Nazaré Rego

Abstract
This paper describes a customized risk assessment framework to be applied in military shipbuilding projects. The framework incorporates the Delphi method with visual diagrams, Bayesian Networks (BN) and the expression of expert opinions through linguistic variables. Noisy-OR and Leak Canonical models are used to determine the conditional probabilities of the BN model. The approach can easily be adapted for other shipbuilding construction projects. The visual diagrams that support the Delphi questionnaire favor the comprehensive visualization of the interdependencies between risks, causes, risks and causes, and risks and effects. The applicability of the framework is illustrated through the assessment of risk of two real military shipbuilding projects. This assessment includes a sensitivity analysis that is useful to prioritize mitigation actions. In the two cases studies, the risks with higher probability of occurrence were failures or errors in production, of the contracted, in the requirements, and in planning. The results of the sensitivity analysis showed that a set of mitigation actions directed at relatively easily controllable causes would have achieved important reductions in risk probabilities. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd

Abstract
This paper presents an innovative and flexible approach for recommending the number, size and composition of purchasing groups, for a set of hospitals willing to cooperate, while minimising their shared supply chain costs. This approach makes the financial impact of the various cooperation alternatives transparent to the group and the individual participants, opening way to a negotiation process concerning the allocation of the cooperation costs and gains. The approach was developed around a hybrid Variable Neighbourhood Search (VNS)/Tabu Search metaheuristic, resulting in a flexible tool that can be applied to purchasing groups with different characteristics, namely different operative and market circumstances, and to supply chains with different topologies and atypical cost characteristics. Preliminary computational results show the potential of the approach in solving a broad range of problems.