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Publicações

Publicações por CPES

2024

Decision Aid Tool to Mitigate Quality of Service Asymmetries in Distribution Networks

Autores
Macedo, P; Fidalgo, JN;

Publicação
2024 20TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON THE EUROPEAN ENERGY MARKET, EEM 2024

Abstract
This article presents a methodology to estimate the evolution of QoS indices, based on investments and maintenance costs carried out in the DN. The indices were estimated at various disaggregated levels, including the global index, 3 different QoS zones (urban, semi-urban and rural) and 278 municipalities, thereby facilitating the mitigation of QoS asymmetries by allocating investments and maintenance actions to specific regions. To achieve this objective, an optimization problem was formulated to allocate investments and maintenance costs to municipalities with higher improvement benefit-cost ratios, potentially exhibiting lower levels of QoS. This methodology was adopted by the Portuguese DSO to establish the future investments plan from 2023 to 2027. The results demonstrate estimations of good performance, considering the stochastic nature of the phenomena affecting QoS (e.g. atmospheric conditions), which are included in this study, thus developing confidence levels for the global indices.

2024

Photovoltaic Projects for Multidimensional Poverty Alleviation: Bibliometric Analysis and State of the Art

Autores
Castro L.F.C.; Carvalho P.C.M.; Saraiva J.P.T.; Fidalgo J.N.;

Publicação
International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy

Abstract
Motivated by initiatives such as the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDG), particularly SDG 1-Poverty Eradication and SDG 7-Clean and Accessible Energy, the search for solutions aiming to mitigate poverty has been recurrent in several studies. This paper main objective is to evaluate the dynamics of global research on the use of photovoltaic projects for poverty alleviation (PVPA) from 2003 to 2022. We use a bibliometric analysis to identify publication patterns and consequently list research trends and gaps of the area. A total of 336 publications from Scopus database are identified and complemented by a state-of-the-art study, where the articles are investigated and classified according to: Business model and financing and evaluation of PVPA results. The results show that PA is often associated with PV power and its application in rural areas. “Biomass” and “application in developing countries” have become a trend. Urban areas application, aiming to reduce poverty, and the need for a synergetic integration of energy and urban planning, to mitigate the risks associated with energy flow and efficiency, are the most relevant gaps identified. Most of the publications focus on macropolicies effects involving PV technology; papers on projects construction and ex-post are not identified.

2024

An Agent Based Model applied to a Local Energy Market (LEM) Considering Demand Response (DR) and Its Interaction with the Wholesale Market (WSM)

Autores
dos Santos, AF; Saraiva, JT;

Publicação
2024 20TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON THE EUROPEAN ENERGY MARKET, EEM 2024

Abstract
The expected development and massification of Local Energy Markets (LEM), in particular the ones associated with Renewable Energy Communities, poses new challenges, and requires new operations strategies to their promoters, aggregators, and end-consumers. One of the mechanisms that can be used to speed up the spreading of this kind of market is the use of Demand Response (DR) programs since they can be designed to increase the community's savings and profits. In this framework, the end customers are induced to change their normal consumption patterns by temporarily reducing and/or shifting their electricity consumption away from periods with low local generation in response to a signal from a service provider, i.e., aggregator. To this purpose, this paper presents an Agent Based Model (ABM) using the Q-Learning mechanism to implement and to simulate a LEM and its interaction with the Wholesale Market (WSM), using also and incentive-based DR program. The overall objective of this design is to decrease average energy costs by moving the demand to periods of large availability of wind or solar resources or to store energy for future use. The developed model was tested considering real data regarding energy consumption and PV generation. The proposed paper describes and discusses the obtained market strategy and the profits that can be obtained with this approach.

2024

Predicting Hydro Reservoir Inflows with AI Techniques Using Radar Data and a Numerical Weather Prediction Model

Autores
Almeida, MF; Soares, FJ; Oliveira, FT; Saraiva, JT; Pereira, RM;

Publicação
IEEE 15TH INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM ON POWER ELECTRONICS FOR DISTRIBUTED GENERATION SYSTEMS, PEDG 2024

Abstract
Reducing the gap between renewable energy needs and supply is crucial to achieve sustainable growth. Hydroelectric power production predictions in several Madeira Island catchment regions are shown in this article using Long Short-Term Memory, LSTM, networks. In order to foresee hydro reservoirs inflows, our models take into account the island's dynamic precipitation and flow rates and simplify the process of water moving from the cloud to the turbine. The model developed for the Socorridos Faja Rodrigues system demonstrates the proficiency of LSTMs in capturing the unexpected flow behavior through its low RMSE. When it comes to energy planning, the model built for the CTIII Paul Velho system gives useful information despite its lower accuracy when it comes to anticipating problems.

2024

Analysis of the Portuguese and Spanish NECPs using the CEVESA MIBEL market model

Autores
de Oliveira, AR; Collado, JV; Martínez, SD; Lopes, JAP; Saraiva, JT; Campos, FA;

Publicação
2024 20TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON THE EUROPEAN ENERGY MARKET, EEM 2024

Abstract
The member states of the European Union (EU) are actively reassessing their National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) [1] to jointly address climate challenges and the impacts of the COVID pandemic and gas supply crisis. This study extends the analyses described in [2] by assessing the impact of the updated NECP drafts for Portugal and Spain [3], [4] on the Iberian Electricity Market (MIBEL). For this, we use CEVESA, a market model for the long-term planning and operation of MIBEL that computes the joint dispatch of energy and secondary reserve of the two interconnected single-price zones. Departing from the expected evolution of the electricity generation technologies and demand available in the NECP drafts, joint scenarios for Portugal and Spain are built with the latest CO2 allowances and fuel prices projections and the latest available historical data of hydro and renewable generation profiles. Simulations provide estimates for the expected market prices, technology generation dispatch, and the usage of the capacity of the interconnection lines between both countries, highlighting potential concerns and knowledge on future NECPs.

2024

Evaluation of the Economic Feasibility of Price Arbitrage Operations in the Iberian Electricity Market

Autores
Lobo, F; Saraiva, JT;

Publicação
2024 20TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON THE EUROPEAN ENERGY MARKET, EEM 2024

Abstract
This paper describes a study developed to analyse the interest in investing in Li-ion batteries to perform price arbitrage in the power system of Portugal. In this context, it was developed a methodology to identify the most suitable hours for charging and discharging the energy, and the new market prices were estimated for these hours. It was concluded that at current investment costs in this storage technology, and current market prices, this investment would not be viable in the lifetime of the batteries despite the recent rise of electricity market prices and also the larger price spread. This spread is now larger given the depression of prices at sunny hours that is getting typical in the Iberian electricity market.

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