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Details

  • Name

    Marisa Mendonça Reis
  • Cluster

    Power and Energy
  • Role

    Research Assistant
  • Since

    03rd October 2013
001
Publications

2017

LASSO vector autoregression structures for very short-term wind power forecasting

Authors
Cavalcante, L; Bessa, RJ; Reis, M; Browell, J;

Publication
WIND ENERGY

Abstract
The deployment of smart grids and renewable energy dispatch centers motivates the development of forecasting techniques that take advantage of near real-time measurements collected from geographically distributed sensors. This paper describes a forecasting methodology that explores a set of different sparse structures for the vector autoregression (VAR) model using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) framework. The alternating direction method of multipliers is applied to fit the different LASSO-VAR variants and create a scalable forecasting method supported by parallel computing and fast convergence, which can be used by system operators and renewable power plant operators. A test case with 66 wind power plants is used to show the improvement in forecasting skill from exploring distributed sparse structures. The proposed solution outperformed the conventional autoregressive and vector autoregressive models, as well as a sparse VAR model from the state of the art. Copyright (c) 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

2017

A Scalable Load Forecasting System for Low Voltage Grids

Authors
Reis, M; Garcia, A; Bessa, RJ;

Publication
2017 IEEE MANCHESTER POWERTECH

Abstract
A recent research trend is driven to increase the monitoring and control capabilities of low voltage networks. This paper describes a probabilistic forecasting methodology based on kernel density estimation and that makes use of distributed computing techniques to create a highly scalable forecasting system for LV networks. The results show that the proposed algorithm outperforms three benchmark models (one for point forecast and two for probabilistic forecasts) and demonstrate the applicability of the distributed in-memory computing solution for a practical operational scenario. The ultimate goal is to integrate information about net-load forecasts in power flow optimization frameworks for low voltage networks in order to solve technical constraints with the available home energy management system flexibility.

2017

Predictive management of low-voltage grids

Authors
Reis, M; Garcia, A; Bessa, R; Seca, L; Gouveia, C; Moreira, J; Nunes, P; Matos, PG; Carvalho, F; Carvalho, P;

Publication
CIRED - Open Access Proceedings Journal

Abstract

2017

Probabilistic Price Forecasting for Day-Ahead and Intraday Markets: Beyond the Statistical Model

Authors
Andrade, JR; Filipe, J; Reis, M; Bessa, RJ;

Publication
SUSTAINABILITY

Abstract
Forecasting the hourly spot price of day-ahead and intraday markets is particularly challenging in electric power systems characterized by high installed capacity of renewable energy technologies. In particular, periods with low and high price levels are difficult to predict due to a limited number of representative cases in the historical dataset, which leads to forecast bias problems and wide forecast intervals. Moreover, these markets also require the inclusion of multiple explanatory variables, which increases the complexity of the model without guaranteeing a forecasting skill improvement. This paper explores information from daily futures contract trading and forecast of the daily average spot price to correct point and probabilistic forecasting bias. It also shows that an adequate choice of explanatory variables and use of simple models like linear quantile regression can lead to highly accurate spot price point and probabilistic forecasts. In terms of point forecast, the mean absolute error was 3.03 Euro/MWh for day-ahead market and a maximum value of 2.53 Euro/MWh was obtained for intraday session 6. The probabilistic forecast results show sharp forecast intervals and deviations from perfect calibration below 7% for all market sessions.