main goal was to predict the future values of a time series of the hourly demand of Portugal global electricity consumption in the following day. In a preliminary phase several regression techniques were experimented: K Nearest Neighbors, Multiple Linear Regression, Projection Pursuit Regression, Regression Trees, Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). Having the best results been achieved with ANN, this technique was selected as the primary tool for the load forecasting process. The prediction for holidays and days following holidays is analyzed and dealt with. Temperature significance on consumption level is also studied. Results attained support the adopted approach.
2007
Autores
Fidalgo, JN; Torres, JAFM; Matos, M;
Publicação
2007 INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS APPLICATIONS TO POWER SYSTEMS, VOLS 1 AND 2
Abstract
In a competitive energy market environment, the procedure for fair loss allocation constitutes a matter of considerable importance. This task is often based on rough principles, given the difficulties on the practical implementation of a fairest process. This paper proposes a methodology based on neural networks for the distribution of power distribution losses among the loads. The process is based on the knowledge of load profiles and on the usual consumption measures. Simulations ere carried out for a typical MV network, with an extensive variety of load scenarios. For each scenario, losses were calculated and distributed by the consumers. The allocation criterion is established assuming a distribution proportional to the squared power. Finally, a neural network is trained in order to obtain a fast and accurate losses allocation. Illustrative results support the feasibility of the proposed methodology.
2007
Autores
Keko, H; Jaramillo Duque, A; Miranda, V;
Publicação
2007 International Conference on Intelligent Systems Applications to Power Systems, ISAP
Abstract
Evolutionary Particle Swarm Optimization (EPSO) is a robust optimization algorithm belonging to evolutionary methods. EPSO borrows the movement rules from Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and uses it as a recombination operator that evolves under selection. This paper presents a reactive power planning approach taking advantage of EPSO robustness, in a model that considers simultaneously multiple contingencies and multiple load levels. Results for selected problems are summarized including a trade-off analysis of results.
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